Diary of a professional punter

[redarmi]

You are all leading me astray.....now you have me thinking about paying for my weekend away with a cheeky rfc.  The only time I have ever really done fc or tc are in the old days when the draw bias wasn't in them and I had a couple of decent results but nothing spectacular.  I think there is definitely mileage in them but not sure this is the race for it.

[typhoon13]

Fek it, on the RFC now lol

[redarmi]

£50 Dean Byrne @ just under 8/13 overall

Byrne is a late replacement for Frankie Gavin in this fight after Funtime Frankie went AWOL from his training camp.  The bookies priced that fight 1/33 Gavin 16/1 Horta.  Coming up with prices for fights involving tough journeymen like Horta isn't easy but Byrne is unbeaten in 15 fights and looks a decent prospect.  The big unknown is that Byrne fought an eight rounder last week on the undercard of the Norton fight and was taken all the way.  I am pretty confident he wouldn't be taking this fight if he didn't think he could win and even allowing for the fight last week i thought he would have been about 1/6.  He used to be trained by Freddie Roach and is considered a good tough sparring partner for the likes of Michael Katsidis and Kevin Mitchell so he is clearly rated.  I don't see how he can possibly be 8/13 against the third best fighter at this weight in France.  I wouldn't be much bigger than 2/1 against Gavin.  Couple of decent judges I spoke to this morning were largely in agreement althought they were not as short as me but all told i have to have a maximum.

Ugh, that was ugly.  Wasn't able to watch fight but heard it wasn't great.  Not often I do in the max bets so a bit gutted.

[redarmi]

There is really nothing I hate more than doing my money in style on an odds on shot that I think is close to a certainty.  It makes me feel so stupid and even though in the long run boxing has been a good sport for me and one in which I think the odds compilers in general are not that good but it can be very difficult to price and one where knowledge of training camps and a fighters condition can be a massive advantage.  This is why we have bankroll management and for the first time since I started the diary I was tempted to have more than 5% on.  Still not totally sure whether I priced this right or not given the knowledge/info I had but I probably underestimated what last week may have taken out of him. 

Heading to Southampton tomorrow to watch my beloved Boro and it is a massive game for us so beyond what I have already done I probably won't do too much.  I do have a guy that puts a lot of my money on whose opinion and info i rate very highly so we may do a couple of horses but beyind that, and after tonight, I will probably have a fairly slow day and almost certainly won't post unless I have a particularly strong view.  Me and the lads I go to the match with have a longstanding tradition that when the Boro win we buy a round of drinks that are red in colour so if you see a big fella in the Hampshire then later London area drinking red aftershocks or something similarly ridiculous whilst singing "oh Nickey Bailey you are the love of my life, oh Nickey Bailey I'd let you shag my wife, oh Nickey Bailey I want ginger hair too" then that'll be me.

[Horneris]

Watford 

Get outtttttttt Chompy.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Sigh, I cursed this thread too as well as the NFL one.

Never giving an opinion again, or at least not until tomorrow

[Chompy]

Same old Posh. Might work it out in the week but I reckon we've gone behind in about three-quarters of games this season and conceded in the opening ten minutes of most of those. Can't keep doing that at this level.

[redarmi]

£30 Alonso to win Indian Grand prix @ 7/1 (8/1 is avail with the Nanny)

[Girgy85]

Thoughts on Melbourne cup?

De sousa on fox hunt got a chance?

[mondatoo]

£30 Alonso to win Indian Grand prix @ 7/1 (8/1 is avail with the Nanny)

Interested on your thoughts behind this, just priced wrong ?

[redarmi]

Yeah.  I fancied he would beat Webber who was ahead of him on the grid.  He had done it week in week out and Webbers starting has been awful and I thought given Vettel has thw title wrapped up he probably wouldn't be taking unneccesary risks.  It was made easier by the fact that most other firms were 9/2 and 5/1 so it looked a bit of a rick by a couple of the firms really.  In those cases I tend to just go with my initial gut feel.  If the price had been a general market price I would have done a bit more work on it to ensure it was value but normally the outlying prices are wrong if you think they are and can overthink it too much.

[mondatoo]

Yeah.  I fancied he would beat Webber who was ahead of him on the grid.  He had done it week in week out and Webbers starting has been awful and I thought given Vettel has thw title wrapped up he probably wouldn't be taking unneccesary risks.  It was made easier by the fact that most other firms were 9/2 and 5/1 so it looked a bit of a rick by a couple of the firms really.  In those cases I tend to just go with my initial gut feel.  If the price had been a general market price I would have done a bit more work on it to ensure it was value but normally the outlying prices are wrong if you think they are and can overthink it too much.

LOL, I thought it said Italian Grand Prix and was for the next race, wasn't meant as a rub, haha. ( I now realise the Italian GP has already happened as well).

I remember speaking to a guy at the felt about a year or so ago who was saying he makes a load betting on F1, I believe solely betting on Vettel/Vettel or Webber/Webber for Pole/Race winner depending on what some contact he had at Redbull told him, guessing he's had a good year with Vettel this year.

[redarmi]

Back in the saddle today.

410 Redcar two bets:

£10 e/w Lady de Sol @ 20/1
£15 e/w Edgeware Road @ 10/1

[Chompy]

Southampton @ 10-1 to put 5+ past the mighty Posh worth a close look.

[ACE2M]

Southampton @ 10-1 to put 5+ past the mighty Posh worth a close look.

can get 29/1 with 12bet