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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16220209 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #112590 on: January 24, 2016, 11:48:43 AM »

Morning Tighty.

I find myself at odds with you today as I think that Exeter will beat Ospreys. Having not lost at home for over a year will negate the fact that they are all but out of the cup. It will take a very good team, or a bad Exeter performance to win there and Ospreys are not the former, but the latter could happen.

2 small bets on the game which I suggest. 40-1 on no try scorer, it rained all yesterday and it is raining again. In total opposition to that suggestion I think Thomas Waldrom as 1st try scorer is good too. Both bets are with betfred who are double the odds on Waldrom if he scores 2 tries.

£5 on each with betfred Waldrom @ 10-1  no try scorer @ 40-1.

Exeter v Ospreys
1st Tryscorer
   Waldrom, Thomas   10/1   
Total stake   5.00
Estimated return   55.00
Full stake   5.00
Full estimated return   55.00

after that

there is a dialogue error/bug currently preventing me using betfred for the no tryscorer

tried for 15 minutes, gave up

I just tried to get that on, same problem, it says "please Log In" when I clearly am logged in. 

tried on two machines to make sure it wasn't my system but no its something buggy on your account.

all for a fiver bet. these bookmaker interfaces don't make it easy sometimes
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« Reply #112591 on: January 24, 2016, 11:54:53 AM »

The Chesterfield relegation bet is still very much live, but we need Oldham to get their arse in gear. Colchester and Crewe are both pretty much doomed, so only one spot left if Oldham don't improve.

Chesterfield may be about to lose their last remaining class act, with Champo clubs circling round Sam Morsy. Then we could really be in business. In February they play Posh, Burton and Gillingham, as well as two of their relegation rivals.

Poshies ulul at Gills yesterday, should have been two or three up at half-time, then hit the bar and post, and had a clear pen rebuffed. New boys then started to tire, but we'll be alright. Huge game v Burton on Tuesday.

I was pleasently surprised when i saw the league table this morning , i thought they were a lot higher.
Could go down to the last couple of games.
Been a good sweat anyway.
In Chompy we trust.
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« Reply #112592 on: January 24, 2016, 12:06:42 PM »



Good stuff Rich, thank you.

I rather enjoyed these 2 deadpan lines.....

i have also taken the Leicester to be relegated bet as a loser

you might have noticed, but Leicester are top with 15 games to go



Very good.




I preferred " Charlton's charge to the playoffs began with a home draw"

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tikay
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« Reply #112593 on: January 24, 2016, 12:10:28 PM »



Good stuff Rich, thank you.

I rather enjoyed these 2 deadpan lines.....

i have also taken the Leicester to be relegated bet as a loser

you might have noticed, but Leicester are top with 15 games to go



Very good.




I preferred " Charlton's charge to the playoffs began with a home draw"



Ha, it's full of such stuff.
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« Reply #112594 on: January 24, 2016, 12:11:36 PM »

Morning Tighty.

I find myself at odds with you today as I think that Exeter will beat Ospreys. Having not lost at home for over a year will negate the fact that they are all but out of the cup. It will take a very good team, or a bad Exeter performance to win there and Ospreys are not the former, but the latter could happen.

2 small bets on the game which I suggest. 40-1 on no try scorer, it rained all yesterday and it is raining again. In total opposition to that suggestion I think Thomas Waldrom as 1st try scorer is good too. Both bets are with betfred who are double the odds on Waldrom if he scores 2 tries.

£5 on each with betfred Waldrom @ 10-1  no try scorer @ 40-1.

Exeter v Ospreys
1st Tryscorer
   Waldrom, Thomas   10/1   
Total stake   5.00
Estimated return   55.00
Full stake   5.00
Full estimated return   55.00

after that

there is a dialogue error/bug currently preventing me using betfred for the no tryscorer

tried for 15 minutes, gave up

I just tried to get that on, same problem, it says "please Log In" when I clearly am logged in. 

tried on two machines to make sure it wasn't my system but no its something buggy on your account.

all for a fiver bet. these bookmaker interfaces don't make it easy sometimes

This happens to me on Betfred and I have to switch to chrome occasionaly.
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tikay
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« Reply #112595 on: January 24, 2016, 12:17:59 PM »

Morning Tighty.

I find myself at odds with you today as I think that Exeter will beat Ospreys. Having not lost at home for over a year will negate the fact that they are all but out of the cup. It will take a very good team, or a bad Exeter performance to win there and Ospreys are not the former, but the latter could happen.

2 small bets on the game which I suggest. 40-1 on no try scorer, it rained all yesterday and it is raining again. In total opposition to that suggestion I think Thomas Waldrom as 1st try scorer is good too. Both bets are with betfred who are double the odds on Waldrom if he scores 2 tries.

£5 on each with betfred Waldrom @ 10-1  no try scorer @ 40-1.

Exeter v Ospreys
1st Tryscorer
   Waldrom, Thomas   10/1   
Total stake   5.00
Estimated return   55.00
Full stake   5.00
Full estimated return   55.00

after that

there is a dialogue error/bug currently preventing me using betfred for the no tryscorer

tried for 15 minutes, gave up

I just tried to get that on, same problem, it says "please Log In" when I clearly am logged in. 

tried on two machines to make sure it wasn't my system but no its something buggy on your account.

all for a fiver bet. these bookmaker interfaces don't make it easy sometimes

This happens to me on Betfred and I have to switch to chrome occasionaly.

BOOM.

Well done Jim, thanks, that worked, & we are all aboard the hector banzai.

Bet placed, its reference is 560/602
Bet ref: 560/602 £5.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Exeter v Ospreys
1st Tryscorer
No Tryscorer   40/1   
Total stake   £ 5.00
Estimated return   £ 205.00
Full stake   £ 5.00
Full estimated return   £ 205.00


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« Reply #112596 on: January 24, 2016, 12:27:58 PM »

Comedy scenes from Posh game last weekend. This lineo was the worst I've ever seen. Mistake after mistake, and then did this after Maddison's dive.



Foul, throw, corner, goal kick, substitution.
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« Reply #112597 on: January 24, 2016, 12:51:27 PM »

Talking of Posh

Watched Cardiff v Rotherham yesterday


You will within the next 12 months get a very nice sell on from Joe Newell. Best player on the park by a mile yesterday and talking to a few Rothers fans before the game he has been all season.

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« Reply #112598 on: January 24, 2016, 12:54:38 PM »

Yuh, heard he's been doing well. Never quite did it for us. Talented but lacked confidence, which is obv there now. Know there's a decent sell-on.
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« Reply #112599 on: January 24, 2016, 12:59:31 PM »

Main outlet for them wants the ball uses it well intelligent player

If they go down he is deffo away and even if they dont probably
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« Reply #112600 on: January 24, 2016, 01:02:26 PM »

Federer putting on a masterclass on Eurosport now if you want something to watch.  Quite amazing how well he is still capable of playing at his age.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #112601 on: January 24, 2016, 01:08:32 PM »

In 8 career playoff games, Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald is averaging 114 receiving yards & has scored 10 TDs. these include a TD in the superbowl they lost and last weekend with a key TD and that big reception at the start of overtime

he's a hall of fame entrant when he retires and as he's got older and they've recruited a high-powered set of receivers he's changed his game

this season he's played more than half of snaps in the slot..ie near the linemen and not out wide (and fitzgerald is the best blocking receiver in the game which has been a great success for them this year)... the likes of michael floyd and john brown line up out wide because they are quick but don't have larry fitz's all round game

the key for this, today, is that panthers have josh norman at cb one of the best of the league at covering, but this season he's only defended the slot on 1.3% of snaps

so fitzgerald will be going against Cortland Finnegan primarily and if the Panthers D has a weakness, its in the slot not at cover cornerback out wide


various bookmakers do touchdown offers for the conference games

for example, BFSB Max bet £25 double odds if 2+ touchdowns by the player

for example Ladbrokes Max bet £25 double the odds if your player scores a TD in the first ten minutes


with this match up i like 5/4ish Larry Fitz anytime on its own, and the offers if they are accessible

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/arizona-cardinals-at-carolina-panthers/anytime-touchdown-scorer
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« Reply #112602 on: January 24, 2016, 01:33:26 PM »

Larry Fitzgerald had the best Postseason performance i have ever seen back in 2008.
If memory serves me right, Fitzgerald had four  +100 yard receiving games from the Wildcard through to the Superbowl.  Didnt matter if he was double-teamed, or even triple teamed.
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« Reply #112603 on: January 24, 2016, 01:42:37 PM »

Seems perfectly sensible to me. Much as I like to look at the tight end options for games like this (and Carson Palmer has previously commented on how much he likes having two good receiving tight ends in Fells and Gresham in the red zone), Carolina are number one defending that position.

Their only weakness is deep right, which may well have been affected as a stat because of injuries.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Who will Norman cover, Tighty? Will he focus on Floyd or will he pick and choose? Fitz has to be covered but they can throw fake blitzes and use the linebackers to marshall the Z routes/slot passes if needed. They can't let Palmer get settled but you'd have to think they want him throwing to allow the defense to make plays.

How quick are the defenders? The stats suggest they're good in the deep but that's helped by the elite pass rush, which pressures the quarterback and doesn't allow time to deliver deep balls. John Brown and JJ Nelson are playmaking speedsters in the deep. It'd be a massive statement to call a play like that but Nelson (who has caught a modest 27 passes all year) is 5/1 to score anytime (Billy Mountains). He ran a 4.24 forty yard dash last summer, which is 0.04 seconds off the record.

Second guessing Bruce Arians is pretty tough work though.  

Just mulling it really.
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« Reply #112604 on: January 24, 2016, 01:51:00 PM »

norman on floyd

i thought i liked carolina -3 earlier in the week and still do to an extent (carolina run game looks so powerful and arizona struggled last week in that area) but the panthers will need to get pressure on palmer as otherwise there are so many big play options if he has time.

in their favour of course kuechly and davis are brilliant linebackers with tonnes of range to help out the secondary

wouldn't be surprised if it was a 50+ point game think the line is 47

 
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I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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