I discussed the hand with 2 PLO players after the hand and both said very different things and now I don't know if I'm levelling myself.
I don't wanna say my opinion yet until I've had some others. If anyone has anything interesting to say about the rest of the hand (sizing etc), fire away but if not I mainly want to discuss the flop....
Please only post if you have reasonable experience / knowledge of PLO.
Full Tilt Poker Game #25860584113: Table Vroom (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 16:30:31 ET - 2010/11/25
Seat 1: pete royal ($166.45)
Seat 2: phoenix21xx ($578.90)
Seat 3: GreekStein ($274.65)
Seat 4: erdissimo ($75.80)
Seat 5: Morkgohome ($60.90)
Seat 6: aniara66 ($59.15)
erdissimo posts the small blind of $0.50
Morkgohome posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GreekStein [
As]
aniara66 folds
pete royal has 8 seconds left to act
pete royal folds
phoenix21xx raises to $3.50
GreekStein has 15 seconds left to act
GreekStein raises to $12
erdissimo folds
Morkgohome folds
phoenix21xx raises to $37.50
GreekStein raises to $114
phoenix21xx calls $76.50
*** FLOP *** [
]
phoenix21xx checks
GreekStein bets $160.65, and is all in
phoenix21xx calls $160.65
GreekStein shows [
As]
phoenix21xx shows [
]
*** TURN *** [
] [
]
*** RIVER *** [
] [
]
GreekStein shows a pair of Aces
phoenix21xx shows three of a kind, Kings
phoenix21xx wins the pot ($547.80) with three of a kind, Kings
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $550.80 | Rake $3
Board: [
]
Seat 1: pete royal didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: phoenix21xx showed [
] and won ($547.80) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 3: GreekStein (button) showed [
As] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 4: erdissimo (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Morkgohome (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: aniara66 didn't bet (folded)
Pot size on the flop is 228 and you have 160 back. Assuming your options are jam or check when you jam and are called the pot will be:
228+160*2 = 547. I.e. Your jam risks 160 to win 547. The breakeven equity you need for the jam to be profitable if you are called 100% of the time is 160/547*100 = 29%
a) If we stove the top 4% of hands then you equity on this flop is:
b) Vs an extremely wide 4b range we do even worse due to the increase of middling rundowns :
c) Vs a very tight 4b range we do much better.
Given the fact that villain flatted our 4bet we can assume that our actual equity when called lies more between a) and b) than between c) and a). This is due to the fact that villain probably jams the very top of his 4bing range to a 5bet and flats the rest of it.
It's also important to note that our equity between 4%(23) and our equity between 10% (21) is not a smooth curve. For example at 7% we have 20% equity. I couldnt list the top 10% of omaha hands or the top 7% or whatever but I would guess this is due to the fact that 10% includes more smaller ds rundowns. Regardless I think it would be safe to go ahead and assume that our equity when called is somewhere in the low 20's. As we saw earlier our breakeven equity on a shove is 29% so if we're called 100% this would be a fairly trivial check/give up down the streets.
Unfortunately that is not the end of the hand because it now starts to get complicated when you take in to account the fact that he might fold to our shove. As you mentioned earlier if he 4b a hand like 4567ds or jj88 he would have to c/f KQTsss. Personally I tend to not 4b these hands as they play better the higher the psr. Also, given this is rush there isn't a whole lot of need for balance. In other words Villain doesn't really have to worry about being exploited by only 4betting AAxx and flatting anything else he wants to continue with. We can get a better idea of how much villain needs to fold to our shove to account for our equity disadvantage by running some numbers:
As we've stated earlier our equity when called is like somewhere in the low 20's, between 20 and 23. For calculations sake lets assume it is 21.5. When called our play warrants a $EV of:
21.5%*547 = $117 - our wager(160) = -$43.
To calculate the amount villain has to fold:
*** F(fold%) = F*227 + (1-F)*(43) >0
227F - 43 +43F > 0
270F > 43
F > 43/270
F > 0.16
To make our shove +ev we need villain to fold 16% or more of the time. Without knowing villains 4b/flat range we can't move any further toward solving the hand. However I would say that the type of villain this might possibly be a jam against would be one that we've seen 4b fold in similar spots before. This is due to the fact that a 4bet folding range would typically include a lot of high card rundowns and AXXX hands that do badly vs a 5b range that is exclusively AAXX. If they flat our 4b we can assume then that their range is skewed toward hands that play better against AAXX and ultimately worse on KQTsss.
To conclude, I think it would be overly optimistic to think that villain folds >16% of the time and would say that this is most likely a check give up, but without knowing his exact 4b/flat range can't say for sure.
***Ty Ash Mason for helping me with this.
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