Facing river overbet

[skolsuper]

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (On Game)
$600.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, September 15, 10:57:49 ET 2011
Table San Angelo (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 2: Hero ( $823.00 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 1.9, Hands: 22779
Seat 3: Player3 ( $749.35 USD )
Seat 5: Player5 ( $213.00 USD )
Seat 8: babadaniel ( $1754.55 USD ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 22, 3B: 11, AF: 2.3, Hands: 3107
Seat 9: Player9 ( $628.05 USD )
Player5 posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
Player8 posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [   ]
Player9 folds
Hero raises [$18.00 USD]
Player3 folds
Player5 folds
Player8 calls [$12.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
Player8 checks
Hero bets [$21.00 USD]
Player8 raises [$55.00 USD]
Hero calls [$34.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
Player8 bets [$111.00 USD]
Hero calls [$111.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
Player8 bets [$1570.55 USD]
Hero

Was just discussing with someone yesterday how nobody ever tries to rep the 2 on boards like this and they might be good to bluff, then today this comes up. Not much dynamic with villain that I can remember, he probably sees me as a standard reg.

edit: shove is $639 effective into a $371 pot

[Whollyflush]

well, hes repping quad 3's and A2s and he probably has it.

[Rupert]

I'm assuming he's raising a pretty polarised range on the flop obviously 22,33 sometimes QQ,KK,AA and sometimes A2s 32s etc.  Bluffs can be lots of things, most likely are back door flush draws and some front door straight draws.  If all those combos of bluffs are present on the flop and for the most part he only continues when he improves his equity (obviously he can bluff better turn cards too and his raise cbet might be profitable in itself) then on this exact turn card we can expect he is bluffing like 50% less than on the flop.  That combined with overbet jamming the river just makes it ridiculously improbable that he is bluffing esp if he occasionally flats QQ+ preflop and with no notable dynamic.

I think it's a pretty easy fold really, and I expect you made it, but it's also a pretty sick line if he just did it as a random one off type bluff.  It's not like our preflop range is ridiculously tight and faceup here, we have more 2x than him.

[DMorgan]

Definitely folding. If we had some history of him being ridic spazzy and potentially doing this with 88/99 for value then I think its closer but I think in the absence of any sick history he just has it

[EvilPie]

In the absence of other info I call.

But I never believe anyone ever so my opinion might not be that useful.

Actually you've got over 3k hands on him. Haven't you got any more info for us?

[Patonius2000]

With an aggression factor of only 2.3 I think this is a fairly trivial fold

[TheFallen]

yer, i think its a fold unless hes ridic spewy or ridic good. w$wsf prob usefull

even though your hand is sort or face up there arnt many people sick enough to pull trigger over 3 streets here imo.

[SuuPRlim]

well, hes repping quad 3's and A2s and he probably has it.

yh, sigh

[pleno1]

ask him in chat if he will show if u fold.

[cambridgealex]

ask him in chat if he will show if u fold.

[Whollyflush]

yer, i think its a fold unless hes ridic spewy or ridic good. w$wsf prob usefull

even though your hand is sort or face up there arnt many people sick enough to pull trigger over 3 streets here imo.

Yeh wwsf/wtsd/w$sd when used together are by far more reliable stats to use than AF.

[Mondeoman]

Interesting. It's prob not a bluff but wouldn't it would be great if it was - you're pretty much never calling here. I did this exact play ( potted river didn't over bet) earlier on 226 board with 45, turn was q river was 8, got tank called by q6, fekking donk.

[SuuPRlim]

Interesting. It's prob not a bluff but wouldn't it would be great if it was - you're pretty much never calling here. I did this exact play ( potted river didn't over bet) earlier on 226 board with 45, turn was q river was 8, got tank called by q6, fekking donk.

should move  up to where people respect your raises.

[DMorgan]

Interesting. It's prob not a bluff but wouldn't it would be great if it was - you're pretty much never calling here. I did this exact play ( potted river didn't over bet) earlier on 226 board with 45, turn was q river was 8, got tank called by q6, fekking donk.

should move  up to where people respect your raises.

Should've overbet ldo

[AlexMartin]

puke.