Golf Betting 2012

[bobby1]

Tringale and esp Frazar started off well there guys, looks like the afternoon guys got a rough deal there with the frost delay in the morning, a few seemed to stumble a little late on when the light was going.

My dart was nearer to treble three than bullseye but at 5 behind its not awful.

Was annoying to see Villegas make a mess of his last 2 holes as the camber between him starting on the easy nine and finishing on the hard nine told late on. Same on the Trngale v Homles bet, where a 5 shot lead ended up two once one got onto the hard nine against the other playing the easy nine.

The Euro looks a right mess and has already been called off for the day, reduced to 54 holes and possibly greens that will have been uncut for 3 days and running at about 8-9 on the Stimp meter tomorrow unless the wind does ease up in the morning.

[outragous76]

A little off topic, but the girl presenting golf on SS has gone daring with the skirt length!

She's no George T but def appreciate the effort!

Vwp madam

[bobby1]

A little off topic, but the girl presenting golf on SS has gone daring with the skirt length!

She's no George T but def appreciate the effort!

Vwp madam

Is it the girl with the blonde hair that used to do the Setanta coverage mate?

[bobby1]

Great stuff there T Mar, I hope both Lawrie and Frazar can bring it home for you.

I had a decent night on that US golf. Laid Levin at an average of 2.54 and Simpson at 6.0 so although I have em red at the mo I have got them in under the market and have some nice greens in behind, including your man. Should Bo van Pelt, Stanley, Crane, Crouch, Bubba or Haas get into the thick of it then that would be an added bonus.

Was a pity for the match bet that Tringale put up +4 on the easiest stretch of holes to miss the cut by 1, esp as Holmes was only tied 57th. Oh well, swings and roundabouts


That Euro sorted itself out in the end and that early first day/late second day was a big advantage in the end. Will be interesting to see next week if any of the guys that played badly in the wrong side of the draw this week are pushed out too far.

I couldn't believe how short those early starters were in the market early today when I saw the wind was still blowing, so got a few of them in the book and topped up my red on Jason Day throughout the afternoon. it became apparent that the guys in front should go further ahead and some of the better players in behind should have a chance to catch up, so he , Lynn, Larrazabal and GF Castano are the bogeys, Day the big one tho but still got a decent few quid in to play with if they do get into contention.

Would be nice to get a clean day 2morrow tho without much to sweat about.

[T_Mar]

Cheers bobby, would settle for 1 obv!!!  Def been lucky with the draw in qata...

Interesting hearing about your various positions... are you doing all that whilst the round is in play,  or do you reasses at the end of each day? Think my head would explode trying to keep on top of it in running

[bobby1]

Cheers bobby, would settle for 1 obv!!!  Def been lucky with the draw in qata...

Interesting hearing about your various positions... are you doing all that whilst the round is in play,  or do you reasses at the end of each day? Think my head would explode trying to keep on top of it in running

It differs slightly each week really, this week I laid a few pre game in the US and then just played it in running when it came on TV. Sometimes I might play it in play from the start if it is a big comp. The good thing about the US event this week is there has been a clear bias between the front 9 and the back 9. So I have mainly set out to get players in that went thru the back nine in a  decent score and then hit the front nine, the opposite is I have backed a few that were going only ok on the front nine but had all those easy holes on the  13-18 stretch to play.

The majority of people having a bet on the guys that are being featured on TV, so I am looking to get them in as usually they are over bet, a good example from last night, Webb Simpson made par on 14 and was waiting to tee off on 15 as there was a bit of a backlog and play had slowed up there. His price on BF went from 6.4 to 5.6 as he stood on the tee simply because he is playing a par 5 next and got a drivable par 4 to come. was in the water off the tee on 15 so there is some trouble on the hole ( and it could be argued affected Simspsons price slightly) so I got him in there because he was already being bet as if he would make birdie, he hit it perfect off the tee but pulled his next shot into the water and made a 6, at 6.4 on the tee I would have left him but at 5.6 I was happy to get him in and see what happened.

I usually just lay players as I see it and let it run and see how it stands after 3 rounds and Simpson is deffo a big runner, but getting some stakes in the book gives you some ammo to play with later on if your reds are still around. I turned Levin from a winner into a loser as in the past he has struggled to win events, if he kicks on this week I will prob do my cash. As we saw last week there can be a lot of things happen in golf tourneys that you still get chance to get away from the bad results, I could take a little on both Simpson and Levin now to make em smaller losers but will see how it goes tonight, I might find a spot where I think they are value and bet them but wont bet them back yet just coz they are the worst results.

In the Euro I stayed away from the outright all week until I was 100% confident I knew what was happening and saw at about 2 am last night that the wind was still forecast to be strong early in the morning and light in the afternoon. I set my alarm for 5 to 6 and when I saw it was windy I laid the ones going back on the course then. Went back to bed and got up again for the second part of the coverage that was featuring the players in the better conditions. I ended up doing very little in that section of coverage other than lay the ones I had already got in as it became clear the players now on  the course should kick on.

The best example from there is when the leaders got thru the 12-15th and then had the driveable par 4 and the downwind par 5 left I could still lay Day at the same price he was when the leaders were going through the hard stretch of the back nine and players like Kaymer and Garcia who were lurking just behind him also had those holes left to play. He can deffo win but I have beaten the market by 5 1/2 points now on the lays before he went out and he ones after he had finished, so I am happy to see how he starts tomorrow but he is on the same score as Garcia and 1 ahead of Westy and Kaymer so there are others with good claims that are just as likely to make a surge tomorrow. So I got outs even tho he is my worse result of the weekend at the mo.

[T_Mar]

cheers for posting, really interesting stuff, respect

[T_Mar]

oh dear, frazar drops 2 shot in 3 holes finishing off r2... including 4ft miss on last

[bobby1]

That was a blow mate but 2nd with 36 left is a nice spot.

[Karabiner]

It seems to happen very often that guys who shoot fantastic scores in really windy conditions (ie gonzo, and Willett) have completely shot their bolt and have nothing left the next day.

Not always the case though as exemplified by Oosthuizen in The Open at St. Andrew's.

[bobby1]

Well that was pretty brutal, I kept laying Levin and he kept on doing enough to stay clear. The best thing I did all night was betting some back at 1.58 which isn't saying much.

I do at least have some good results outside him and Simpson so will just have to see what I can make of it 2morrow in a prevent defence kind of way.

Hopefully the Euro will be good to take some of the sting out of it.

Good luck with the Lawrie bet T Mar

[redarmi]

One of the most interesting posts I have read on Blonde that bobby.  Do you do  most of your work on how you expect the course to play in advance of the tournament?  I have often thought that a good understanding of a course is probably the key to in running betting on golf but outside of the majors I have never really looked at it in any detail.  When you tlk about players being on TV being overbet is that in the sense that the inn running punters on Betfair are more likely to be backing the players being followed by the cameras ie. a player near the top of the leaderboard but not being shown on TV would be overpriced just by virtue of the fact the punters aren't thinking about them as such?  For years on SPOTY I would simply lay whomever was on screen at that time ie. when they did the motorracing section I would give the puunters time to come on and back Hamilton then I would lay him at, say, 1.57 whene he had been 1.72 all week.  I found I could easily lay a 120-130% book just doing that.  Never thought about it with live sport before but suppose golf is ideal for that.

[bobby1]

One of the most interesting posts I have read on Blonde that bobby.  Do you do  most of your work on how you expect the course to play in advance of the tournament?  I have often thought that a good understanding of a course is probably the key to in running betting on golf but outside of the majors I have never really looked at it in any detail.  When you tlk about players being on TV being overbet is that in the sense that the inn running punters on Betfair are more likely to be backing the players being followed by the cameras ie. a player near the top of the leaderboard but not being shown on TV would be overpriced just by virtue of the fact the punters aren't thinking about them as such?  For years on SPOTY I would simply lay whomever was on screen at that time ie. when they did the motorracing section I would give the puunters time to come on and back Hamilton then I would lay him at, say, 1.57 whene he had been 1.72 all week.  I found I could easily lay a 120-130% book just doing that.  Never thought about it with live sport before but suppose golf is ideal for that.

Hi mate, tx

Ideally If I was playing pre tournament in volume It would be because I knew that say one side of the draw was certain to be favoured by the conditions. Once I know the set up and the weather I would try to narrow down a list of 'withs' and 'against' then check the market to see if I thought they were lays or bets, 80% of the time I am just looking to lay, as with over 120 odd runners almost every week you get plenty of runners on your side that you don't actually have to fancy pre event.

Although good course form now has to be treated with caution a little as the info is easier to get together these days and the players prices are now reaching the stage where they are too short. Scott Piercy went off the same price this week as players he would be 3 times the price of some weeks because he has led this event at some stage in the last two years and is in good form. Kevin Na was similar.


In running you hit the nail on the head really, the card of the course is your biggest friend as players will make chances/struggle on the same holes in the same conditions. Just a quick example is the 17th in the US event this week, its a driveable par 4 that has been really soft in the first two rounds, today with the pin on a downslope at the back of the green they have been having a  hard time getting the ball to within 15 feet in two. In the first two rounds it would have been a soft par/birdie hole for everyone and has been one of the easiest holes. Today it was a par and get to the next tee kind of hole. If you can keep up with the hole averages then you know before someone is coming to a hard stretch that it might be good to get them in the book.

My best month last year was in August as there were two events that featured courses with very stiff finishes to them, the Canadian Open and the USPGA championship. I knew in advance where the tough stretch started and then set out to get players in when they hit that stretch. The PGA was perfect as it featured a set of holes that were scoreable and then a set that were really tough, you could get on and off again as you saw it because the liquidity/turnover in the majors is so much better and most people want to bet after players make birdies without fully knowing what lies ahead on the next holes.

Usually the TV coverage will cover 2-3 main high profile player groups and then show shots from other players that are important, what I find happens is when one of the main groups hits it close or makes a birdie the price will contract just a little too much. Even just running a book with a lot of players quoted you will still in general lay the ones being covered fully by the pictures. I guess it is understandable that most people watching on TV want to bet the ones they can watch the most.

As you said, in the first few rounds you will find players bang in contention not appearing at all in the TV coverage other then seeing their scores update on the scoreboards they show, their prices contract less because they don't tend to get shorter when they have a birdie chance because you don't know they have it and if the TV do show the shot it is usually up on the online scoreboards first.

Anders Hansen won the PGA at Wentworth one year and didn't have one shot shown on TV until the 71st hole as he had posted a score early on the third day after just making the cut so was in the clubhouse when the show started, then didn't feature at all in the BBC's coverage on the final day as his 3 ball was a pretty uninspiring one. All of a sudden Ross Fisher and the other guy that had a good lead fell apart and he just plodded along and birdied the last two and went on to win it in a play off.


It is exactly like your SPOTY approach really , try to build your % by laying the players at the right time in a round or getting with them at the right time and trade higher volumes of players and just run the money through the book. This week has a really elongated leaderboard in the US so very few players to get in today and trade around the possie I had, which happens now and again too. I either need to level up the red figures and accept the loss which I will probably just do or look to maybe get on and then off thoughout the 4th round to just nip the figures up a bit and if it does close up a little I can play it by ear.

cheers

 

[bobby1]

It seems to happen very often that guys who shoot fantastic scores in really windy conditions (ie gonzo, and Willett) have completely shot their bolt and have nothing left the next day.

Not always the case though as exemplified by Oosthuizen in The Open at St. Andrew's.

It is deffo a factor Ralph, will be interesting to see what next week brings too as normally avoiding players that had their swings knocked around the week before is a good idea.

Tho I did realise one thing today, Jason Day hits a real high ball when playing in the States but that is probably because that's the best/only kind of shot on most US courses. In the first couple of days here I have seen him hit all kinds of knockdown shots and under the wind wristy ones which as an Aussie he will have done for most of his early career. So I had him in my mind as someone that might struggle in the wind given he way I see him play most of the time now and forgot that he would have been playing in wind for most of his life.

[Horneris]

Good to see The Lizard on -7 and The Couch on -3. Barring a disaster my lumpy 72 hole match bet with LeKnave is looking good.

Shame Levin is so far ahead or The Lizard would still be in with a small chance for the tournament.