NFL Betting blog

[LeKnave]

should get our speculative Ridley reddies back at least, any1 see him take a snap?

[action man]

should get our speculative Ridley reddies back at least, any1 see him take a snap?

no, but hopefully i missed one

[redarmi]

Possibly the best article I have ever read about the NFL.. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/sports/football/kris-jenkinss-view-of-life-in-the-nfl-trenches.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2 nobody can tell me these guys are overpaid.

[ChipRich]

Possibly the best article I have ever read about the NFL.. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/sports/football/kris-jenkinss-view-of-life-in-the-nfl-trenches.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2 nobody can tell me these guys are overpaid.

ty, deece read.

[Marky147]

Yeah cheers for that very interesting

[redarmi]

Anyone had a look at the games tomorrow yet?  Initial views are Dolphins +7 and maybe Dez Bryant @ 7/1 first TD scorer.  The latter is close but can't see how DeMarco Murray can be favourite in that game given he has scored 2 out of 25 Cowboys TD's this year and the Dolphins have a very good rushing D.  Other games look tough.  Normally Detroit would be close to a automatic pick for me in this kind of spot.

[Simon Galloway]

I'm on panthers -3 and Bengals -7 and would probably do a bit more if it helps anyone on the other side.

[Horneris]

PADDY POWER

Thanksgiving NFL Free Bet Special!
Green Bay Packers At Detroit Lions
Thurs. 5.30pm - Sky Sports 3
Miami Dolphins At Dallas Cowboys
Thurs. 9.15pm - Sky Sports 3
San Francisco 49ers At Baltimore Ravens
Fri. 1.20am - Sky Sports 3
Free Bet Special
If the last score of in any of these games is a Field Goal Paddy Power will refund all losing Match Handicap Bets on that match as a free bet on the weekend's American Football.

[Horneris]

lol tho, my max bet is £3.55. ^^^

[redarmi]

Ha!  I thought I had a semi functioning Paddy Power account and my max was £28 on the 49ers game and £35 on the Dolphins game.  FFS I have a bankroll of about a 20000th the size of Paddy Power and even I will take a £100 on any NFL game at a generally available price!!!!!

[Royal Flush]

Cheers Brent will be getting stuck in on these

[Simon Galloway]

Any Stato's out there want to have a go at pricing the value of that offer?  i.e. is it better to get 19/20 somewhere else without the offer?

And sigh at being restricted to £3.55, Paddy seem quite happy to allow me whatever I want.... wonder why!

[redarmi]

It is worth more in a close game like the late game for sure.  It is about 35% chance that the first play of the game will be a field goal.  If we assume that this is reduced by about half then you would be getting your money back about 17.5% and it only impacts you half of the time so assuming no other edge on a $110 bet:

50% *£100 return = £50
41.75%*-£110 = -£45.92

So it makes every bet +£4.08 in EV roughly.  I think my workings are correct there.  Given the average bet is -£4.55 then it is worth about 10c I think so in answer to your question yes it is better than taking -105!!!  I hope!!!

[WarBwastard]

Really good write up for Baltimore game.  Very long but well worth a read if you have time.  From a great NFL blog http://fantasy-sports-nation.blogspot.com/


OK, here we go... Hargaugh vs. Harbaugh... I probably don't have to write too many words here because the match-up ought to be clear... In many ways these teams are so similar... Great defenses, efficient offenses (except on odd occasions when Cam Cameron forgets to give Ray Rice the football)...

I really don't think the public has seen the TRUE Ravens yet... They've lost 3 games this year to crappy squads (Tennessee, Jax, & Seattle)... Two of those losses came the week after they played the Steelers... Most of the reasons for those losses were sleepwalking on offense & costly turnovers (3 vs. Seattle in the RED ZONE, 2 on kickoff returns)... I don't care who you're playing, you just can't hand the other team 17 free points & expect to win in the NFL... Basically the same things happened vs. Tennessee & Jacksonville...

San Francisco is undefeated (save for the overtime loss vs. the Cowboys)... Since that's in the back of many people's minds (& with only one loss), the 49ers are being discussed along side the Packers as the best two teams in the NFL right now... What makes me grin is that the same 'experts' can't even see fit to put the Ravens in the top "3" of just the AFC!!!... Most recent I saw was Nick Mangini (ESPN) ranking the Ravens behind the Patriots & Steelers (even though the Ravens beat the Steelers twice already this year, as well as beat the Houston Texans by 15, and annihilated the Jets (whom many consider somewhat neck & neck with the Patriots)...

Whatever...

I understand the 'emotion' of siding with the Steelers or Patriots (but the 'logic' still escapes me)...

Actually, the most dangerous thing for the Ravens would be to put the whammy on San Francisco here on Thanksgiving Night... At that point, it's likely that the Ravens could follow up that victory with losses to the Browns & Colts...

Impressive as the 49ers have been this year... I just don't think that they ought to be compared with (let alone 'elevated above' the status of the Ravens) until they've proven more... A LOT MORE...

A lot of folks have come & gone into M&T Bank Stadium with their shiny little records only to go home with a few more players on the PUP list, another "L" on their resume, and their tails between their legs...

Think it's so easy?...

Nobody... NOBODY... In the Joe Flacco era... west of the Indianapolis Colts (& that was a 'Peyton Manning' led Indianapolis Colts that - um - went on to play [& were 'favored' over] the New Orleans Saints in the Superbowl... THOSE Colts barely managed to beat the Ravens (17-15)...

The only OTHER teams to beat Baltimore at M&T were the Steelers, TWICE, (both times by a field goal - once, in OT, & both times where Baltimore held 4th quarter leads & BOTH times when the Steelers went on to play in the Superbowl that same year)... Also, the division rival Bengals beat them once (17-14) on a TD pass from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds to play...

That's it... That's the BEST 3 Superbowl bound teams were able to manage in Baltimore (an 'overtime' win, a FG win, & a 2 point win)...

Most will forget also (BEFORE the Joe Flacco era - when Baltimore had to exist with Kyle FUCKING Boller as QB), that the undefeated New England Patriots (yeah, THOSE 18-1 New England Patriots), barely escaped with their lives in Baltimore late in the season on a winning drive that had the benefit of shady penalty after shady penalty...

Oh, but I'm sure ALL of that past history is just a fluke... I'm SURE the 49ers, who haven't managed a season better than 8-8 in a DECADE, are going to waltz into Baltimore & show the Ravens who is boss... I'll have to look, but it seems to me that the Ravens have more ROAD PLAYOFF WINS during that same span...

Alright look... I don't want to say that the 49ers are bad... They've had a nice season & they're coached well... I'm going to have to go with older brother JOHN here though... It may not be apparent to the fucking HACK TV sportscasters out there, but this is a huge jump in class for the 49ers...

It's one thing to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, & Cardinals (in your division) twice a year, then have the Cleveland Browns & Tampa Bay Bucs come to town & beat up on them... But it's a whole damn other thing to travel all the way East & play in a prime time game against a team that the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (who as I mentioned before are the team that all these 'expert' sportscasters have as being BETTER than the Ravens)... The STEELERS THEMSELVES know that they have to bring their A+1 game into Baltimore if they hope to win (Didn't work in week 1 when they were smoked 35-7)... Then #2 are the Patriots (according to the same 'experts')... Umm - the Patriots got smoked by the Steelers...

Anyway, if the Steelers are usually 3 point DOGS to the Ravens at M&T... You mean to tell me that the 49ers ought to be 3 point dogs too???... The Steelers have played in 3 Super Bowls (& won 2) since the 49ers even sniffed the playoffs...

Come on Man!

[redarmi]

Corals got a market on their website which QB will have most passing yards.  They have Rodgers @ 5/2.....think he should be 7/4 max and a mate with a slightly better grasp of these things than me was even shorter.  Can't get on but great value!!!