4b shoving 100bbs in 6max NLHE - Theory

[cambridgealex]

A preflop spot I'm struggling with in 1/2 6max cash on ongame.

I open MP/HJ to $6 with 77-TT, AT,AJ. I'm playing 29/23, someone flats IP, then CO/BTN/SB/BB 3bets to $26.

Villian has high 3b % and high squeeze %. We're 100bbs deep.

Options.

1) Fold- hate cos our hand is so far ahead of villians range.
2) Peel - hate cos we're not very deep, player behind may peel too so we're not IP, will be hard to continue with the hand on lots of boards.
3) 4b click it back to $46, calling a shove. Don't like because either villain is gonna fold all bluffs and shove all hands that crush us. Or, he'll bluffshove hands with strong equity vs us like KQ-KT, QJ that we'd rather he just folded. No info on villains 5b tendancies.
4) Shove. Seems spewy and nonstandard but looking at the maths, I can't see the problem:

I looked into it after a hand where villian playing 35/26/14 over 200 hands. Not the greatest sample but it's ok. We have 77 and the above situation occurs. Back on us there's $40 in the pot and we're shoving 194 more. Assuming villain calls AQ+ and TT, when called we are 37% vs that range.

Putting this into a fold equity calculator, we need villian to fold 53% of the time. And if he's 3betting 14% and calling TT+, AQ+ (4.7%) so he's folding 67%. Therefore +EV.

Thoughts? Holes in my arguments?

[youthnkzR]

both options 1 & 4 are ok... but agree with your reasoning and therefore shove is fine.. especially vs this opponent based on what youve told us. (HATE options 2&3 tho lol)

[stato_1]

Hole: 200 hands 3bet stat is pretty much meaningless. If he's actually 3betting 14% then then ur argument is fine but he almost certainly isn't.

[stato_1]

Pretty sure there's another hole as well. Speak to u about that later

[TheFallen]

agree with stato about the 14%. I rarely see anyone with >10% over a decent sample.

Also for whatever reason, online 3bets IP tend to be with a lot stronger ranges than their 3b's from the blinds (prob coz peeling isn't as appealing with 100bb OOP with hands that could profitably peel on the button to a MP raise - coupled with players high blind stealing %ages). I'd guess that if someone has 14% 3bet that in this specific scenario it would be much lower.

I have seen lots of really good players use the 4b jam option to stop themselves form getting 5bet jammed on by bluffs. I'd think it's definitely a better line in a vacuum under certain conditions than using a standard 4b. The problem will be that its really hard to balance this as a long term strategy and these spots do come up a lot at 6max online.

[SuuPRlim]

good post ged.

one hole I see on top of Stato's point is that these spots are extremely game flow influenced imo, tons of external factors that are contributory, i.e who's at the table (is there one specific spot at the table) who the player has called behind is, if he's a fish I think he 3bet range is wider for value and has practically zero "airballs" whereas if it's a reg chances are it could be "light" a bit more, is he winning/losing etc

I think spots like these are generally <50% game flow specific and it's hard to discuss theoretically without a lot more info

(not saying the stats are in any way not relevant, they really are, but not the whole picture in these spots imo)

[pleno1]

this happened around 8 months ago alottttttttttttttttt at mid stakes games and everybopdy started 3bcalling j10s