EW betting...not bored anymore

[Nico29]

1 last race also tonight.

In the 845 Doncaster we have a michael jarvis hotpot which actually looks relatively exposed.

He also trains the unraced 2nd fav and at 7-1 i'd rather have a small punt on that ew than take odds on on a horse that hasn't won in 5 attempts.

Its a maiden race and the market may indicate that a further horse, or even upping the stake could be advisable, nearer the off.

But for now:

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (56.97)

Balance=56.97.

I've topped up again after studying the 845 market and race again.

The 2nd fav has quite a bit of interest in its place price on betfair, prev experiences tell me this 1 cld go a bit shorter so im gambling on 7-1 being a fair price, 8-1 with vc but gg having an account with them.

Also i see there is interest in the easterby trained newcomer happy the man who is a juicily priced 25s. The race does look open to something that has a bit more in the ol locker compared to more exposed types.

Therefore:

In addition to my initial 0.5pt ew bet on city ground@7s.

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (1PT EW TOTAL) (55.97)
                            0.5 PTS EW HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (54.97)

Balance=54.97.

[Nico29]

1 last race also tonight.

In the 845 Doncaster we have a michael jarvis hotpot which actually looks relatively exposed.

He also trains the unraced 2nd fav and at 7-1 i'd rather have a small punt on that ew than take odds on on a horse that hasn't won in 5 attempts.

Its a maiden race and the market may indicate that a further horse, or even upping the stake could be advisable, nearer the off.

But for now:

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (56.97)

Balance=56.97.

I've topped up again after studying the 845 market and race again.

The 2nd fav has quite a bit of interest in its place price on betfair, prev experiences tell me this 1 cld go a bit shorter so im gambling on 7-1 being a fair price, 8-1 with vc but gg having an account with them.

Also i see there is interest in the easterby trained newcomer happy the man who is a juicily priced 25s. The race does look open to something that has a bit more in the ol locker compared to more exposed types.

Therefore:

In addition to my initial 0.5pt ew bet on city ground@7s.

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (1PT EW TOTAL) (55.97)
                            0.5 PTS EW HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (54.97)

Balance=54.97.

Been unable to resist topping up again on Happy the man, it's strong on betfair, very strong on the place.

845 DONCASTER-0.5 PTS EW (1PT EW TOTAL) HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (53.97)

Balance=53.97.

[Nico29]

1 last race also tonight.

In the 845 Doncaster we have a michael jarvis hotpot which actually looks relatively exposed.

He also trains the unraced 2nd fav and at 7-1 i'd rather have a small punt on that ew than take odds on on a horse that hasn't won in 5 attempts.

Its a maiden race and the market may indicate that a further horse, or even upping the stake could be advisable, nearer the off.

But for now:

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (56.97)

Balance=56.97.

I've topped up again after studying the 845 market and race again.

The 2nd fav has quite a bit of interest in its place price on betfair, prev experiences tell me this 1 cld go a bit shorter so im gambling on 7-1 being a fair price, 8-1 with vc but gg having an account with them.

Also i see there is interest in the easterby trained newcomer happy the man who is a juicily priced 25s. The race does look open to something that has a bit more in the ol locker compared to more exposed types.

Therefore:

In addition to my initial 0.5pt ew bet on city ground@7s.

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (1PT EW TOTAL) (55.97)
                            0.5 PTS EW HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (54.97)

Balance=54.97.

Been unable to resist topping up again on Happy the man, it's strong on betfair, very strong on the place.

845 DONCASTER-0.5 PTS EW (1PT EW TOTAL) HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (53.97)

Balance=53.97.

Happy the man certainly doesn't describe me after watching that nag run greener than you cld ever imagine.

As for the 2nd fav, i'll be looking out for that next time out, have the feeling it really didn't want to beat the fav(stablemate ftw eh), so dropped out last, left it way late and ran on nice without ever troubling, hmmmm.

Certainly not my best day, apologies if anyone did follow some of these horses running like dogs, this thread/diary is all about me gaining some discipline from my betting, but i do hope to highlight value.

Hopefully i'll gain more discipline/value and funds over the weekend!

Result:

845 DONCASTER- 1 PT EW CITY GROUND@7-1-2ND= 2.4 PTS RETURNED (56.37)
                            1PT EW HAPPY THE MAN@25-1-UNPLACED (56.37)

Balance=56.37 pts. (40 pts starting bank)

[Nico29]

Quite a few punts today.



215 HEXHAM- 1 PT EW MAJESTIC MAYHEM@9-4 (54.37)

255 LISTOWEL- 1.5PTS EW FIRST BEAUTY@3-1 (51.37)*
                         1PT EW MODEL COUNTY LOSS@4-1 (49.37)*

400 EPSOM- 1PT EW AZMEEL@12-1 (47.37)

425 HEXHAM- 1PT EW  BOW SCHOOL@7-2 (45.37)

440 WORCESTER- 1.5 PTS EW OFF GALIVANTING@7-2 (42.37)*

And all 2 X0.5PTS EW ACCAS (40.37)

*2X 0.5PTS EW DBLES (38.37)

Really gone for this today, if they all lose im out of profit and into loss.

Few nice selections today though, a race or 2 where the place is mass value.

As for the derby selection i'm on workforce ante post (before this challenge started), but the value isn't there now.

So i felt i should have a punt on the race due to it being 1/4 the odds and actually not a terrible ew race with quite a short priced and imo beatable fav.

Its not a massive fancy but the place is slight value and i've had a tip for it too.

Anyway im off out, time to enjoy the sunshine.

Balance now 38.37.

[Nico29]

Awww man if only workforce had been included in this at 14s, wlda been nearing the 80pt mark, meh.

Anyway a mixed day mainly let down by the accumulator bets and a couple of no shows.

Results:

215 HEXHAM- 1 PT EW MAJESTIC MAYHEM@9-4-WON=4.7 PTS RETURNED (43.07)

255 LISTOWEL- 1.5PTS EW FIRST BEAUTY@7-2 BPG*-2ND=2.55 PTS RETURNED (45.62)
                         1PT EW MODEL COUNTY LOSS@4-1 *-LOST (45.62)

400 EPSOM- 1PT EW AZMEEL@12-1-LOST (45.62)

425 HEXHAM- 1PT EW  BOW SCHOOL@7-2 -LOST (45.62)

440 WORCESTER- 1.5 PTS EW OFF GALIVANTING@7-2-WON=9.3 PTS RETURNED (54.92)*

And all 2 X0.5PTS EW ACCAS-LOST (54.92)

*2X 0.5PTS EW DBLES (54.92)-(A)=1ST&2ND= 1.45 PTS RETURNED (56.37) (B)=1ST&LOST (56.37)

Balance= 56.37.

OMG- I get exactly the points back i placed today after 2 winners, 1 place and 3 losers.

Like i've said b4, wish i had rakeback on these!

[Nico29]

Been struggling for a selection today, gone for one who is strong on betfair and in a wide open race, not filthy, just solid ew.

405 LISTOWEL- 1PT EW NOOR AL AYAAM@10-1 (54.37)

Balance= 54.37.

[Nico29]

Def guilty of betting on something for the sake of it today.

Yeah this selection was an arb and thus pretty strong on betfair both on win and place, but it wasn't really a dirty ew selection imo, more of a punt.

I could be being results based but its just like in the derby yesterday when i took a tip and included it rather than just accepting that my prev value selection in the race was seperate but still good enough for me.

Hopefully learnt a lesson over selecting more carefully today, again don't get me wrong value is value and dirty ew is....well dirty ew. But for this challenge to succeed i must be very disciplined.

Having said that if there are 8 value ew selections tmrw and they all lose, i wont be complaining, ill just have stuck to value.

End of slight weird rant.

Result:

405 LISTOWEL- 1PT EW NOOR AL AYAAM@10-1-UNPLACED (54.37)

Balance= 54.37.

[The Camel]

Mecox Bay @ 7/2 looks v strong this afternoon.

[The Camel]

Mecox Bay @ 7/2 looks v strong this afternoon.

Price bad, horse good

[Nico29]

Mecox Bay @ 7/2 looks v strong this afternoon.

Price bad, horse good

Nice result-BPG ftw eh?

Im going to take a couple of days off this to make sure I stay disciplined, wasn't happy with some of my weekend flurry of bets i didn't need to do.

Oh and I need to play some poker.

[Nico29]

Def taking it slower with this for now.

Although july time i intend to crank it right up and reach my orig target of 200 points.

Probably going vegas soon so need all available funds and need to grind some online, so can't spend too much time studying this etc.

However a keen eyed friend of mine told me about this race today.

It's pretty filthy.

Fav is wayyyyyyyy too short for me, it's another maiden and the fav looks more exposed than others, and as 2nd fav we have a stoute moore newcomer.

The derby combo ew is almost a bet to nothing for me here.

Place was VERY strong on betfair-calmed down a bit now, and i really cannot see how such a type won't be fighting it out come the business end.

Also the 3rd fav is another unraced newcomer from andrew balding, this one is also pretty strong on betfair and bar the fav these 2 don't have much to beat.

Im gonna put the farm a bit on the line here and also rfcst it.

320 SAILS- 2 PTS EW WARM MEMORIES@3-1 (50.37)
                  1 PT EW LASER RUBY@12-1 (48.37)

0.5PT RFCST (47.37)

Balance=47.37


Ps warm memories is now 4-1, wiiiii

[Nico29]

Def taking it slower with this for now.

Although july time i intend to crank it right up and reach my orig target of 200 points.

Probably going vegas soon so need all available funds and need to grind some online, so can't spend too much time studying this etc.

However a keen eyed friend of mine told me about this race today.

It's pretty filthy.

Fav is wayyyyyyyy too short for me, it's another maiden and the fav looks more exposed than others, and as 2nd fav we have a stoute moore newcomer.

The derby combo ew is almost a bet to nothing for me here.

Place was VERY strong on betfair-calmed down a bit now, and i really cannot see how such a type won't be fighting it out come the business end.

Also the 3rd fav is another unraced newcomer from andrew balding, this one is also pretty strong on betfair and bar the fav these 2 don't have much to beat.

Im gonna put the farm a bit on the line here and also rfcst it.

320 SAILS- 2 PTS EW WARM MEMORIES@3-1 (50.37)
                  1 PT EW LASER RUBY@12-1 (48.37)

0.5PT RFCST (47.37)

Balance=47.37


Ps warm memories is now 4-1, wiiiii

Results based perhaps but silly silly me.

3rd fav was so weak near the off which really showed how that would run.

Again i should def leave my more questionable maiden bets to nearer the off, although it is tough to get on.

Fav wasn't 'exposed' after 2 runs, compared to non raced sorts yeah, but who isn't.

Still happy always taking a fav like that on long term.

Warm memories just seemed to lack experience and is def the type of bet this challenge is all about.

Maybe learnt something there, type like the 2nd fav is def worth a strong bet always, anything else keep to 0.5pts ew at most, and leave the farm fcsts for the real dreamers!

Oh well back to the grind and having decimated a lot of the profit here, lets leave it for a while before it all goes.

Result:


320 SAILS- 2 PTS EW WARM MEMORIES@4-1 BPG-2ND=3.6 PTS RETURNED (50.97)
                  1 PT EW LASER RUBY@12-1-UNPLACED (50.97)

Balance= 50.97 pts. (Starting bank 40 pts)

Before i go to vegas i intend to do some kind of analysis of the stats of this challenge so far. Should be fun, and i really do feel im learning a great great deal from this challenge.

Scattergun is still a slight problem but i am constantly striving for long term value and i am def annoyed if i break rules by chasing short term value over the longer+ev option.

[The Camel]

Knightfire ew @ 9/1 in the next at Kempton looks pretty good.

Although I detest backing horses ridden by Shane Kelly.

[Nico29]

Balance= 50.97 pts. (Starting bank 40 pts)

Before i go to vegas i intend to do some kind of analysis of the stats of this challenge so far. Should be fun, and i really do feel im learning a great great deal from this challenge.

Scattergun is still a slight problem but i am constantly striving for long term value and i am def annoyed if i break rules by chasing short term value over the longer+ev option.

Ok so im back from vegas and going to start up this again.

Pre vegas analysis didn't happen and i'll need to delaze to get round to that.

I'll start off from the 50.97 balance which began at 40 and see if i can get this up to the 200 bank i planned for, watch out this could get scary, i fancy punting!

Will post a selection if and when...

[Nico29]

Starting Balance=50.97.

215 NEWTON ABBOT-  1.5PTS EW MINNEAPOLIS@11-4 (47.97)
                                  1PT EW UNLEASHED@4-1 (45.97)

650 RIPON- 1.5PTS EW SULTAN'S CHOICE@5-2 (42.97)

840 WINDSOR- 1PT EW BERNIES MOON@25-1 (40.97)


920 RIPON- 1PT EW SQUALL@9-2 (38.97)
                   1PT EW BURSARY@9-2 (36.97)

Def looks a little scattergun again but there are quite a few dirty races today. I've actually left out a couple the old me would have thrown in.

Not gonna go for any multis as im gonna try and limit those to 2 point plus selections.

Balance is now 36.97.