I'm trying to work out this problem:
A player has a 10% ROI in $15+1 tournament. He therefore earns $1.60 a game.
That game becomes a $10+0.85 tournament. How much does he earn per game? (assuming the player pool is of the same skill level)
It's not as simple as: he earns $1.09 per game because the rake ratio has increased.
If the rake ratio was the same as $15+1, the tournament would be $10+0.67 instead of $10+0.85
Does he therefore earn $1.09 - ($10.85-$10.67) = $0.91
My gut feel on first reading your post was that the drop off in earn you'd calculated 'felt' too big to me for the change in rake applied.
My take on it is this:
If we assume that he's making $1.60 a tournament (i.e 10% ROI) at present, then he's achieving a distribution of results to overcome the rake applied at that level.
If we call this distribution of results 'Z' then
10% = 0.1 = Z x 15/16
Therefore Z = 0.10667
Assuming that the distribution of finishes doesn't change at the new structure and that the payout %'s are unchanged for each position, we can use the above constant to calculate his new ROI for the revised structure, as follows:
New ROI = 0.10667 x 10/10.85
New ROI = 9.83% (i.e. the change in proportion of rake has dropped his ROI by 0.17%)
Applying this to a buy-in of $10.85, he therefore now expects to earn $10.85 * 9.83% = $1.066 per tournament.
So in effect, he loses $0.51 per game from the reduced buy-in, and a further $0.024 per game because of the change in rake.
Hope this makes sense - I await the first shots to be fired at my logic!