Another Monte Carlo hand

[MANTIS01]

If villain put in a small raise on the river would we call? It would be difficult to open with this hand, call a 3-bet, call the flop with a draw, hit our hand, and then bet/fold the river to a small raise. That would be a bit nitty vs a random live player. Yet a small raise would increase the chances villain holds a flush because his FE is low. When villain jams on the end his FE is the highest it can be and that makes the flush a little less likely imo. So I think if you call his bet when his FE is low you should call his bet when his FE is high. Folding just because the bet is a lot is not a good reason to fold imo.

Hero says that villain looked strong when he jammed and that would put doubt in my mind that he is actually strong. Hero also has a passive image and has been folded out of the pots he’s played. Finally hero bets a real small 4k into a pot of over 10k on the river. In villain’s eyes that can easily be seen as a vulnerable blocker bet rather than the v-bet we know it is. I’m not denying villain can show us a flush here but I’m nowhere near as certain as some. When the pot contains more than half villain’s remaining stack and hero weak leads into it I think the potential to bluff is far greater than people are implying.

[skolsuper]

Yeah I'd fold to a small raise on the river, especially a minraise. Yes it's so exploitable, and tbh I hate the hero's line in this whole hand (sry James) but against relative unknowns prioritise exploitation over unexploitability. It IS a good spot to bluff-shove if you've got the balls and the hand reading ability, as well as the people-reading ability to know that James will fold a small flush, but not many people do.

So basically I agree with everything you're saying, but I disagree with you on what is basically a point of opinion: how creative/brave your average £1k UK donkament player is. If it's a non-average UK donkament villain like eames/pab/fullflush/ramsey/toby mfkin lewis/any number of other people I've forgotten then I think I know that I have around the top of my range, may have induced something and so call, but against someone I don't recognise it's a fold.

[Rupert]

Not a fan of calling preflop