200NL HU river sizing

[pleno1]

Pot is 70. Speaking to some friends who are all v.good, some prefer 70, some prefer 80-110, some prefer 52, some prefer 34. Pretty sick that they all gave diff answers.

Metagame: I have taken full control of the match that is 1.6k hands old. I've been barreling alot and overbet the river 3 times in the last 150 hands. Once was 2x pot, one was 1.1x pot and one was 1.5x pot. He has c/r all 2 pair/sets kinda hands previously so not scared about getting c/r.

[01:51:15] Patrick Leonard: Full Tilt Poker Game #28913872946: Table Cramp (heads up, deep) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:49:31 ET - 2011/03/10
Seat 1: jackbauerz ($235.30)
Seat 2: pads1161 ($1,165.55)
pads1161 posts the small blind of $1
jackbauerz posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
pads1161 raises to $6
jackbauerz calls $4
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jackbauerz checks
pads1161 bets $8
jackbauerz calls $8
*** TURN *** [ ] []
jackbauerz checks
pads1161 bets $22
jackbauerz calls $22
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
jackbauerz checks
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 bets ?

[SuuPRlim]

mmmmmmmmm

I can DEFo see a ton of merit to the overbet here cos of the highlighted metagame - perhaps you felt him getting a bit tilted by them or something IDK which might tip it towards being the best vacuum play

However I think i prefer a bet of around ~52 is best, overbeting might be a better play if there was more legitimate air in your 3barrel range, sure you have  ,  ,  ,  , maybe  a hand like  you elect to turn into a bluff but the board is pretty dry, id prefer a smaller bet 52ish trying to rep thin value rather and its an deasy call for or  when he needs to be good only 30%~ of the time. I feel like you just dont quite have enough air in your 3barrel range to get hero'd for a 1.5x pot bet

[pleno1]

Also something that might be interesting is that he has tried to attack every single sign of weakness, I have misclicked min raised the button 4 times and he has 3bet 100% of the time, he has 3bet a tonnnnnnnnnnnnnne and he has raised lots of small value bets, I guess we can add $18 into the options of bets to try and get him to turn 4x into a bluff. Like he kinda did with 86 in the other thread.