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Poker Hand Analysis
Big pot odds, big confusion
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Topic: Big pot odds, big confusion (Read 2720 times)
poonjoe
Full Member
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Posts: 187
Big pot odds, big confusion
«
on:
November 19, 2009, 05:22:06 PM »
Live £40+40 at DTD. Final table, 7 get paid, 7 players remaining. Blinds are 1500/3000/300 and average stack is 50k. Hero has 70k.
Hero has been the most aggressive player at the table... actually the only aggressive player at the table now, after knocking out the other guy on the pay bubble. However, Hero has only shown down premiums. Final table has been going on for about one hour.
2 folds. Hero is MP with
. Raise to 8k. 2 folds.
Small blind raises all in for 20.5k Small blind is an inexperienced player who seems to play very straightforwardly. He has been calling a lot but not raising a lot.
Big Blind is a tighter player. He is playing 70k like Hero. He thinks for a minute then says 'I just call'.
There is 51.2k in the middle, 12.5k to call. Action on Hero...
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GreekStein
Hero Member
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Posts: 20728
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #1 on:
November 19, 2009, 05:32:16 PM »
Call.
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MANTIS01
Hero Member
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Posts: 6734
What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #2 on:
November 19, 2009, 05:54:23 PM »
You're getting a good price to see 5 cards so it depends on the likelihood of that happening. If he's likely to lead/jam the flop based on how he's playing I don't see the point in calling in a game where you already have an edge. There's no doubt bb has either a good hand or a very good hand, I mean he can be the sort of player who picks up jacks and will go on to jam a low flop or he can be trapping with a bigger pair. If he's the type to check it down you have to call but I think the odds are a bit misleading considering villain is putting like 1/3 of his stack in and is likely to get the rest in on the flop.
«
Last Edit: November 19, 2009, 06:03:29 PM by MANTIS01
»
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Cf
Global Moderator
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Posts: 8081
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #3 on:
November 19, 2009, 05:55:54 PM »
Meh.
Call or fold here, either is fine I think.
If you're happy we'll check it down then call. If you suspect BB is gonna commit his stack post-flop then i'm more inclined to just leave them to it, esp as you describe him as a tight player.
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GreekStein
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Posts: 20728
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #4 on:
November 19, 2009, 06:02:27 PM »
I base my decision to call on the fact I've played this comp and the standard is sick bad. He prob has a medium pair or a hand like AQ (poss even AK given how live players often view AK) and wants to see the flop etc and try knock a player out and play it safe.
I think you can call here and play the hand perfectly post flop.
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Cottonbud
Sr. Member
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Posts: 630
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #5 on:
November 19, 2009, 06:06:56 PM »
It's a definate call for me. Your hand flops well, and its KJ sooooooted its so pretty lol! Basically if you hit a Jack here on the flop for top pair on a pretty safe board I'm never passing as the BB shoves almost his whole range here to isolate the short stack. But if you hit a King I would proceed with caution as I think KQ could be a big part of the BB range, but along with AX hands, small to medium pocket pairs wouldn't include AK tho imo.
«
Last Edit: November 19, 2009, 06:09:43 PM by Cottonbud
»
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Mitch
Hero Member
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Posts: 1584
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #6 on:
November 19, 2009, 06:14:44 PM »
I think in this type of comp you can be pretty sure its gonna go check/check/check unless hes got a massive hand. From experience people seem to be more concerned about moving up the pay ladder than taking the pot down when they have a hand like
on a 7 high flop for example, so your prob gonna see all 5 cards.
Nice result btw
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poonjoe
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Posts: 187
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #7 on:
November 19, 2009, 06:40:35 PM »
Well although I have good pot odds KJ is crushed by these player's ranges. Also, it will be very difficult for me to get my 50k into the side pot if I flop ahead. If I flop a pair, he will fold the underpairs when I bet and he will get it in when he has me outkicked or overpaired.
I thought about shoving to isolate, putting the pressure back on the big blind. However I was scared that i) he was trapping with a big pair or ii) he would not be able to fold a lower pair or AQ/AJ given the huge pot odds he would be offered.
That said, I'm getting more than 4-1 on my money, I have position, I have
, and I will still have a decent stack if I call and fold postflop, and there is a good chance we can check it down with a player all-in.
I put this up here because I thought it was one of those situations where there isn't really a good option. Fold, flat, or raise? which is best?
?
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jakally
Hero Member
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Posts: 2003
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #8 on:
November 19, 2009, 08:11:40 PM »
Against anyone decent it's a sigh-fold for me.
You are pretty much crushed by his calling range.
Against a random then mostly call, sometimes shove.
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MC
Super
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Posts: 6260
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #9 on:
November 19, 2009, 09:02:12 PM »
Tough spot.
Calling is fine, folding is fine. Having trouble deciding which is better, it's really borderline I think.
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The Camel
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Posts: 17074
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Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #10 on:
November 20, 2009, 04:05:40 AM »
Folding is horrible imo.
You are getting 5-1 and are very likely to see all 5 cards as most "straightforward" players will (often oncorrectly) check it down to try and knock out the allin player.
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Lucky
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Posts: 1220
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #11 on:
November 20, 2009, 09:56:51 AM »
Quote from: The Camel on November 20, 2009, 04:05:40 AM
Folding is horrible imo.
You are getting 5-1 and are very likely to see all 5 cards as most "straightforward" players will (often oncorrectly) check it down to try and knock out the allin player.
As I read OP, I thought the words "I just call" were an implied invitation to check it down. Did anyone else read it that way?
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BulldozerD
Hero Member
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Posts: 1888
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #12 on:
November 20, 2009, 11:32:25 AM »
call but just be wary that this could be a tarp
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pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 18912
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #13 on:
November 20, 2009, 01:06:17 PM »
i dont think its a call and you look super strong if you shove, no way will he be able to call after cold calling the shove.
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
Cf
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Posts: 8081
Re: Big pot odds, big confusion
«
Reply #14 on:
November 20, 2009, 02:00:04 PM »
Quote from: BulldozerD on November 20, 2009, 11:32:25 AM
call but just be wary that this could be a tarp
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