EW betting...not bored anymore

[Jamier-Host]

I think Dom knows what he is on about with this stuff.  Ultimately this thread is as much about monitoring and controlling his own bets as it is a pure "tipping" thread I believe.  Correct me if i'm wrong!

It is easy to spot something that looks amazing and put way too much on it, when slow and steady should win the dough.

Give it time.  I've not been betting on the selections myself, but still read with interest each day to see how things are going.

[Nico29]

Nico

Nice to follow what you are doing but, with the amount of bets you are putting through surely there is only one outcome to this challenge!!!

Good Luck Anyway

Lots of Volume, many +ev spots, rather than one or 2-is not a bad thing.

Thus i'll agree with you, there's only 1 outcome, i'm gonna get the lot.

I'm not exactly doing anything abnormal, many pro gamblers have far more bets than this, some have 1 or 2 a month or even a year. It's all about what's best for your own style, lots of bets and small +ev spots works for me. I've done this for years and don't lose on ew betting.

It's the other types of bets that hurt my roll, hence this challenge.

I'm v happy with how it's gone so far.

Oh and cheers jamie for the support m8.

Ok update time...

[Nico29]

I think Dom knows what he is on about with this stuff.  Ultimately this thread is as much about monitoring and controlling his own bets as it is a pure "tipping" thread I believe.  Correct me if i'm wrong!

It is easy to spot something that looks amazing and put way too much on it, when slow and steady should win the dough.

Give it time.  I've not been betting on the selections myself, but still read with interest each day to see how things are going.

Yeah it's certainly not meant as a tipping thread tbh, ppl can take it or leave it.

If ppl want to follow me in fair play, if not fair play 2.

It's meant to be me monitoring a sample of bets and checking out my staking plans.

And me gaining some discipline.


Last results  of day were:

630 BEV- 1 PT EW MEDICI PALACE@4-1- UNPLACED.

750 SOUTH- 2PTS EW TALENTI@15-8-2ND=2.75 PTS RETURNED


Balance is now 37.03.

[Nico29]

Done a couple of things today i probably shouldn't have, but we live and learn.

There are hardly any dirty ew races today, 2/3 maximum.

Early on there is only 1 horse who is filthy on the place terms. Thus i have backed it, but i'm kinda regretting being so hasty.

Basically the race is the 7.25 wetherby and the horse is Nothingbutthetruth. Now the problem is it's only a 5 runner race, therefore 1 withdrawl and i'm in trouble as it will revert to win only.

So unlike me if anyone actually fancied backing this horse ew, and this is a great ew bet imo, it's 3-1 with some 10-3 available and the next in the betting bar the odds on fav is 25-1.

It's a race that really illustrates why it's fine to back ew in a race with less than 8 runners, the place part is simply put... massive value.

The place market on betfair indicates it's about a 1.37 shot max to place,yet with the 1/4 odds the place with the books we are getting a minimum of 1.75, which is unreal value. We are getting double it's actual/correct price.

However, the main problem is backing it so early on like i have done, wait till later ftw incase of a withdrawl and then it's almost a bet to nothing.

Silly.

Also in my haste to get my bets on nice and early i followed some early money on a raggy outsider in one of the other ew play races. Now i look at it again the support on betfair seems fragile and i'm thinking i may have picked a wrong un.


Oh well at least im aware of the mistakes and hopefully won't suffer too much from them today.

Here are my possibly 'flawed' bets for the day:

250 AYR- 0.5PT EW CLASSLIN@33-1

725 WETHERBY- 2 PTS EW   NOTHINGBUTTHETRUTH@3-1

Balance now 32.03.

[Nico29]

Yep as suspected they pulled one out of that 725 race, luckily it was mine! LOL

Balance now 36.03.

[Nico29]

Flawed selections ftw from now on.

Just watched a replay of the 250 race.

If the jockey doesn't get the horse a little boxed in early on and delivers its run a touch earlier i gen think it wld have won.

Still 3rd and a small profit.

Also got one last selection for the day- in a 5 runner race where the place is strong on betfair, and bar the fav everything else is drifting like a barge.

One of those where the make up of the race seems to suit the selection well., firstly the result of the 250 is:


3RD 0.5PTS EW@33-1=3.8 POINTS RETURNED (39.83)



540 CLOMEL- 1PT EW VALBUCCA@7-2 (37.83)


Balance now 37.83.

[Nico29]

Yawn another 2nd and i wish i was on rakeback for these bets

Still it's really interesting trying to only bet the value place on ew whether there is 1 or 20 selections in a day.

Believe it or not i am getting more disciplined, there's about 10 horses i'd have liked to have backed today, but only a couple qualified for this challenge so i didn't bet on the others.

Result:

1 PT EW 2ND@9-2 BPG=2.12 POINTS RETURNED. (39.95)

Balance now 39.95.

0.05 down overall-i'll cope somehow.

[TheChipPrince]

Good start to the diary Nico, no sign of it fading yet.  

While I'm not completly clued up on E/W backing of hroses, or horses in general, any aspect of betting fascinates me.

Keep it please.

[Josedinho]

Yeh keep it up. I never really thought there was value in backing a horse ew unless you are at least going to get your total stake back if it places so would like to see how this goes long term.

[Nico29]

Good start to the diary Nico, no sign of it fading yet. 

While I'm not completly clued up on E/W backing of hroses, or horses in general, any aspect of betting fascinates me.

Keep it please.

Yeh keep it up. I never really thought there was value in backing a horse ew unless you are at least going to get your total stake back if it places so would like to see how this goes long term.

Cheers guys.

I know what you mean jose about thinking there isn't much point in backing ew unless you are getting at least your stake back, i thought this for years.

I remember the first time i started going in my local betting shop as a 16 year old who shouldn't really have been there but was. I started betting ew on everything trying to side with caution.

The oldish woman behind the counter kindly pointed out that backing ew at 6/4 wasn't really the way to go and i should be looking at 4, 5/1 minimum.

I stood by that principle for years, while being a mug punter on all gambling more or less for quite a while.

Eventually i learnt from a few shrewd ppl that betting was all about value.

Ew betting is something that the shrewdest guys always seemed to be making bucket loads on.

It's hard to explain it but it's all about the long term and place value. Basically there are certain types of races which contrive to allow normally the second favourite a rather generous place part.

Ideally the bookies wouldn't take bets on these horses as it makes no sense from a business point of view, they will lose on these selections overall.

Anyway time to try and prove this, i'll try and find some selections for tonight...

[Nico29]

Just one today.

It's a weird one this as i almost left it out then decided the place part was juicy enough.

I really hope i would have done this on a day with ten selections, part of me worries if i've only backed it due to zero other possibilities.

It's dirty but not filthy.

720 STRATFORD- 1PT EW COOL TOUCH@3-1

Balance now 37.95.

[Nico29]

Just one today.

It's a weird one this as i almost left it out then decided the place part was juicy enough.

I really hope i would have done this on a day with ten selections, part of me worries if i've only backed it due to zero other possibilities.

It's dirty but not filthy.

720 STRATFORD- 1PT EW COOL TOUCH@3-1

Balance now 37.95.

That was 3rd so returned 1.6 points.

Balance now 39.55.

[Nico29]

Couple of selections so far today, i think there may be 1 or 2 more later, though not totally sure.

510 CATTERICK- 1PT EW ROYAL RECORD@4-1

530 NAVAN- 1PT EW DANCE ON BY@10-3

Balance now 35.55. (40 Points starting balance)

[Nico29]

Cldnt resist this race as i think both are place value at party prices due to the odds on fav, and sometimes these 'certs' do get turned over.

The negative is that it's only the first 2 to place due to being a 6 runner race, 1, 2 ftw please!

410 HAYDOCK- 0.5PTS EW BALLISTA@7-1
                        0.5 PTS EW BUSSA@14-1

Balance now 33.55.

[Josedinho]

Had a look at this race and then watched it. Still just following at the moment but that one was a race i would be more likely to get involved in.