Live Cash river line.

[SuuPRlim]

Another semi-interesting spot last night wondered what a few people would do here because the hand sparked a decent amoutn of debate after the game.

£1.£2 I open to £10 playing about £800 with  .

get two peels from a loose passive reg in the CO (same as the MP from other JJ thread) and one from a random chinese from the blinds.

Flops comes
 

check (chinese) I bet £22 CO calls binese folds

turn 

I bet £60 CO calls

river  (cant say i was too disapointed with this card lol)

Now villian here is a bit of a station (as in he would never fold a 9 here imo - but would never call a 2) he has shown no agression in this pot so far but he is more than capable of value betting thin.

Pot is £195 I have about £700 behind villain has about £400.

River line? Bet/Check, sizing?

[The Camel]

What % of the time is he raising with a flush if you bet in your opinion?

[hettonmobster]

who was the villain? against random i haven't played before i bet 140ish, however if he's a calling station maybe overbet the river.

[Patonius2000]

Well you can't check. Bet call 120-150.

[SuuPRlim]

What % of the time is he raising with a flush if you bet in your opinion?

I think he would raise the nut flush for sure and call everything else - he is exteremely loose so has lots of diamond combos.

always bets a flush, and probs never folds to a c/r (I once c/r 4b 6b all in light on the river of a paored board and he hero'd me with second nut striaght lol that was about a yr ago!)

[SuuPRlim]

who was the villain? against random i haven't played before i bet 140ish, however if he's a calling station maybe overbet the river.

I never remember his name but he plays a fair bit (btw do you play the gala cashh game regulally? PM me lol im curious as to who you are )
he works for a bookie and is quite skinny if that helps, nice guy pretty quiet

[hettonmobster]

i play occasionally over there sometimes alea and sometimes huddersfield. probably played with me before.

[SuuPRlim]

i play occasionally over there sometimes alea and sometimes huddersfield. probably played with me before.

I see, ty

[SuuPRlim]

Bet £120.

please can you give me a brief analysis of your thought process? (sorry to be cheeky!)

[DMorgan]

I think it really depends on how light we think that he's calling the turn. If he has to have something to call the turn then I check because I think he's betting the vast majority of the range that he calls a river bet with (4x, strong 9x, flushes). However if he can float flop and turn with ace high or be calling two with 2x, 53, Ax that has a gutshot etc then I think we should bet to allow him to hero call.

So for me it depends on his turn calling range but if you think that its the tighter range (4x, strong 9x, flushes) then checking is certainly the best play. If its the looser range then I bet £145 because to a non-believer that looks really bluffy and gets us a good chunk of value when he calls

[SuuPRlim]

hopefully my analysis of the villain is enough to allow people to answer this,

but given the action and how you perceive the villains range do you think there is any elasticity in the bet sizing, i.e between a half pot and 2x pot bet?

Bet £120.

please can you give me a brief analysis of your thought process? (sorry to be cheeky!)

No problem, I bet because villain is mostly passive and a checkraise looks proper strong, I chose £120 because this amount seems so average as to induce slightly more thin raises, bluffs and hero calls.

ty.

I think it really depends on how light we think that he's calling the turn. If he has to have something to call the turn then I check because I think he's betting the vast majority of the range that he calls a river bet with (4x, strong 9x, flushes). However if he can float flop and turn with ace high or be calling two with 2x, 53, Ax that has a gutshot etc then I think we should bet to allow him to hero call.

So for me it depends on his turn calling range but if you think that its the tighter range (4x, strong 9x, flushes) then checking is certainly the best play. If its the looser range then I bet £145 because to a non-believer that looks really bluffy and gets us a good chunk of value when he calls

really good ty

[Whollyflush]

Id overbet, his calling range on this river is like flushes/trips. These type stations peel early streets real light but dont tend to hero call rivers light.

His river calling range is in-elastic and therefore i doubt he can hero fold a flush/trips whilst i also won't give him credit for been able to value raise river if we bet say 1/2 pot as these guys love a showdown.

Something over £250 i think.

[Mitch]

In this situation im probably going to try and make my bet look as much like a stopper as possible.

Its unlikely hes going to hero for anything near pot size plus here with a 2, and betting smaller allows room for him to rep the diamond if he has a missed straight draw or even turn hands like 77 into a bluff. (dont have any idea if the opponent is even thinking that way).

Also he should be raising any decent flush for value here a lot of the time. Most 4's are going to raise the turn imo, if hes slow played 24 your getting it in anyway.

Im betting £85 here.

Also might even sigh call a deuce here if hes got his sherrif hat on.

[SuuPRlim]

Id overbet, his calling range on this river is like flushes/trips. These type stations peel early streets real light but dont tend to hero call rivers light.

His river calling range is in-elastic and therefore i doubt he can hero fold a flush/trips whilst i also won't give him credit for been able to value raise river if we bet say 1/2 pot as these guys love a showdown.

Something over £250 i think.

Disagree. First, I think there are a lot of potential hero calls in his range, 2x + all pocket pairs, even some A-high (sometimes they get really stubborn). Secondly I also think people don't like to chase a flush and then not raise when they hit on the river, but they might flat if we surprise them with an overbet.

Also, I don't think trips are in his range at all. There are 2 diamonds on the flop, real live-donks will raise to protect trip there.

I used this process to remove from the equation, I thought he had either 35/A2 or diamonds fwiw

[AlexMartin]

be nice if you overbet bluff and hes seen you do them............