Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

To clarify sell red bull points if we think they are not going to finish 100 points ahead of force.  Will check back in an hour to see if anything needs doing.

current standings https://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/championship/results/2015-constructor-standings.html

the suggested market http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1/mm4.uk.meeting.5045975/formula-1-2015-constructors-championship-index

makes up 50-30-20-10

someone can tell me the best way to play it please

in essence we're getting 9/1 force india to finish 4th (make up is 10 or 0, buy at 1)

or we can sell red bull at 13, realistic downside is 7 points at worst, most likely result is 4th for 3 points profit

i am assuming that 13-16 allows for redbull suiting singapore etc, the slower less power hungry tracks etc

[Peter-27]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

I considered that, but selling Red Bull is much riskier than buying Force India @ 1.

[DropTheHammer]

I suppose of those that remain, we could do the occasional acca or yankee just to add some ice cream balance, or have a spin on the magic wheel once a week.

Most people vastly underestimate the usefulness of having the odd mug gamble to maintain bookie accounts...

[DungBeetle]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

I considered that, but selling Red Bull is much riskier than buying Force India @ 1.

It's a different profile I agree.  You win big if force India reel them in.  You win a bit if they finish behind Williams/Ferrari.  Lose 7 points for 3rd.  I was actually referring to selling their constructor points though.  If you think there is a decent chance they come 5th then it's way too high.

[Marky147]

I suppose of those that remain, we could do the occasional acca or yankee just to add some ice cream balance, or have a spin on the magic wheel once a week.

Most people vastly underestimate the usefulness of having the odd mug gamble to maintain bookie accounts...

My fault... I've been busy, and not able to make many recommends lately

[Tal]

I suppose of those that remain, we could do the occasional acca or yankee just to add some ice cream balance, or have a spin on the magic wheel once a week.

Most people vastly underestimate the usefulness of having the odd mug gamble to maintain bookie accounts...

My fault... I've been busy, and not able to make many recommends lately

Yes, Marky and I have the odd mug gamble stuff locked up.

I do the odd ones.  

[DropTheHammer]

And what happened to Hector's Tennis bets?   

[Peter-27]

If we think force India run red bull close shouldn't we be selling red bull?  I can put on the force index trade if that is the way you want to go Tighty.  I have no opinion either way.

I considered that, but selling Red Bull is much riskier than buying Force India @ 1.

It's a different profile I agree.  You win big if force India reel them in.  You win a bit if they finish behind Williams/Ferrari.  Lose 7 points for 3rd.  I was actually referring to selling their constructor points though.  If you think there is a decent chance they come 5th then it's way too high.

I did consider this also, Red Bull's constructor points "target" does seem a little high to me, but again, it's quite a big risk. I'm very wary of not losing all my money on spreads, being cautious 

But yeh, my Force India recommendation above still stands.

[Peter-27]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

[tikay]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

Peter,

Not sure whether to address you as The King of F1, or Mr Stubborn.....

I just want to return to Titanbet for a moment. I hope your bet wins, & I hope you get paid out.

My advice in future, if you are considering betting with anyone except the "big names" is to seek advice from some of the guys on here. Some of us have learned the hard way, you have to be very careful, but if a Firm has a dodgy rep, the boys on here will know - they make their living in Sports Betting, so they know most of the angles & dodgepots. 

You can always ask privately, via PM, & I could choose 10 or 12 names, but try sending a PM to the likes of Joe Beevers, ArgueBoy, Camel, or, if all else fails & you are desperate, Chompy.

Being freerolled by a bookie sucks.

Good luck this weekend with the Monza stuff.   

[Peter-27]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

Peter,

Not sure whether to address you as The King of F1, or Mr Stubborn.....

I just want to return to Titanbet for a moment. I hope your bet wins, & I hope you get paid out.

My advice in future, if you are considering betting with anyone except the "big names" is to seek advice from some of the guys on here. Some of us have learned the hard way, you have to be very careful, but if a Firm has a dodgy rep, the boys on here will know - they make their living in Sports Betting, so they know most of the angles & dodgepots. 

You can always ask privately, via PM, & I could choose 10 or 12 names, but try sending a PM to the likes of Joe Beevers, ArgueBoy, Camel, or, if all else fails & you are desperate, Chompy.

Being freerolled by a bookie sucks.

Good luck this weekend with the Monza stuff.   

Haha! I have been called both in the past 

Thanks, I appreciate being able to call on the experience of you guys 

Let me ask, which of the bookies here are ones that I should not be registering with:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

.. I'm with nearly all of them! Obviously I will look to close my TitanBet account when the open bet is settled.

[tikay]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

Peter,

Not sure whether to address you as The King of F1, or Mr Stubborn.....

I just want to return to Titanbet for a moment. I hope your bet wins, & I hope you get paid out.

My advice in future, if you are considering betting with anyone except the "big names" is to seek advice from some of the guys on here. Some of us have learned the hard way, you have to be very careful, but if a Firm has a dodgy rep, the boys on here will know - they make their living in Sports Betting, so they know most of the angles & dodgepots. 

You can always ask privately, via PM, & I could choose 10 or 12 names, but try sending a PM to the likes of Joe Beevers, ArgueBoy, Camel, or, if all else fails & you are desperate, Chompy.

Being freerolled by a bookie sucks.

Good luck this weekend with the Monza stuff.   

Haha! I have been called both in the past 

Thanks, I appreciate being able to call on the experience of you guys 

Let me ask, which of the bookies here are ones that I should not be registering with:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

.. I'm with nearly all of them! Obviously I will look to close my TitanBet account when the open bet is settled.

I will leave that to others, as I have no credible evidence other than rumours, & it would be wrong to comment on rumours.

I only mentioned TitanBet as I have a file of e-mails as long as my arm about them from guys who know me from here or Next Door, & I even wrote to them myself on behalf of one of them as they were behaving shamefully.

As a general rule, & ignoring the 2 Exchanges  at the far right of the list, I would say if there are any to be wary of, they will be towards the right hand end of that list as shown on Oddschecker. Being on Oddschecker does not guarantee anything, but if an obscure outfit is NOT on Oddschecker, I'd tread warily. 

[TightEnd]

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no bets completed yesterday. to be honest i'm struggling to do the reports but the pics above give you a clue

[tikay]

oioi, a Tighty picture gallery, happy days, thanks Rich.

Why "struggling to do the reports"?

Lack of time, lack of oomph, lack of feedback or interest?

[tikay]

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Good  grief, has she been on a body building course or something?