Tips for Tikay

[Kmac84]

He has Pat Dobbs on his back who, I think rides Sandown as well as anyone,

Cheers Adz, wee bit aftertimey but it was this that i remembered reading earlier that made me have a wee bit e/w on Eye of The Storm there. 

If it helped recoup some losses i helped to incur, then its all good mate.

Nah, I normally do ok following you, it has stopped the haemoraging I was doing on Betting Emporiums Tennis tips though, despite them having a winning day today. 

The Betting Emporium Thread is here....


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=60211.780

Uhu, but that descends into farce, so as everything else betting wise generally goes here why not the above?

[BigAdz]

Do you give Jelana Jankovic any chance at all?

She was a former No.1, and whilst I rarely take an interest in Ladies Tennis, I notice she has been performing a little better at times this year.

At nearly 500s on betty, she caught my eye. That said, i she she was no great shakes last week.

600 right now, couldn't resist a couple of quid and got a bit spare since Ascot #teamAdz

I hope that was because she caught your eye too Doobs, because despite chucking a few quid on her myself, I really was just asking the question.  

I have no idea really, but the 600 has been smashed from the boards.  We need Tighty to do a route to round 2 the final.

edit,

Versnina who is only 95 in the World 1st round.
Robson round 2, but she has been injured so all good.
Kvitova round 3 is where it gets tricky, but we can lay off at 300 maybe?

Top tipping.

Jelena Jankovic has just beaten Petra Kvitova.

As one door closes!

We certainly have options now.

[Doobs]

Do you give Jelana Jankovic any chance at all?

She was a former No.1, and whilst I rarely take an interest in Ladies Tennis, I notice she has been performing a little better at times this year.

At nearly 500s on betty, she caught my eye. That said, i she she was no great shakes last week.

600 right now, couldn't resist a couple of quid and got a bit spare since Ascot #teamAdz

I hope that was because she caught your eye too Doobs, because despite chucking a few quid on her myself, I really was just asking the question.  

I have no idea really, but the 600 has been smashed from the boards.  We need Tighty to do a route to round 2 the final.

edit,

Versnina who is only 95 in the World 1st round.
Robson round 2, but she has been injured so all good.
Kvitova round 3 is where it gets tricky, but we can lay off at 300 maybe?

Top tipping.

Jelena Jankovic has just beaten Petra Kvitova.

As one door closes!

We certainly have options now.

Great tipping Adz, always had faith we could make round 2 the final

When do we do the full Chompy though? 

[Karabiner]

Anyone on Seppi @250?

Quality bokking from Castle maybe..

[craigbetts]

Andrew Castle can get in the sea!

[tikay]

Love the subliminal battle exchanges between Tighty and Peter.


If it were a poker hand, it would seem when Tighty calls, Peter always has the goods!

its not a battle

Peter is good enough not to have to resort to arbitrary percentages seemingly plucked out of thin air, thats all.

i challenge plenty of bets and prod and prompt on loads of others

if he really is a 55% shot in the sub-group from 11th on the grid with kvyat 7th and sainz 8th we should be doubling up at 4-1, yes?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-d

hopefully the bet wins, as its a big one

Plus, I like being challenged. It means I get to talk about Formula One - which if you hadn't noticed - I quite enjoy 

I would be a bit wary of recommending any increase to the bet as I wouldn't want to be responsible for that much of a loss.

Although, I did suggest £100, and you only managed to get £75 on .. so maybe! I'll leave it up to your discretion

My pre-race bets will come tomorrow morning while the GP3/GP2 races are on. 10:30 at the latest

Hi Peter,

We have a F1 thread which could use a bit of revving up, feel free to contribute please for any non-betting F1 chit chat.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=64905.new#new

[Peter-27]

Love the subliminal battle exchanges between Tighty and Peter.


If it were a poker hand, it would seem when Tighty calls, Peter always has the goods!

its not a battle

Peter is good enough not to have to resort to arbitrary percentages seemingly plucked out of thin air, thats all.

i challenge plenty of bets and prod and prompt on loads of others

if he really is a 55% shot in the sub-group from 11th on the grid with kvyat 7th and sainz 8th we should be doubling up at 4-1, yes?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-d

hopefully the bet wins, as its a big one

Plus, I like being challenged. It means I get to talk about Formula One - which if you hadn't noticed - I quite enjoy 

I would be a bit wary of recommending any increase to the bet as I wouldn't want to be responsible for that much of a loss.

Although, I did suggest £100, and you only managed to get £75 on .. so maybe! I'll leave it up to your discretion

My pre-race bets will come tomorrow morning while the GP3/GP2 races are on. 10:30 at the latest

Hi Peter,

We have a F1 thread which could use a bit of revving up, feel free to contribute please for any non-betting F1 chit chat.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=64905.new#new

Seen it before, the reason I don't post there is just a lack of time 

[TightEnd]

A loss of £108 yesterday, making a loss so far this month of £78

-£30 Gabriels Kaka unplaced at Sandown
-£20 Tatcherite at Beverley
-£20 Lisicki knocked out of Wimbledon by Bacsinszky
-£10 Tsonga knocked out of Wmbledon by Karlovic
-£15 Verstappen did not reach Q3
-£13 Maldonado did not reach Q3

Todays bets

£75 Perez (qualified 11th) to beat a group containing Kvyat (7th) Sainz (8th) and Verstappen (13th)
£30 Hulkenberg (9th) to win a group containing Ricciardo (10th), Grosjean (12th) and Maldonado (14th)
£10 Rosberg to win



Middlesex at Trent Bridge in the county championship
Warwickshire have a big one at home to Yorkshire

stage 2 of the tour de france, in the netherlands from Utrecht – Zeeland, a coastal stage which could be fun with the wind whipping off the sea

[Peter-27]

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%

[swinebag22]

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%

Are you sure about this figure? - If you are, then Jenson is way overpriced at 150/1 and surely worth a big punt

I would actually agree with the bookies and would rate Jenson <1%. It is probably <1% the other 3 retire and Jenson finishes

[TightEnd]

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

[TightEnd]

The last 16 draw as follows (seeding in brackets)

S Williams (1) v V Williams (16)
Azarenka (23) v Bencic (30)
Sharapova (4) v Diyas
Safarova (6) v Vandeweghe

Wozniacki (5) v Muguruza (20)
Bacsinszky (15)  v Niculescu
Keys (21) v Govortsova
Radwanska (13) v Jancowicz (28)

Lucie Safarova is the only 2014 Wimbledon quarterfinalist to reach 4R this year.

If Wozniacki beats Muguruza, she will be up to #3 in the world. Would be her highest ranking since February 2012...

looking at the bottom half, it has completely cut up

kvitova, halep, lisicki all gone

favourite to win it is radwanska followed by wozniacki, bacsinszky and keys

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/winner

each way is 1/2 1,2

radwanska 13-1
wozniacki 16-1
bacsinszky 20-1
keys 20-1

so we are getting a minimum of 13/2 one of these to win their half before serena or sharapova or whoever await in the final

my understanding is that radwanska has been poor all year, wozniacki has injury issues

who is the value to win this half now?

[Chompy]

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%

13/10, or 2.3, not 23/10.

[TightEnd]

Okay, one more bet to suggest:

Points finish - Romain Grosjean @ 23/10 with the exchange. While it is perfectly reasonable that this may not happen, 23/10 is value. I would expect around EVS (which is pretty much what most bookies have). Suggest £10.

Hmmm, there is value in this group somewhere:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/british-grand-prix/group-b

... but I'm not sure where! It's just too close to call between Williams and Ferrari. I would say;

Bottas 33%
Raikkonen 32%
Massa 30%
Button 5%

13/10, or 2.3, not 23/10.

assuming no bet at 2.3, rather than 3.3

[sonour]

i don't think using arbitrary percentages helps the argument Peter

analysis is good enough not to have to cloud it with sticking a finger in the air.....

Morning Tighty,

It's not often that I disagree with you but I find the percentages really useful. When we are trying to find a bet we are constantly comparing the chance of it happening with the odds available. These percentages are the chance of it happening. If Peter uses terms like, not very likely, quite likely, very likely, how do we quantify that ?
The percentages are exactly what we require.
Perhaps it's the case that whilst Peters analysis is brilliant his percentages are somewhat inaccurate. For instance is Perez really a 55% chance in the group where he was available at 4/1 ?
And if Peter really thinks Button is a 5% chance in his group then 150/1 would be a very good bet but Peter didn't seem particularly excited about it probably because it isn't a 5% chance.

Personally I'd like Peter to continue with his percentages as it will start a discussion to hopefully get them more accurate between us.

Come on Force India.