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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 9334486 times)
tikay
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« Reply #135870 on: April 26, 2019, 07:26:56 PM »

I have found the tipster for the Luton bet, it was placed in November, a nirvana recommend.

The next bet on the Spready was for Wolves to finish bottom half, which was down to FF.  
« Last Edit: April 26, 2019, 07:43:18 PM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #135871 on: April 26, 2019, 07:49:56 PM »

Nevermind playing with Fred's spready, get to your Vegas package.

More procrastination than one of my diets Wink
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« Reply #135872 on: April 26, 2019, 07:52:44 PM »

I have found the tipster for the Luton bet, it was placed in November, a nirvana recommend.

The next bet on the Spready was for Wolves to finish bottom half, which was down to FF.  

Still 3 games to go, keep the faith Wink
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« Reply #135873 on: April 27, 2019, 12:58:23 AM »

Drew Lock to the Broncos.
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« Reply #135874 on: April 27, 2019, 03:08:05 AM »

Drew Lock to the Broncos.

Very nice tipping. Thank you.
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« Reply #135875 on: April 27, 2019, 07:57:15 AM »

It is a bit late as practice has just started but I do fancy Carlos Sainz at a very big price for this week's Azerbajan Grand Prix.

The last couple of Grand Priix there have had a high attrition rate, and McLaren showed a bit of pace in Bahrain and Australia; and Carlos Sainz has run here well here before (as did the Renaults).

Obviously needs a lot of carnage in amongst the big boys, but he is 1500/1 and bookies are offering a fifth first 3 again.  You get 300/1 the podium, which is where the value is.  He clearly isn't finishing here every week, but 1 time in 300 is probably too big.  You could probably apply this logic to a few others outside the first 4 in the betting, as place terms are going to be very good on races that can have a lot of retirements like this. 

You'll likely have to wait until the end of practice to get a price again, and 1500/1 may not be available, though it was available in a few spots this morning.   If the car runs like a bag of spanners in first practice then you need to reconsider!

The price is back up as practice is abandoned.   When I said attritional I didn't expect that.

You could extend the logic to Hulkenberg and Ricciardo who are both 750/1, or 150/1 first 3.   

7th in 2nd practice so now into 1000/1.  Hills still 1500/1.   Go on Teeks, empty the account. 

good work by Lando Norris too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LandoNorris/status/1121805953568071680


In Doobs we trust, though "emptying the account" was more than I could muster the courage to do.


Carlos Sainz @1500/1
Sat 11:00 - Azerbaijan F1 Grand Prix - Race Winner - Race Winner
Open
Stake: £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
To return:£18020.00
 


Honestly, I would have no idea how to price this up, but you can't argue with a return like that. Fingers crossed! However, I would have gone Toro Rosso (Kvyat/Albon) over McLaren.

I really, really want to recommend Leclerc to win this one, but my confidence is completely shaken after the first three races. 9/4 is overpriced though, despite how results have gone so far this season, on this circuit Ferrari should really be the favourites. Their car has a built-in straight line speed advantage, and therefore they're the only team going for a higher downforce set-up this weekend, so they should have strong cornering pace also.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/azerbaijan-grand-prix/winner
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« Reply #135876 on: April 27, 2019, 08:41:56 AM »

Nice tal
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« Reply #135877 on: April 27, 2019, 09:14:42 AM »

I have found the tipster for the Luton bet, it was placed in November, a nirvana recommend.

The next bet on the Spready was for Wolves to finish bottom half, which was down to FF.  

Smiley

Honestly don't think Nirvana has contributed anything positive to any thread, let alone this one. Stdd middle-aged gammon.

Need one more Liverpool goal to cop that 28-1 shot. Epic sweats there.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 09:16:22 AM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #135878 on: April 27, 2019, 09:20:18 AM »

It is a bit late as practice has just started but I do fancy Carlos Sainz at a very big price for this week's Azerbajan Grand Prix.

The last couple of Grand Priix there have had a high attrition rate, and McLaren showed a bit of pace in Bahrain and Australia; and Carlos Sainz has run here well here before (as did the Renaults).

Obviously needs a lot of carnage in amongst the big boys, but he is 1500/1 and bookies are offering a fifth first 3 again.  You get 300/1 the podium, which is where the value is.  He clearly isn't finishing here every week, but 1 time in 300 is probably too big.  You could probably apply this logic to a few others outside the first 4 in the betting, as place terms are going to be very good on races that can have a lot of retirements like this.  

You'll likely have to wait until the end of practice to get a price again, and 1500/1 may not be available, though it was available in a few spots this morning.   If the car runs like a bag of spanners in first practice then you need to reconsider!

The price is back up as practice is abandoned.   When I said attritional I didn't expect that.

You could extend the logic to Hulkenberg and Ricciardo who are both 750/1, or 150/1 first 3.  

7th in 2nd practice so now into 1000/1.  Hills still 1500/1.   Go on Teeks, empty the account.  

good work by Lando Norris too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LandoNorris/status/1121805953568071680


In Doobs we trust, though "emptying the account" was more than I could muster the courage to do.


Carlos Sainz @1500/1
Sat 11:00 - Azerbaijan F1 Grand Prix - Race Winner - Race Winner
Open
Stake: £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
To return:£18020.00
 


Honestly, I would have no idea how to price this up, but you can't argue with a return like that. Fingers crossed! However, I would have gone Toro Rosso (Kvyat/Albon) over McLaren.

I really, really want to recommend Leclerc to win this one, but my confidence is completely shaken after the first three races. 9/4 is overpriced though, despite how results have gone so far this season, on this circuit Ferrari should really be the favourites. Their car has a built-in straight line speed advantage, and therefore they're the only team going for a higher downforce set-up this weekend, so they should have strong cornering pace also.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/azerbaijan-grand-prix/winner

I wouldn't put you off the Torro Rosso drivers.   The theory is the same. Vestappen has a tendency to go for ambitious moves, so could easily hit another top 5 driver.  Attrition is high even without that.  The bets are helped by Gasly starting from the pit lane, though that is just good luck.  Then there are almost certain to be safety cars to shake it up.

If you can get the driver that starts 6th or 7th on the grid, you should have a much better chance of hitting 3rd than the place terms suggest.   I think the Torro Rosso drivers are even bigger, so would happily back them too if I could get on.

I do like Leclerc a lot, but worry about team orders.  I don't think they should be favouring Vettel, but that is the direction they are taking and he is the bigger price.  
« Last Edit: April 27, 2019, 09:47:32 AM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #135879 on: April 27, 2019, 10:18:28 AM »

I do like Leclerc a lot, but worry about team orders.  I don't think they should be favouring Vettel, but that is the direction they are taking and he is the bigger price.  

The media have made a lot about this, but it's not something that needs any major consideration. Ferrari favoured Sebastian over Charles at the last race, but that was a specific circumstance where Sebastian was the faster driver. If anything, Ferrari left it too late and should have done it earlier. This does not set a precedent for the season, and I see Charles with a really strong chance of being the higher driver this year.
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« Reply #135880 on: April 27, 2019, 10:27:26 AM »

Wehrlein to win the Paris ePrix at 12/1 with 365 and Ladbrokes is a bet for me. He has shown glimpses of pace all season, but hasn't quite brought it all together over an entire event yet. However, he starts in qualifying group three today which increases his chances of a strong grid spot. This price should be more like 8/1 or 9/1. I'm going EW by the way.

https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B126/C20643390/D1/E41472246/F2/
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/motor-sports/formula-e/formula-e-championship/paris-e-prix/228448653/
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« Reply #135881 on: April 27, 2019, 11:18:14 AM »

Sky are going a fifth first 5 in the bet365 at Sandown.   I know I get grumpy at them but they are 9/1 The Young Master for those that can.  I'd picked this out and betting emporium did too.
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« Reply #135882 on: April 27, 2019, 11:43:42 AM »

Wehrlein to win the Paris ePrix at 12/1 with 365 and Ladbrokes is a bet for me. He has shown glimpses of pace all season, but hasn't quite brought it all together over an entire event yet. However, he starts in qualifying group three today which increases his chances of a strong grid spot. This price should be more like 8/1 or 9/1. I'm going EW by the way.

https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B126/C20643390/D1/E41472246/F2/
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/motor-sports/formula-e/formula-e-championship/paris-e-prix/228448653/

Well that logic worked out well, Wehrlein on pole.
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« Reply #135883 on: April 27, 2019, 11:56:41 AM »

looks like Torro Rosso are a bit quicker than McLaren here.   Got a cheeky £4 each way on Kvyat, but Albon looking good.
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« Reply #135884 on: April 27, 2019, 11:59:16 AM »

Wehrlein to win the Paris ePrix at 12/1 with 365 and Ladbrokes is a bet for me. He has shown glimpses of pace all season, but hasn't quite brought it all together over an entire event yet. However, he starts in qualifying group three today which increases his chances of a strong grid spot. This price should be more like 8/1 or 9/1. I'm going EW by the way.

https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B126/C20643390/D1/E41472246/F2/
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/motor-sports/formula-e/formula-e-championship/paris-e-prix/228448653/

Well that logic worked out well, Wehrlein on pole.

Congrats Peter.  Hope you got a few quid on.   

And congrats Tal on the NFL picks.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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