Tips for Tikay

[maldini32]

Thoughts on Wawrinka ew in the aussie open? 10/1,  1/2 odds

Nadal is out, Murray who is in his half could go anytime if baby comes.

I'm no tennis expert, thoughts from the more knowledgeable lot, Hector? Brent?

[nellberg]

They knew!  Friendless goes off close to evens bf sp (1.96)

They knew what? He was there at the finish, probably pretty close if he didnt jump badly at the last and the winners price didnt change, drifted from early show. If they knew then the winner would be gambled, that race in no way proved any point you have made. (zero financial investment other than a few quid on winner as per tip elsewhere).

The jolly drifted from 1.6 to 1.96 on bf. BF put the jolly in both bets of the price boost for a reason.  It would suggest they knew the jolly wasn't winning today via their client base.  They don't pay out on many 'price bombs/boosts' or whatever they call them very often.  Believe me i have sat and watched Barry Orr on RPGTV with a smug grin on his face enough times listening to his nonsense when they get beat.

I would be far more interested in laying betfair's price bombs than any other firm by a mile for the reasons i gave yesterday.  You are entitled to your opinion.  

Would this make the other two less or more likely to win? I mean if you sell boosts based around the same horse twice, surely the best way to sell the product in the future (without paying out obv) is to give out likely winners with it? Do they simply not care after selling a dud double.

The 2nd one is drifting like a barge as well.  Out to 3/1 on the exchange.  So if you take the bf sp of the first at evens.  You are getting 7/1 about a 7/1 double.  I stand by my point by the very nature of their business bf are more likely to know non triers and drifters than any other firm out there by a mile.

They don't randomly pick horses for these boosts like some firms do imo in big races.  Again this is just my opinion.  Beware of sharp operators offering you a carrot on non high profile events on a quiet Tues.  There is probably a reason.  Similar to when i offered huge prices on that tennis player not winning 2-0 back in 2004 in the bent game.  

Why limit me to £100 and £70 respectively then if this is there plan.

Why not let me have £500 and then i will go to their exchange to lay back?

No idea you will have to ask them that.   You do that and they will simply close your sportsbook account for arbing (which is probably the whole point of this exercise in the first place) and they get to close an account for no ev cost which is price sensitive.  Seems good business for bf.

Forgive my naivety, but why would Betty put up an offer in the hope of being able to close some accounts? I agree that they'll be picking horses that they think are too short and will likely drift, that goes without saying, but they really sat round a table saying "we'll do a Tuesday price boost, anyone who lays it we'll boot out, that'll thin our customer base down niicely"?

[bergeroo]

Thoughts on Wawrinka ew in the aussie open? 10/1,  1/2 odds

Nadal is out, Murray who is in his half could go anytime if baby comes.

I'm no tennis expert, thoughts from the more knowledgeable lot, Hector? Brent?

At the weekend I bet on Raonic to reach the final and win his quarter as I wanted to oppose Nadal, sadly as Nadal already flaked out that price has gone. Think the bottom of the draw is open. Problem with the each way is that Djoko is such a crusher that you are mostly playing for the place part. Yes Stan has of course beaten him before. Will Murray really leave is if he makes the final and the waters break? he probably wouldn't make the actual birth anyway with a 24 hour flight!

[Horneris]

Thoughts on Wawrinka ew in the aussie open? 10/1,  1/2 odds

Nadal is out, Murray who is in his half could go anytime if baby comes.

I'm no tennis expert, thoughts from the more knowledgeable lot, Hector? Brent?

Seems fine to me. He won't have any problems in the next round vs Stepanek or in the 3rd round vs Rosol/a sick Sock.

Fwiw hes 12/1 with sporting bet now but only a third e/w.

The draw has definetly opened up in the 3rd Quarter with the exits of Nadal and Anderson. The big one would be the 4th round where he would meet Raonic.

I like Raonic to finally fulfill his potential in a slam and have a good run (came into the tourn in form, winning Brisbane beating a flu'ed up Federer in the final) but 10/3 best for the Quarter now is skinny enough with Robredo/Troicki/Wawrinka/Monfils a possible route and my enthusiasm for the 33s E/W outright is tempered as Murray eats big servers for breakfast.

cliffs: backing Wawrinka is fine, but he might lose in the 4th round but he might not.

[arbboy]

All inside crayford first 3 races.

[Chompy]

Re: Watford, I think rather than back them for relegation, I'd sooner have Flores next for the boot (PMd Tighty earlier to flick in a bonsai tenner at 66-1).

After Newcastle they have Chelsea and Spurs. Couple of hammerings there and his price will timber.

Van Gaal and Garde both too short imo. Would sooner back no manager to leave at 8-1 than either of that pair. Bit of mileage in Alex Neil at 16-1 too?

[cheapwetsuit]

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but doesn't Fred have a policy of unloading the clip when Carlisle plays midweek matches in the South?

[TightEnd]

Quique Flores Premier League Next Manager To Leave Post
66/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £670.00


i like alex neil 16/1 betvictor

all the clubs down there know this is the season you have to stay up with the new tv deal meaning £120m+ even for finishing 20th next year

villa have changed
sunderland have changed
newcastle changed start of season
swansea have changed

norwich two points off 18th with an inexperienced manager and Moyes saying he wants to get back in and Pearson touring the media studios putting himself out there

new chairman at norwich too, last 2 results 0-3 at bournemouth 1-3 at stoke

games coming

liverpool, tottenham, at villa, west ham, at leicester

16/1

[TightEnd]

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but doesn't Fred have a policy of unloading the clip when Carlisle plays midweek matches in the South?

not a policy

i mentioned it ahead of a trip to plymouth where i saw the team was doing it on a coach trip, there and back in a day. carlisle lost 4-0 but we didn't back it

the next time, maybe the week after, they won on a trip to the south east

where are they tonight?

carlisle have been playing home games at blackpool and preston since the floods so i expect a lot of this travelling/disruption si water off a ducks back(no pun intended) these days

[bergeroo]

Quique Flores Premier League Next Manager To Leave Post
66/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £670.00


i like alex neil 16/1 betvictor

all the clubs down there know this is the season you have to stay up with the new tv deal meaning £120m+ even for finishing 20th next year

villa have changed
sunderland have changed
newcastle changed start of season
swansea have changed

norwich two points off 18th with an inexperienced manager and Moyes saying he wants to get back in and Pearson touring the media studios putting himself out there

new chairman at norwich too, last 2 results 0-3 at bournemouth 1-3 at stoke

games coming

liverpool, tottenham, at villa, west ham, at leicester

16/1

Seems plausible to me. My mate is a United fan and journalist, attends all the pressers and goes to all games and speaks and thinks about Man U all day every day. He thinks LVG is ridic short in this market and no way should he be anywhere near that short as they went through the terrible run and he wasn't fired. So I guess it is a matter of finding something to oppose him with.

[cheapwetsuit]

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but doesn't Fred have a policy of unloading the clip when Carlisle plays midweek matches in the South?

not a policy

i mentioned it ahead of a trip to plymouth where i saw the team was doing it on a coach trip, there and back in a day. carlisle lost 4-0 but we didn't back it

the next time, maybe the week after, they won on a trip to the south east

where are they tonight?

carlisle have been playing home games at blackpool and preston since the floods so i expect a lot of this travelling/disruption si water off a ducks back(no pun intended) these days

They're playing Yeovil tonight in an FA Cup 3rd round replay. But just did some research, and apparently they've stayed down South after playing Barnet on the weekend. My bad.

[arbboy]

Still all rails at crayford after 6 races.  Not a t6 sighted so far in first 3 of any race

[JohnCharver]

Still all rails at crayford after 6 races.  Not a t6 sighted so far in first 3 of any race

tricast just scooped cheers

[arbboy]

Still all rails at crayford after 6 races.  Not a t6 sighted so far in first 3 of any race

tricast just scooped cheers

6 missed the trouble in last race and led at 1st bend and still couldn't win.  t1 came from miles back and nearly made it another 1x2 combo fcast

[JohnCharver]

you have incred jinx ability lol