Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

Front page of bfsb

Ayr Raid
Conquer Gold (12:55) & Lake View Lad (14:00) BOTH TO WIN 9/4

7/4 best priced elsewhere double.

Max £100 would suggest the whole works.

and  this

Gold Rush
Conquer Gold (12:55 Ayr) & Miss Goldsmith (14:50 Southwell) BOTH TO WIN 7/1

Max £71 i had best priced 4/1 elsewhere.

Where has this come from betfair!

Seems absoutely bonkers to let people put so much on bets at 175% of their true price and then restrict others to pennies on bets that aren't even dirty.  Yet they plough on and make bazillions. 

Cheap way to close arbers/putteron'ers accounts from pro's on a quiet MOnday imo. People keep falling for this modern day trap.

We will see wont we!

[arbboy]

Front page of bfsb

Ayr Raid
Conquer Gold (12:55) & Lake View Lad (14:00) BOTH TO WIN 9/4

7/4 best priced elsewhere double.

Max £100 would suggest the whole works.

and  this

Gold Rush
Conquer Gold (12:55 Ayr) & Miss Goldsmith (14:50 Southwell) BOTH TO WIN 7/1

Max £71 i had best priced 4/1 elsewhere.

Where has this come from betfair!

Seems absoutely bonkers to let people put so much on bets at 175% of their true price and then restrict others to pennies on bets that aren't even dirty.  Yet they plough on and make bazillions.  

Cheap way to close arbers/putteron'ers accounts from pro's on a quiet MOnday imo. People keep falling for this modern day trap.

We will see wont we!

I am much more interested in what the bf sp double price is for this rather than the price now.  bf sp won't just randomly stick up two horses over the odds.  They will want to lay these at the current prices for a proper reason.  They will have been given a decent mark to do this imo.  I might be wrong.  All 'price boosts/rushes' whatever the fuck you call them are just basically 'lays of the day' by the firms of things their loltraders think are underpriced.

By the very nature of betfair they have access to more shrewd info than all the other books put together imo.  I will be amazed if this is a proper ev giveaway come post time.  Even if it is it will cost pennies to cost price sensitive ev hunting accounts for them

[BorntoBubble]

The key to both of these then is Conquer Gold. We will see tomorrow afternoon.

[atdc21]

Conquer Gold is one of those 'short cos it may have potential' types , its a bad race and may well prove worthy of 4/7 but not one for me.

[arbboy]

betfair do these price boosts on the rpgtv dogs when barry orr is in the studio.  They clearly get some incredible marks because everyone they put up at a so called 'huge' price goes off even bigger on the exchange sp wise and pretty much always gets beat.  I would be very careful of thinking you have an edge in this spot.  Win/lose/draw.

[BorntoBubble]

What's the difference between this spot and the osullivan selby double last week with hills?

[arbboy]

What's the difference between this spot and the osullivan selby double last week with hills?

Betfair have access to the biggest 1000 winning professional gamblers in the uk and all their business.  Hills don't.

Plus the price of these horses overnight is not 'tight' like the snooker prices were last week with hills.  Hills were just giving away ev as a marketing exercise.  They had no edge.  Betfair might not have an edge here but i would be very surprised if they don't.  It is not exactly going to suck in the Saturday casuals on a dark cold Tues is it?  It has to be designed imo for the wrong reasons for the customers.  The fact one horse is linked to both should be making you smell a rat.

I have seen first handed how much cash they make out of their price boosts on the tv dogs when orr is in the studio.  They go 5/2 about a dog that is generally 6/4 on the earlys.  The dog routinely goes off 7/2+ on the exchanges which is the only price that matters.  They are running ahead of ev on them but i can't even remember the last time one of these dogs boosted won and they are all short in the morning.

[atdc21]

I would say the horse bet is more open to 'unknowns' happening, where the snooker is more transparent, im not sure on the marketing side but Arb will have an idea.
Could still be a great spot tho

[arbboy]

The snooker prices in the 1/4 finals of the masters are as rock solid as a porn stars cock.  I don't think you can say that about any horse on a wet dark Tues in early January when the ground is soft/heavy.  imo only of course.  I haven't looked at any of the races myself just going off instinct.

[cheapwetsuit]

Aaaah... at long last cycling is back on the menu. The Tour Down Under starts tomorrow, and although there isn't much value to be had (Simon Gerrans to win outright @ 7/2 and Caleb Ewan to win Stage 1 @ Evens are about right price-wise), there is one banzai bet that I'm pretty sweet on.

Tsgabu Grmay is a young Ethiopian who rides for Lampre-Merida. He came 11th overall in last year's edition of the race, and has been training at altitude back home over our Winter. On paper, he'll be riding for team leaders Diego Ulissi and Louis Meintjies, but I'm thinking Lampre might be holding something back. I'm not yet sold on a drug-free Ulissi, and Meintjies seems to have had a relaxed Winter (possibly holding back for the Tour de France which he is aiming for). Meintjies has also said in an interview that Grmay is in top nick, and that the TDU is a big goal for the youngster (he might not get another chance to shine what with Ulissi, Meintjies and Costa sharing the captaincy). Curiously, Grmay has also been absent from all of Lampre's training/promo videos and pics. Are they keeping their dark horse under wraps?

300/1 at BetUnfair SportsBok is a big enough price for me to flick in a small each-way bet. I suggest £5 e/w for Fred.

oioi, welcome back Wetty, & HNY to you.

Hi cws,

love the banzais, keep em coming. Was going to watch, but on here at 2am. Please post a link of any highlights you see, ty.

Good to be back, teeks. Would be great to get the new year started with a banzai boom. Tonji, I'll try my best to do daily updates, and will post up links when I see them. Good luck to us.

[arbboy]

Looks like there wasn't a catch.  They are 7/4 and 7/2 now.  Hope they honour the 7/1 and it wasn't meant to be 7/2.  gl anyone that is on.  Looks like you all have the best of it.

[horseplayer]

Latest PremierLeague odds

Man City - Evens
Arsenal - 6/4
Leicester - 16/1
Tottenham - 16/1

http://btfr.co/PremOutright 


Shelvey to Newcastle✓
Afobe to Bournemouth✓
Naismith to Norwich✓

Who's going down? (sunderland and norwich please)

Odds: http://bit.ly/PLdrop 

I have to say I think Norwich are overpriced for the drop at over 2/1.  Think Newcastle will spend their way out of it and Big Sam has got Sunderland improving.

Do Norwich really survive 70% of the time we run it?

Hate to say it as well, but if Watford lose tonight and don't beat Newcastle Saturday then 50/1 will look huge given the run after that.  The lads look fatigued after very little squad rotation.  A couple more wins kill it though and the run in is West Brom/Norwich/Villa/Liverpool/Sunderland.

Surprised managed Norwich have managed to sign klose from wolfsburg with seemingly little competition.

Very solid defender experienced easily good enough for a top 10 side.

[horseplayer]

Latest PremierLeague odds

Man City - Evens
Arsenal - 6/4
Leicester - 16/1
Tottenham - 16/1

http://btfr.co/PremOutright 


Shelvey to Newcastle✓
Afobe to Bournemouth✓
Naismith to Norwich✓

Who's going down? (sunderland and norwich please)

Odds: http://bit.ly/PLdrop 

I have to say I think Norwich are overpriced for the drop at over 2/1.  Think Newcastle will spend their way out of it and Big Sam has got Sunderland improving.

Do Norwich really survive 70% of the time we run it?

Hate to say it as well, but if Watford lose tonight and don't beat Newcastle Saturday then 50/1 will look huge given the run after that.  The lads look fatigued after very little squad rotation.  A couple more wins kill it though and the run in is West Brom/Norwich/Villa/Liverpool/Sunderland.

Surprised Norwich have managed to sign klose from wolfsburg with seemingly little competition.

Very solid defender experienced easily good enough for a top 10 side.

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

Jaziri bet is a loser. Leading 2 sets to 1 he then lost a 4th set tie break, and the 5th set 8-6.

[TightEnd]

loss yesterday £15

profit on month £499.47

outstanding bets £3608.88

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=34


-£15 overnight Jaziri lost 3 sets to 2 to Robredo in Melbourne

an unfortunate day with

- an impending £50 loss on the final Alan Curtis bet

- an impending £20 loss on Conor Washington's transfer out of league one

and Watford, now looking tired and last night disinterested, marooned on 29 points and we long at 35.5 after losing 1-0 at Swansea



we have norwich and sunderland to go down, and must have chances....