Manchester United, that didn't last long. Seven up

[arbboy]

taking the top 4 prices directly its a 4/1 double.  The two are negatively correlated though just taking the top 4 prices (ie if Chelski don't top 4 manure are more likely and vice versa) so probably around a 5/1 shot.

[cambridgealex]

taking the top 4 prices directly its a 4/1 double.  The two are negatively correlated though just taking the top 4 prices (ie if Chelski don't top 4 manure are more likely and vice versa) so probably around a 5/1 shot.

Help out a betting noob, where did I go wrong?

I saw Chelsea were 7/2 to make top 4 (22%?) so 78% to not make it.

Utd were 1/7 to make top 4 (87.5%) to 12.5% to not make it.

So for both those outcomes multiply 0.78*0.125=0.0975 so around 9/1?

Add to that the negative correlation you mentioned and it's more like 10,11s?

[arbboy]

taking the top 4 prices directly its a 4/1 double.  The two are negatively correlated though just taking the top 4 prices (ie if Chelski don't top 4 manure are more likely and vice versa) so probably around a 5/1 shot.

Help out a betting noob, where did I go wrong?

I saw Chelsea were 7/2 to make top 4 (22%?) so 78% to not make it.

Utd were 1/7 to make top 4 (87.5%) to 12.5% to not make it.

So for both those outcomes multiply 0.78*0.125=0.0975 so around 9/1?

Add to that the negative correlation you mentioned and it's more like 10,11s?

The 1/7 you got from oddschecker isn't an accurate guide.  Manure are closer to 1/3 (75%) to top 4 on betfair.  A much more accurate guide to the actual chance of it happening.  Your maths was fine just the relative prices were different which we used.

You passed the odds compiling test with ease.  Future loltrader i reckon if the poker career stalls.  

Price different now Chelski gone 1-0 down to bournemouth!  They really are shocking this season.

[POWWWWWWWW]

21 shots on goal, only 1 on target, don't even know how that's possible.

[Tal]

taking the top 4 prices directly its a 4/1 double.  The two are negatively correlated though just taking the top 4 prices (ie if Chelski don't top 4 manure are more likely and vice versa) so probably around a 5/1 shot.

Help out a betting noob, where did I go wrong?

The bookies will know the sort of person that is betting on that market is likely to be betting on United making the top four, so they'll squeeze the price in a touch and know they'll still be getting action.

Betfair exchange gives you a more distilled version of the chances of it happening, provided there's been a fair bit of money bet on both sides.

[david3103]

If u offered me the title LVG way I'd take it.

I would hate to win the title playing this way. Our well organised defence saved by the post twice. Loathe the way that LVG consistently blames the players in post-match interviews.

Last game on MotD again sums it up really.

If we go to Wolfsburg playing this way we're heading for the Europa.

[George2Loose]

long term>>>>>>>>>>>short term. Embrace the variance

[cambridgealex]

long term>>>>>>>>>>>short term. Embrace the variance

Are you getting unlucky?

[arbboy]

enjoy the variance.  Not embrace it.  You are running miles ahead of the game at the minute.

[cambridgealex]

enjoy the variance.  Not embrace it.  You are running miles ahead of the game at the minute.

Exactly.

[BorntoBubble]

We are getting incredibly lucky at the minute, really dire, worse than under moyes.

[david3103]

long term>>>>>>>>>>>short term. Embrace the variance

taking the long view is fine if you know what the future holds. I'm struggling to see how parking the bus and then running back and forth up and down the alley is any sort of progress toward an agreeable destination.

What do you see as the long term outcome?

[Archer]

United's last 6 home games:

0-0 0-0 1-0 2-0 0-0 0-0

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[Archer]

As a City fan, (I'll choose my words carefully here)  it would be somewhat of an understatement to say I don't like Manchester United. I've been surrounded by their supporters all my life and it is only natural I like it when the wheels fall off. I'lll always watch them when they are on TV if it doesn't clash with anything City and watching United lose is a great source of enjoyment. However, I love football more than I dislike United and at at times over the years there is  no choice but to respect the football when it is good and generally it has been good.

Right now I can't stand watching United. The way they are playing is not right. It tilts me. I wish they would return to their historic values and I can enjoy watching them lose whilst playing entertaining football rather than  this feast of anti-football. The sooner LVG goes the better for me and for the Premier League in general.

On this subject, I thought the quotes below from from City's CEO, Ferran Soriano, were interesting in the context of upholding an attacking philsophy. They were made at City's low-point last season.


 "There is a core of values, a core of beliefs that all we have,” Soriano said. “We win and we lose, but we never leave these (values).

"We always play attacking football, we try to keep the ball, we play with a high defensive line and we apply pressure to recover the ball.

“These are very simple things that all our teams do and, hopefully, you see our teams in Melbourne and Manchester play and you will see the same kind of football.

“This doesn't mean we'll win. At the weekend, Manchester City had 73 per cent possession in a game we lost (against Crystal Palace).

 “But we never, ever renounce our values of the way we play football. We believe, because all organisations need some set of basic values that people believe in.

"That's very easy to say when things go well, but the challenge and the fascinating situation is, what happens when things go wrong?"

You need the commitment from your heart, the kind that can't be bought with a lot of money,” Soriano said. “I think football is a metaphor for life, life in ninety minutes, life in a short space.

"You need emotional balance and everyone in the team has to know what is expected of them. They must know what their role is, and accept it.

"And we learn more from things that go wrong than things that go well.”