Solid line or spewy bluff???

[George2Loose]

OK bit of background. I've been opening a fair bit- 3 betting also but nothing out of the ordinary.

Villian has been peeling a LOT showing down hands OOP like J10, Q10 etc so obv likes his broadway cards and probably over values then. Bearing all this in mind is this bluff clever? Will it work against capables or does my line make no sense? I'm obv turning my hand into a bluff because I think he likely has a weak diamond

Full Tilt Poker Game #19531506022: $60,000 Guarantee (144400808), Table 29 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:36:24 ET - 2010/03/24
Seat 1: neilblue (27,702)
Seat 2: InescapableD (14,108)
Seat 3: etirow (38,036)
Seat 4: taylor_smiley (65,052)
Seat 5: George2Loose (24,648)
Seat 6: colrolsteel (30,346)
Seat 7: bastard88 (33,977)
Seat 9: augie00 (17,261)
neilblue antes 125
InescapableD antes 125
etirow antes 125
taylor_smiley antes 125
George2Loose antes 125
colrolsteel antes 125
bastard88 antes 125
augie00 antes 125
colrolsteel posts the small blind of 500
bastard88 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to George2Loose [Ah ]
Helias1 sits down
Helias1 adds 14,322
augie00 has 15 seconds left to act
augie00 folds
neilblue folds
InescapableD has 15 seconds left to act
InescapableD folds
etirow folds
taylor_smiley folds
George2Loose raises to 2,440
colrolsteel folds
bastard88 calls 1,440
*** FLOP *** [ ]
bastard88 checks
George2Loose checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
bastard88 checks
George2Loose bets 2,500
bastard88 calls 2,500
*** RIVER *** [ ] [As]
bastard88 has 15 seconds left to act
bastard88 bets 3,500
George2Loose has 15 seconds left to act
George2Loose raises to 19,583, and is all in

[EvilPie]

If he likes his broadway cards what makes you think he has a weak diamond?

[George2Loose]

His river bet mainly has lead me to think he's betting pretty weak. I just don't know whether my line looks like nut flushes/boats


U would have folded pre wouldn't u Matt? 

[EvilPie]

His river bet mainly has lead me to think he's betting pretty weak. I just don't know whether my line looks like nut flushes/boats


U would have folded pre wouldn't u Matt? 

Of course

He goes check, check and calls your small bet. Hardly a strong looking line.

He seems to want a cheap show down so why does he come out firing the river when it pairs up?

I'd be more concerned about his line than your own. It just doesn't add up.

I guess he could be floating the turn with air but if that's the case we should just do a call.

I can't see him value betting here with a weak flush so it's either big flush, house or air. Either way you're shove doesn't achieve much.

[George2Loose]

Do you not think he bets bigger with air?

[MC]

I dunno man, what exactly are you trying to rep.

Any conceivable full house you could have doesn't take your line, and will he really buy that you checked the flop with the ? You would flat with the /Jd etc.

Perhaps this stuff only matters if villain is a thinking player. I guess you have to hope he has a diamond a 7 or lower, because then you do win a pot you wouldn't have if you'd have called, but the -Kd should snap you off here really.

[Blatch]

[ ] Average online player will care what you could have or what your repping

[ x ] Average online player will see his cards and bet / raise / call solely on this

[MC]

[ ] Average online player will care what you could have or what your repping

[ x ] Average online player will see his cards and bet / raise / call solely on this

Whilst I agree with this to some extent, I still think what we are repping is pertinent to any hand...

[George2Loose]

I spose the check on the flop is inconsistent with my whole line. Im probably only repping the flopped flush. It was just his line that lead me to bluff here

[outragous76]

This could be a blocker bet with a bad ace by him. Its not a great play but it SHOULD remove any plays that you have without nut hands.

I kinda don't mind your play. I can't see a hand he can call with except a big D and even then he might hate life. (just cant see him having a boat  - maybe 33 - but thats just unlucky),

Villain dependant play for me, but I just call on the end cause I'm bad

[EvilPie]

You keep talking about how your line looks and what you're repping but have you stopped to consider that your oppo might not have a clue about any of that?

If you opr him you'll see he's only played 46 comps. There could be reasons for this obviously but let's just assume it means he hasn't played much.

Chances are he's got something, probably a little diamond. Chances are he thinks he's winning. Chances are that when you shove he'll snap rather than stop to think what you might actually have that's beating him.

Just call.

[EvilPie]

I reckon he'll have the and it's 50/50 whether he'll call or fold.

You're giving him too much credit with the 50/50

He'll snap 

50 50 would be 

[outragous76]

I think people are having "dubai" syndrome here

Most villains just dont think that deeply about hands - so dont give them too much credit unless they deserve it

A raise on the end here from George has to look strong.

The villain will snap with . I think he is going to show up with a smaller diamond or a carppy A.

So why does he bet the river? - to pick up a pot which george has played weird - yeah maybe. But his bet on the end looks as weird as Georges line to me.

I still think that he has a bad A or crappy D and therefore this bet should work alot of the time against a poor player.

George are we anywhere near the money or are there any other considerations in the hand?

[T_Mar]

Why didn't you bet the flop out of interest?  Enough hands in villians range that you beat (given read) that would continue (gutshots and Jx with diamond etc)... seems like a good spot to continue betting? Not ideal if he c/r's but cant see it being terrible getting 24bb in here, given all the big draws he can have?

[outragous76]

Why didn't you bet the flop out of interest?  Enough hands in villians range that you beat (given read) that would continue (gutshots and Jx with diamond etc)... seems like a good spot to continue betting? Not ideal if he c/r's but cant see it being terrible getting 24bb in here, given all the big draws he can have?

villain can c/r all in with nothing and George prob doesnt want to have to call