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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16417162 times)
The Camel
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« Reply #1065 on: March 03, 2012, 08:30:00 PM »

And if you think the other side is value, you shouldn't be greening out anyway.

You should be switching your position to get with them.
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tikay
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« Reply #1066 on: March 03, 2012, 08:32:53 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?
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Karabiner
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« Reply #1067 on: March 03, 2012, 08:39:58 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?

I misclicked and typed 1.6 as opposed to 2.6 but only one of those is 11/8 Wink
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tikay
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« Reply #1068 on: March 03, 2012, 08:55:18 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?

I misclicked and typed 1.6 as opposed to 2.6 but only one of those is 11/8 Wink

Only 2.18 now.

Too late?
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TheWhisper
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« Reply #1069 on: March 03, 2012, 09:03:05 PM »

The bet was a lay so you have done ok by not doing it
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« Reply #1070 on: March 03, 2012, 09:09:50 PM »

Please please please stop all this greening out nonsense.

It's a losing strategy for sure.

If you have £50 on a team at evens and they go 1-0 down and never get level you won't have the chance to green out and be -£50

The next match you have £50 at evens and they go 1-0 up in the 5th minute. You green out at 1.4 and they go on to win you'll be +£30.

Instead of being level, you are losing a score.

Unless something happens which means you think opposing the side you have backed to start with is value, greening out is a mugs game.

And you are shrewd. You said so.

Eg. of a good time to lay your bet off: Arsenal vs Tottenham-  Hero decides that all the signs pre-match indicate a Spurs win and backs £100 at 3.35. The match begins frantically, with both sides having chances. Tottenham score a goal on the break, then Arsenal have a few chances to score, before Bale takes a dive in the box and it's 0-2. By this point Arsenal have shown definate hints that they will be able to score against the Spurs defence, but the price for Spurs is now 1.3. Laying back your stake to get your £100 back into the account will cost you 30 of your profit, so instead of +235, -100, -100, you will be +205, +/- 0, +/-0. In this situation trading your position will have saved the hero £100, at a reasonable loss-of-profit.

Of course the ideal thing if you think the game will turn right around would be to lay a lot more than just your stake, to put profit on the Draw and Arsenal, but the point I'm trying to make is that sometimes all the pre-match analysis is correct but the game is not going as you thought, so being able to change your pre-match position is very valuable.

Another example of good times to lay the stake back are mid-game personnel changes. Today I was betting for lots of goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal and was looking good, then Arteta got injured and was replaced by Abou Diaby, so a creative attacking midfielder for a primarily solid defensive one. I immediately traded my stake out and the game was a lot tighter in the 2nd half. (Obviously this wasnt the only reason for the change in momentum, but I believed at the time it could have an effect on my bet and traded accordingly.)
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tikay
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« Reply #1071 on: March 03, 2012, 09:22:23 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?

I misclicked and typed 1.6 as opposed to 2.6 but only one of those is 11/8 Wink

After consultation with my personal golf corry, I have laid £100 @ 2.2.
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« Reply #1072 on: March 03, 2012, 09:37:27 PM »

If I catch Ralphy greening out again, am gonna report him to Camel.
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« Reply #1073 on: March 03, 2012, 10:11:03 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?

I misclicked and typed 1.6 as opposed to 2.6 but only one of those is 11/8 Wink

After consultation with my personal golf corry, I have laid £100 @ 2.2.

urghh. i don't like that bet. The boy is on fire and no big other big names around him, apart from bradley maybe. gl tho obv.
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« Reply #1074 on: March 03, 2012, 10:47:34 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?

I misclicked and typed 1.6 as opposed to 2.6 but only one of those is 11/8 Wink

After consultation with my personal golf corry, I have laid £100 @ 2.2.

urghh. i don't like that bet. The boy is on fire and no big other big names around him, apart from bradley maybe. gl tho obv.

A bit of an aftertime there Tom. The 2.2 was quite quickly 2.6 which justifies the bet right there and then.
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« Reply #1075 on: March 03, 2012, 10:53:59 PM »

Sorry Boss.

Can someone explain that Rory price, please - I am not seeing that price on Betfair?

I misclicked and typed 1.6 as opposed to 2.6 but only one of those is 11/8 Wink

After consultation with my personal golf corry, I have laid £100 @ 2.2.

urghh. i don't like that bet. The boy is on fire and no big other big names around him, apart from bradley maybe. gl tho obv.

A bit of an aftertime there Tom. The 2.2 was quite quickly 2.6 which justifies the bet right there and then.

yeah maybe. i flicked the golf on and he was 1 clear, not sure what he was when the bet was posted, so yes, apologies. Still wouldn't like to back against him at the moment.
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« Reply #1076 on: March 03, 2012, 11:18:02 PM »

Going to be very bad weather tomorrow so you still have outs, I think they have decided to bring the tee times forward in case there are any disruptions, tho I haven't actually seen the tee times yet so not 100%.

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« Reply #1077 on: March 03, 2012, 11:21:19 PM »

they have decided to bring the tee times forward.



PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. — Due to bad weather expected for Sunday, tee times have been moved up for the final round with players going off both tees in groups of three between 8:30 and 10:30 a.m.
According to the forecast, thunderstorms are possible beginning at Noon Sunday with a 40 percent chance of rain. By 1 p.m., the chance of rain increases to 50 percent. Winds as high as 25 mph are also expected
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« Reply #1078 on: March 03, 2012, 11:48:51 PM »

Please please please stop all this greening out nonsense.

It's a losing strategy for sure.

If you have £50 on a team at evens and they go 1-0 down and never get level you won't have the chance to green out and be -£50

The next match you have £50 at evens and they go 1-0 up in the 5th minute. You green out at 1.4 and they go on to win you'll be +£30.

Instead of being level, you are losing a score.

Unless something happens which means you think opposing the side you have backed to start with is value, greening out is a mugs game.

And you are shrewd. You said so.

Eg. of a good time to lay your bet off: Arsenal vs Tottenham-  Hero decides that all the signs pre-match indicate a Spurs win and backs £100 at 3.35. The match begins frantically, with both sides having chances. Tottenham score a goal on the break, then Arsenal have a few chances to score, before Bale takes a dive in the box and it's 0-2. By this point Arsenal have shown definate hints that they will be able to score against the Spurs defence, but the price for Spurs is now 1.3. Laying back your stake to get your £100 back into the account will cost you 30 of your profit, so instead of +235, -100, -100, you will be +205, +/- 0, +/-0. In this situation trading your position will have saved the hero £100, at a reasonable loss-of-profit.

Of course the ideal thing if you think the game will turn right around would be to lay a lot more than just your stake, to put profit on the Draw and Arsenal, but the point I'm trying to make is that sometimes all the pre-match analysis is correct but the game is not going as you thought, so being able to change your pre-match position is very valuable.

Another example of good times to lay the stake back are mid-game personnel changes. Today I was betting for lots of goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal and was looking good, then Arteta got injured and was replaced by Abou Diaby, so a creative attacking midfielder for a primarily solid defensive one. I immediately traded my stake out and the game was a lot tighter in the 2nd half. (Obviously this wasnt the only reason for the change in momentum, but I believed at the time it could have an effect on my bet and traded accordingly.)

I think you're arguing against yourself here.  If you think the momentum or whatever has gone the other way and the other side is the value, you don't just cover off your stake.  As long as the amounts you are betting aren't silly compared to bankroll you shouldn't be worrying about saving/covering the outlay - you should be more concerned about maximising your returns having spotted a good situation.
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« Reply #1079 on: March 04, 2012, 01:11:05 AM »

Great football tipping boys, congrats Ty.
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