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scotty2hatty
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« on: October 08, 2011, 02:23:12 PM »

I know there are a few guys who follow MMA/UFC on blonde so I thought a dedicated thread could work.

UFC 136 tonight and it's going to be a cracker, can't wait til start time. A few years back when the British bookmakers started accepting MMA bets their prices were all over the place and anyone with a decent knowledge of the sport could pick off the value easily. Nowadays they are a little more clued up but you can still find the value and Ladbrokes are relatively new to the field and seemed to be best price about a lot of stuff.

The main event is the third fight between the lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and the undefeated Gray Maynard with Maynard having decisioned Edgar in 2008 with the other fight ending in a draw earlier this year. The second fight ranks up there as one of the top fights of recent times and hopefully this fight is as good. Picking a winner is tough and the experts' opinions are divided but IMO the champion Edgar grinds out a decision win by using his defensive wrestling to keep it standing and simply outworking Maynard on the feet. Edgar could go for 50 rounds never mind 5 and the drawn fight this year showed that as he got stronger as the fight went on after being in serious trouble early.

Neither man is a known finisher, Edgar doesn't have KO power and Maynard is known as a grinder who was overlooked previously for a title shot due to his unflattering style. Edgar has 8 of 13 career victories by way of decision and Maynard has 8 of 10, stats which kind of tell their own story. My feeling is, if it goes to points, which is extremely likely, then Edgar is the far more likely winner. Edgar is 11/8 with Ladbrokes to win by decision whilst it is odds on in most other places with one other touching evens. Betfair are better priced than Ladbrokes but that rules out multiples.

Another bet I like for this evening is in another rematch, that of Nam Phan and Leonard Garcia. Garcia won their first fight in controversial fashion with most thinking Phan had won the decision only for Garcia to have his hand raised. Due to that I think the market is way off this time and Phan has been made a clear favourite. Garcia took the last fight on 8 days notice and had to drop 30 pounds in that time to make weight, this time he's had longer and should be better prepared. For sure it is going to be a close fight again but Garcia isn't the 2/1 shot that Bet365 have him and I'll have to get involved.

Joey Beltran welcomes Stipe Miocic to the UFC who I must admit to have never having seen fight. Miocic has been a bunch of cans on his way to amassing his 6-0 record and the UFC is a whole different game. Whilst Miocic might be a world-beater I doubt it so I've dabbled in small stakes on Beltran at 9/4 who is an exciting fighter who likes to trade punches.

Elsewhere I like a bunch of the favourites: Pettis (4/11), Maia (4/11), Guillard (1/3), Sonnen (2/5) and Aldo (4/11).

UFC 136 bets

Frankie Edgar by decision @ 11/8 (Ladbrokes)
Leonard Garcia @ 2/1 (Bet365)
Joey Beltran @ 9/4 (Bet365)
Demian Maia by submission @ 11/4 (PP)

Anyone else got an opinion on tonight?
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Boba Fett
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2011, 02:49:46 PM »

Maynard, Florian, Sonnen, Garcia, Pettis for me.  

Guillard v Lauzon very interesting, I think Lauzon is the better fighter but doesnt match up well at all with Guillard, Guillard will probably gameplan better since he has Jackson in his corner and he is currently on the best form of his life while Lauzon has been really inconsistent.  I also cant see Lauzon winning a decision here at all, round 1 or 2 sub for him is his most likely win.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2011, 02:51:58 PM by Boba Fett » Logged

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GreekStein
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2011, 02:59:03 PM »

<3 Guillard
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2011, 03:55:24 PM »

i think i'm getting old. i've gone right off mma recently, it seems terribly violent.
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2011, 05:37:32 PM »

like the price on garcia as well, involved
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2011, 12:48:04 AM »

beltran fight is sick, ure getting a sweat going into the 3rd at least
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2011, 02:17:28 AM »

oh no melvin
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Boba Fett
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2011, 03:12:28 AM »

Chael Sonnen is insane!  lol  <3
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buzzharvey22
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2011, 03:14:51 AM »

haha silva will ruin him
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Marky147
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2011, 03:15:33 AM »

Yeah that was a strong display there. Have to love the WWE 'I'll leave forever if you beat me' Cheesy
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buzzharvey22
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2011, 04:38:28 AM »

Yeah that was a strong display there. Have to love the WWE 'I'll leave forever if you beat me' Cheesy

lol

silva looked worried [ ]

awesome main event
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Marky147
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2011, 05:43:46 AM »

Thoughts on Lesnar Overeem in Dec?
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2011, 05:50:41 AM »

Yeah that was a strong display there. Have to love the WWE 'I'll leave forever if you beat me' Cheesy

lol

silva looked worried [ ]

awesome main event

Yeah I was just pointing out that I thought it was funny, not that I thought Silva should be worried because of his statement Wink
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Boba Fett
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2011, 07:09:33 AM »

Yeah that was a strong display there. Have to love the WWE 'I'll leave forever if you beat me' Cheesy

lol

silva looked worried [ ]

awesome main event

He doesn't speak English so probs didn't have a clue what sonnen was saying. He should be worried IMO, sonnen smashed him last time until he landed that triangle
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2011, 08:19:51 AM »

I know there are a few guys who follow MMA/UFC on blonde so I thought a dedicated thread could work.

UFC 136 tonight and it's going to be a cracker, can't wait til start time. A few years back when the British bookmakers started accepting MMA bets their prices were all over the place and anyone with a decent knowledge of the sport could pick off the value easily. Nowadays they are a little more clued up but you can still find the value and Ladbrokes are relatively new to the field and seemed to be best price about a lot of stuff.

The main event is the third fight between the lightweight champ Frankie Edgar and the undefeated Gray Maynard with Maynard having decisioned Edgar in 2008 with the other fight ending in a draw earlier this year. The second fight ranks up there as one of the top fights of recent times and hopefully this fight is as good. Picking a winner is tough and the experts' opinions are divided but IMO the champion Edgar grinds out a decision win by using his defensive wrestling to keep it standing and simply outworking Maynard on the feet. Edgar could go for 50 rounds never mind 5 and the drawn fight this year showed that as he got stronger as the fight went on after being in serious trouble early.

Neither man is a known finisher, Edgar doesn't have KO power and Maynard is known as a grinder who was overlooked previously for a title shot due to his unflattering style. Edgar has 8 of 13 career victories by way of decision and Maynard has 8 of 10, stats which kind of tell their own story. My feeling is, if it goes to points, which is extremely likely, then Edgar is the far more likely winner. Edgar is 11/8 with Ladbrokes to win by decision whilst it is odds on in most other places with one other touching evens. Betfair are better priced than Ladbrokes but that rules out multiples.

Another bet I like for this evening is in another rematch, that of Nam Phan and Leonard Garcia. Garcia won their first fight in controversial fashion with most thinking Phan had won the decision only for Garcia to have his hand raised. Due to that I think the market is way off this time and Phan has been made a clear favourite. Garcia took the last fight on 8 days notice and had to drop 30 pounds in that time to make weight, this time he's had longer and should be better prepared. For sure it is going to be a close fight again but Garcia isn't the 2/1 shot that Bet365 have him and I'll have to get involved.

Joey Beltran welcomes Stipe Miocic to the UFC who I must admit to have never having seen fight. Miocic has been a bunch of cans on his way to amassing his 6-0 record and the UFC is a whole different game. Whilst Miocic might be a world-beater I doubt it so I've dabbled in small stakes on Beltran at 9/4 who is an exciting fighter who likes to trade punches.

Elsewhere I like a bunch of the favourites: Pettis (4/11), Maia (4/11), Guillard (1/3), Sonnen (2/5) and Aldo (4/11).

UFC 136 bets

Frankie Edgar by decision @ 11/8 (Ladbrokes)
Leonard Garcia @ 2/1 (Bet365)
Joey Beltran @ 9/4 (Bet365)
Demian Maia by submission @ 11/4 (PP)

Anyone else got an opinion on tonight?


Good idea.
Now I'm back, maybe we could resurrect this old beauty;
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=20685.msg420129;topicseen#msg420129

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