Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Ryder Cup week and i despite not being the best player on show, I was expecting sub 10-1 for Patrick Reed after his Poulteresque Cup debut last time.

I suspect he will get an early game, with his antics likely to get the crowd going as much a reason to choose him as his current form. A decent first game will probably means he keeps his place, which is key to winning the bet.

Few prices up so far, but Sky are 12s and also chucking a free fiver back each time he wins, for those that can.

[horseplayer]

The first in a possible weekly feature of Brits Abroad.

This man is growing into himself at RB in Germany, playing for the most hated club in the league is probably not easy either.

Click to see full-size image.

But yesterday he got off the mark with a cracking goal, good start for the "scottish bale" no pressure.


The insular pundits who asked who Rb? And why the hell would he go to the Bundesliga when he could have been cover at Arsenal have gone quiet. Then again they have probably forgotten him until the next international break.


This man has been away a while now and seems very settled.




Quite what he has to do to get a sniff on an England place i am not sure. Voted best keeper in Greece last two seasons after going there as a backup.

Can't be many who have gone to Greece via Barnsley?

Finally and a quiz question, where is this man now and why was he in the news this/last week?

[TightEnd]

Ryder Cup week and i despite not being the best player on show, I was expecting sub 10-1 for Patrick Reed after his Poulteresque Cup debut last time.

I suspect he will get an early game, with his antics likely to get the crowd going as much a reason to choose him as his current form. A decent first game will probably means he keeps his place, which is key to winning the bet.

Few prices up so far, but Sky are 12s and also chucking a free fiver back each time he wins, for those that can.

maybe we can get a small portfolio of positions together?

for example I read over the weekend about the top team scorer markets, because i had in mind that the six European rookies were unlikely to play 5 matches and the number of Europeans who might could be counted off on the fingers of one hand

Rory, Rose, Stenson, Garcia(?) not even Kaymer or Westwood (?)

one thing i bookmarked was "In the seven Ryder Cups this century, no top overall points scorer played fewer than four of the possible five rounds. Five of them played the maximum."

"the only winner to have played less than four rounds this century was Dustin Johnson in 2012. Even in that case, he only shared the top US scorer tag in a five way tie."

"This century's numbers demonstrate how a significant chunk of the 24 competitors effectively have no chance. Only 59% played four or more rounds, with only 18% playing the maximum five. "

so for Europe for example at http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

the each way market pays 1/4 1,2,3 in a 12 runner market but realistically there are 6 or 7 golfers only likely to be placed here unless a rookie gets really hot early and plays everything, but that intuitively feels unlikely

is there much downside saying Stenson or Rose would play all five (maybe together in foursomes/fourballs) and getting 6/4 the place is quite interesting?

--

anyway there are lots of markets http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/betting-markets

--

for example Danny Willett has returned to a bit of form recently, lots of matchplay pedigree, teak tough temperament, good putter.

each way 1/3 1,2 is available on the top euro rookie market too http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european-rookie


plenty for you all to discuss and recommend anyway

[tikay]

^^^^

Yes, be good to put a little book together for this weekend.

Thanks Adzy for getting us started, though Fred has to swerve that one I guess.

[Ant040689]

Has anyone come across a market for both teams to score and double chance combined into one price?

[tikay]

Has anyone come across a market for both teams to score and double chance combined into one price?

Quite unrelated (probably?.....) are you happy with how things are shaping up under Sir Pardew, FEM?

[Dekka]

The first in a possible weekly feature of Brits Abroad.

This man is growing into himself at RB in Germany, playing for the most hated club in the league is probably not easy either.

Click to see full-size image.

But yesterday he got off the mark with a cracking goal, good start for the "scottish bale" no pressure.


The insular pundits who asked who Rb? And why the hell would he go to the Bundesliga when he could have been cover at Arsenal have gone quiet. Then again they have probably forgotten him until the next international break.


This man has been away a while now and seems very settled.




Quite what he has to do to get a sniff on an England place i am not sure. Voted best keeper in Greece last two seasons after going there as a backup.

Can't be many who have gone to Greece via Barnsley?

Finally and a quiz question, where is this man now and why was he in the news this/last week?

That's Gus Poyet's assistant at Real Betis Charlie Oatway.  This week he told the press that all referees in Spain are shit.

[T_Mar]

Ryder Cup week and i despite not being the best player on show, I was expecting sub 10-1 for Patrick Reed after his Poulteresque Cup debut last time.

I suspect he will get an early game, with his antics likely to get the crowd going as much a reason to choose him as his current form. A decent first game will probably means he keeps his place, which is key to winning the bet.

Few prices up so far, but Sky are 12s and also chucking a free fiver back each time he wins, for those that can.

maybe we can get a small portfolio of positions together?

for example I read over the weekend about the top team scorer markets, because i had in mind that the six European rookies were unlikely to play 5 matches and the number of Europeans who might could be counted off on the fingers of one hand

Rory, Rose, Stenson, Garcia(?) not even Kaymer or Westwood (?)

one thing i bookmarked was "In the seven Ryder Cups this century, no top overall points scorer played fewer than four of the possible five rounds. Five of them played the maximum."

"the only winner to have played less than four rounds this century was Dustin Johnson in 2012. Even in that case, he only shared the top US scorer tag in a five way tie."

"This century's numbers demonstrate how a significant chunk of the 24 competitors effectively have no chance. Only 59% played four or more rounds, with only 18% playing the maximum five. "

so for Europe for example at http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

the each way market pays 1/4 1,2,3 in a 12 runner market but realistically there are 6 or 7 golfers only likely to be placed here unless a rookie gets really hot early and plays everything, but that intuitively feels unlikely

is there much downside saying Stenson or Rose would play all five (maybe together in foursomes/fourballs) and getting 6/4 the place is quite interesting?

--

anyway there are lots of markets http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/betting-markets

--

for example Danny Willett has returned to a bit of form recently, lots of matchplay pedigree, teak tough temperament, good putter.

each way 1/3 1,2 is available on the top euro rookie market too http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european-rookie


plenty for you all to discuss and recommend anyway

Looks like great spot for an EW bet to me - Don't think you need to get too creative either, Rose and Stenson seem perfect candidates - I think there is fair chance they will play together? What are thoughts on that from betting perspective? All eggs in one basket but could put you in very strong position going into singles

Market only just forming on BF so no real guide to price as yet there

[T_Mar]

Has anyone come across a market for both teams to score and double chance combined into one price?

Choral have prices for BTTS and  Over / Under goals or BTTS and one team to win etc

Is that what you meant?

[horseplayer]

The first in a possible weekly feature of Brits Abroad.

This man is growing into himself at RB in Germany, playing for the most hated club in the league is probably not easy either.

Click to see full-size image.

But yesterday he got off the mark with a cracking goal, good start for the "scottish bale" no pressure.


The insular pundits who asked who Rb? And why the hell would he go to the Bundesliga when he could have been cover at Arsenal have gone quiet. Then again they have probably forgotten him until the next international break.


This man has been away a while now and seems very settled.




Quite what he has to do to get a sniff on an England place i am not sure. Voted best keeper in Greece last two seasons after going there as a backup.

Can't be many who have gone to Greece via Barnsley?

Finally and a quiz question, where is this man now and why was he in the news this/last week?

That's Gus Poyet's assistant at Real Betis Charlie Oatway.  This week he told the press that all referees in Spain are shit.

Nice one dekka

[Doobs]

Ryder Cup week and i despite not being the best player on show, I was expecting sub 10-1 for Patrick Reed after his Poulteresque Cup debut last time.

I suspect he will get an early game, with his antics likely to get the crowd going as much a reason to choose him as his current form. A decent first game will probably means he keeps his place, which is key to winning the bet.

Few prices up so far, but Sky are 12s and also chucking a free fiver back each time he wins, for those that can.

maybe we can get a small portfolio of positions together?

for example I read over the weekend about the top team scorer markets, because i had in mind that the six European rookies were unlikely to play 5 matches and the number of Europeans who might could be counted off on the fingers of one hand

Rory, Rose, Stenson, Garcia(?) not even Kaymer or Westwood (?)

one thing i bookmarked was "In the seven Ryder Cups this century, no top overall points scorer played fewer than four of the possible five rounds. Five of them played the maximum."

"the only winner to have played less than four rounds this century was Dustin Johnson in 2012. Even in that case, he only shared the top US scorer tag in a five way tie."

"This century's numbers demonstrate how a significant chunk of the 24 competitors effectively have no chance. Only 59% played four or more rounds, with only 18% playing the maximum five. "

so for Europe for example at http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

the each way market pays 1/4 1,2,3 in a 12 runner market but realistically there are 6 or 7 golfers only likely to be placed here unless a rookie gets really hot early and plays everything, but that intuitively feels unlikely

is there much downside saying Stenson or Rose would play all five (maybe together in foursomes/fourballs) and getting 6/4 the place is quite interesting?

--

anyway there are lots of markets http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/betting-markets

--

for example Danny Willett has returned to a bit of form recently, lots of matchplay pedigree, teak tough temperament, good putter.

each way 1/3 1,2 is available on the top euro rookie market too http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european-rookie


plenty for you all to discuss and recommend anyway

Looks like great spot for an EW bet to me - Don't think you need to get too creative either, Rose and Stenson seem perfect candidates - I think there is fair chance they will play together? What are thoughts on that from betting perspective? All eggs in one basket but could put you in very strong position going into singles

Market only just forming on BF so no real guide to price as yet there

Reading Tighty's post I was at first thinking that the each way terms look good, but thinking more about it, I think they are ok at best.  I like Rose as a win bet, and if assume 6/1 is fine, he is 14% to be first.  He is always going to be less likely to be 2nd than  1st with 12 runners, so make that 12%.  He is always less likely to be 3rd then 2nd, so make that 11%.

add them up and we get 37%.  We get 6/4 best price on the each way terms.  For that to be value, I'd have to be pretty sure 6/1 Rose was a really good bet, and if it was the 6/1 win only is likely a better bet than going each way.

 If you don't believe the percentages always tail off, then just think about what Tighty wrote.  The first places is very likely to be won by one of the first 4(or 5) in the market.  But I think that tails off when we get down to 2nd and 3rd.  A rookie playing 3 or 4 games is more likely to come third than he is first, as some at the top will play more games.  And following on from that, those at the top must be more likely to be first than 3rd (the statements are effectively the same). 

Just thinking out loud.

[T_Mar]

Ryder Cup week and i despite not being the best player on show, I was expecting sub 10-1 for Patrick Reed after his Poulteresque Cup debut last time.

I suspect he will get an early game, with his antics likely to get the crowd going as much a reason to choose him as his current form. A decent first game will probably means he keeps his place, which is key to winning the bet.

Few prices up so far, but Sky are 12s and also chucking a free fiver back each time he wins, for those that can.

maybe we can get a small portfolio of positions together?

for example I read over the weekend about the top team scorer markets, because i had in mind that the six European rookies were unlikely to play 5 matches and the number of Europeans who might could be counted off on the fingers of one hand

Rory, Rose, Stenson, Garcia(?) not even Kaymer or Westwood (?)

one thing i bookmarked was "In the seven Ryder Cups this century, no top overall points scorer played fewer than four of the possible five rounds. Five of them played the maximum."

"the only winner to have played less than four rounds this century was Dustin Johnson in 2012. Even in that case, he only shared the top US scorer tag in a five way tie."

"This century's numbers demonstrate how a significant chunk of the 24 competitors effectively have no chance. Only 59% played four or more rounds, with only 18% playing the maximum five. "

so for Europe for example at http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european

the each way market pays 1/4 1,2,3 in a 12 runner market but realistically there are 6 or 7 golfers only likely to be placed here unless a rookie gets really hot early and plays everything, but that intuitively feels unlikely

is there much downside saying Stenson or Rose would play all five (maybe together in foursomes/fourballs) and getting 6/4 the place is quite interesting?

--

anyway there are lots of markets http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/betting-markets

--

for example Danny Willett has returned to a bit of form recently, lots of matchplay pedigree, teak tough temperament, good putter.

each way 1/3 1,2 is available on the top euro rookie market too http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/top-european-rookie


plenty for you all to discuss and recommend anyway

Looks like great spot for an EW bet to me - Don't think you need to get too creative either, Rose and Stenson seem perfect candidates - I think there is fair chance they will play together? What are thoughts on that from betting perspective? All eggs in one basket but could put you in very strong position going into singles

Market only just forming on BF so no real guide to price as yet there

Reading Tighty's post I was at first thinking that the each way terms look good, but thinking more about it, I think they are ok at best.  I like Rose as a win bet, and if assume 6/1 is fine, he is 14% to be first.  He is always going to be less likely to be 2nd than  1st with 12 runners, so make that 12%.  He is always less likely to be 3rd then 2nd, so make that 11%.

add them up and we get 37%.  We get 6/4 best price on the each way terms.  For that to be value, I'd have to be pretty sure 6/1 Rose was a really good bet, and if it was the 6/1 win only is likely a better bet than going each way.

 If you don't believe the percentages always tail off, then just think about what Tighty wrote.  The first places is very likely to be won by one of the first 4(or 5) in the market.  But I think that tails off when we get down to 2nd and 3rd.  A rookie playing 3 or 4 games is more likely to come third than he is first, as some at the top will play more games.  And following on from that, those at the top must be more likely to be first than 3rd (the statements are effectively the same). 

Just thinking out loud.

Nice post, and deeper level thinking to me - All makes sense though

Do you think pairings impact your calcs? Would it be less likely an outsider would place if Rose and Stenson played together for 2 days and consequently scored same?

Appreciate it could go other way aswell but if you fancy one you fancy both right?

[doubleup]

Bear in mind that Stenson has a bit of a niggly injury and might not be up to playing 4 rounds in 2 days.  Rose and McIlroy would seem to be certs for all 4.  Then Garcia and Willett are surely 3/4 - I would put Willet up as playing all 4, but he seems to have intermittent back problems.  Westwood, Kaymer would have to play 2/3 as they were picked presumably on experience, so might be partnered with rookies to justify the captain's pick.

[Chompy]

Kaymer with Pieters a couple of times presumably?

Think Rose is a cracking EW bet tbh.

[Doobs]

Kaymer with Pieters a couple of times presumably?

Think Rose is a cracking EW bet tbh.

Ha, wouldn't to put anyone off.  I think Rose is the best win bet, so the place bet isn't going to be terrible.  I was just saying that this isn't really great each way terms that mean we can backb4 and get value on them all.

Lets do it for thread then. Given Stenson is injured and not sure I see Garcia playing 4.  50 e/w will be fine.