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Poker Hand Analysis
bink...errr wait a minute wtf
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Topic: bink...errr wait a minute wtf (Read 2348 times)
NigDawG
Hero Member
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Posts: 1374
bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
on:
August 27, 2010, 12:59:24 PM »
$55 f/o on stars
blinds 150/300 with antes
villain 1 is a weak player who's been loose-ish/passive. i've seen him open limp KK in the hijack and barrel 3 streets for ~1/2 pot in position vs the bb. also seen him peel mid pos vs utg 4x off of 22bb with 67s and doubled up getting all in on 774T (flatted flop cbet then min rs/call shove on turn). he has peeled a few opens vs 15-20bb stacks and folded to cbets/delayed cbets. also overlimped a few times but i think this is only the 2nd time he has open limped and we've been on same table around 45 mins.
villain 2 seems fairly competent, was playing decent/aggressive and winning hands without showdown but has just lost a 20k pot the previous hand to this with AQ<44 on A546Q in a 3bet pot and now has a 14bb stack.
hero has been playing very aggressive, mostly without showdown but did very recently get to showdown opening A4s utg, check/calling flop, checking turn and betting 3,300 into 3,825 on river of AT324. having said that, vs villain 1 thats probably not going through his mind right now.
villain 1 open limps utg+1 out of ~15k, another mid pos limper and i complete the sb covering everyone with
villain 2 checks his option.
flop
checks around. turn
i lead for 900 into 1,425, villain 2 calls in the bb and villain 1 overcalls, other limper folds.
river
pot is 4,225. villain 2 only has 3,000 left and villain 1 has ~14,000 left. i bet 3,600 which villain 2 SNAP calls all in to. almost as fast villain 1 shoves for ~10.5k more........
my thoughts....i'm not sure if the snap from shorty could be a sign of him being tilted, that he has a monster, or just if he isn't folding Qx. like i say prior to this hand he seemed decent, if he was tilted he would just shove pre a large % of the time and i'd of thought he'd lead Qx on the flop a decent % of the time too so i'm thinking its pretty likely he has 6x... which in turn makes it very difficult for villain 1 to have 6x himself (which makes up a huge part of the value range that i can actually beat) and f difficult for him to have quads. i have a fairly important blocker in the
but im thinking there's also a >0% chance villain 1 has AA/KK in some epic display of slowplay.
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Christopher Brammer
mondatoo
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Posts: 22507
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #1 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:13:17 PM »
Vs said villain this looks a fold to me.I can't see him doing this with any hand you beat and as descirbed he can definitely have QQ,JJ,99 here.
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SuuPRlim
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Posts: 10437
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #2 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM »
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
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NigDawG
Hero Member
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Posts: 1374
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #3 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely
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Christopher Brammer
mondatoo
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Posts: 22507
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #4 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:28:45 PM »
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely
Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.
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NigDawG
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Posts: 1374
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #5 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:31:50 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:28:45 PM
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely
Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.
hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?
«
Last Edit: August 27, 2010, 01:33:50 PM by NigDawG
»
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Christopher Brammer
outragous76
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Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #6 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:36:05 PM »
never folding
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mondatoo
Hero Member
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Posts: 22507
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #7 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:38:33 PM »
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:31:50 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:28:45 PM
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely
hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?
Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.
Thought you where describing him as weak passive.I thought you saying the fact he wouldn't think about your A4s play meaning he was pretty bad and thus unlikely to limp some of them hands ?
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NigDawG
Hero Member
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Posts: 1374
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #8 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:49:10 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:38:33 PM
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:31:50 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:28:45 PM
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely
hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?
Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.
Thought you where describing him as weak passive.I thought you saying the fact he wouldn't think about your A4s play meaning he was pretty bad and thus unlikely to limp some of them hands ?
the comment about the A4s play was merely to demonstrate that he might not even notice the % of the pot i value bet on the river then , which is very similar to how much i bet here
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Christopher Brammer
mondatoo
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22507
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #9 on:
August 27, 2010, 01:55:29 PM »
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:49:10 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:38:33 PM
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:31:50 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on August 27, 2010, 01:28:45 PM
Quote from: NigDawG on August 27, 2010, 01:25:31 PM
Quote from: SuuPRlim on August 27, 2010, 01:18:40 PM
siggggggggggh.
I dont spose he ever has
, or naked
?
brgh idk I think id really struggle to fold.
would think an optimistic range would be something like 64s, 65s, 76s, 86s, 96s, A6s, T8s, KTs, QJo, QJs, 66, 99, JJ, QQ, AQ, KK, AA.....so there is some stuff we beat in there but some of it's reallyyyy questionable/unlikely
hmm maybe i've given the wrong impression...he isn't tight by any means lol. he's been pretty loose it's just usually raised by either myself, villain 2, or a short stack before it gets to him if that makes more sense?
Seems really unlikely he'd open limp for only the second time in 45mins and have that sort of range.
Thought you where describing him as weak passive.I thought you saying the fact he wouldn't think about your A4s play meaning he was pretty bad and thus unlikely to limp some of them hands ?
the comment about the A4s play was merely to demonstrate that he might not even notice the % of the pot i value bet on the river then , which is very similar to how much i bet here
Ah ok,tbh I doubt I fold this in real time but it does look a sucky/fold spot.
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
Hero Member
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Posts: 8039
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #10 on:
August 28, 2010, 04:15:54 AM »
meh, given flop checkround, turn pairup and river action it looks like a clear fold.
guy would have to be really good to be turning a hand like 2p into a bluff here and i wouldnt give said villain that sort of credit.
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buzzharvey22
Hero Member
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Posts: 1437
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #11 on:
August 28, 2010, 04:22:55 AM »
feels like a fold to me
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pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 18912
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #12 on:
August 30, 2010, 03:35:58 AM »
its a fold
[ ] i fold irl
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
DMorgan
Hero Member
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Posts: 4440
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #13 on:
August 30, 2010, 08:56:53 AM »
Probably not folding here given that we're getting 2.2 to 1
Its such a gross spot 'cos I'd expect him to be way more likely to limp UTG with AA/KK than with QQ/JJ but the more I look at it the more actually looks like JJ.
I guess on a good day I could fold this. At least you're definitely gunna see both hands
Results?
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
NigDawG
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1374
Re: bink...errr wait a minute wtf
«
Reply #14 on:
August 30, 2010, 09:33:35 AM »
Quote from: DMorgan on August 30, 2010, 08:56:53 AM
Probably not folding here given that we're getting 2.2 to 1
Its such a gross spot 'cos I'd expect him to be way more likely to limp UTG with AA/KK than with QQ/JJ but the more I look at it the more actually looks like JJ.
I guess on a good day I could fold this. At least you're definitely gunna see both hands
Results?
i called the bb had
and the other guy had
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Christopher Brammer
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