Tips for Tikay

[edgascoigne]

Does anybody know what time the 4ball pairings will be announced perchance?

I believe they said around 10.40pm, not 100% though.

That's great, thanks. So near enough at the same time as the 4somes? Would one expect a similar timed announcement for Saturday's pairings also, albeit a day later?

I'm sorry but I mis-understood the question.

The afternoon 4-ball pairings are not usually confirmed until the morning 4-somes are almost complete, or vice-versa depending on which order they play them.

It is only the morning session's pairings which are announced the night before.

Ah. Thank you.

I'll be sure to wear my punctual and organised socks beneath my punting boots.

[tikay]

If Malinga gets wickets in the Super Over, do they count for our wager?

[JaffaCake]

Captivated by Lord Channing's wittering, just like in real life. Thanks for taking the time to put all this into words.

Can I ask, how do u know 88% of the tickets were for 49ers while the line was still going down? And where do Cantor and Hills say that a 49ers win would be terrible while the market seems to be moving the oppo way? Presumably these form part of your market reading....

hi Jeff,

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Thanks Phil, gonna do some exploring in readiness for the NBA season, not long now teeks!

[TightEnd]

If Malinga gets wickets in the Super Over, do they count for our wager?

good question

Would assume so but one for the terms and conditions

[tikay]

Firing Squad delayed.

[TightEnd]

In that it makes it more likely that SL go through to the final 4, that is a good result for the thread

all hail Dilshan's boundary catch under pressure there

[DungBeetle]

Malinga is a class act.  Only 6 off the superover for NZ.

[TightEnd]

WI win toss and bat

If Chris Gayle could roll up a pitch and carry it around with him, this would be it

(cue the bok)

[JaffaCake]

Read in the paper that Eng to score under 100 is 33/1. I've watched England for too many years to think that only happens once in 20 times, but can't find it on Will Hill?

[edgascoigne]

Tikay - PM sent.

[tikay]

Captivated by Lord Channing's wittering, just like in real life. Thanks for taking the time to put all this into words.

Can I ask, how do u know 88% of the tickets were for 49ers while the line was still going down? And where do Cantor and Hills say that a 49ers win would be terrible while the market seems to be moving the oppo way? Presumably these form part of your market reading....

hi Jeff,

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

Thanks Phil, gonna do some exploring in readiness for the NBA season, not long now teeks!

Thank for the notice Jeff, I'm seeking some additional lines of credit as we speak.

In all seriousness, I hope we can do something with NBA this time, the Elders tell me it IS a market that can be exploited, & it must bear some similiarity (in volume & stats, split hairs, wagons & ice creams) to NFL.

I think we were a bit "tip" or "hunch-based" last Season, with a poor understanding of "value", but I'd like to think we have learned a bit since then.

[tikay]

Tikay - PM sent.

TYVM, much appreciated.

[JaffaCake]

I've looked through all your NBA bets as it annoys me that basketball is always wheeled out as the example of how things can go wrong. Some of them were defo hunch based, while undoubtedly a few value bets fell short through bad luck. I guarentee we'll improve this season. Btw, u threatened that I had to play u hu PLO8 if my last basketball bet came up short. It was Brazil to medal in the Limpix and while it was an absolutely great bet, somehow they came up short, beating world champs Spain who ended up getting silver and taking the tough route through the schedule. Anyway...bring it on. Maybe someone will price it up. I don't really play PLO8 btw

[tikay]

I've looked through all your NBA bets as it annoys me that basketball is always wheeled out as the example of how things can go wrong. Some of them were defo hunch based, while undoubtedly a few value bets fell short through bad luck. I guarentee we'll improve this season. Btw, u threatened that I had to play u hu PLO8 if my last basketball bet came up short. It was Brazil to medal in the Limpix and while it was an absolutely great bet, somehow they came up short, beating world champs Spain who ended up getting silver and taking the tough route through the schedule. Anyway...bring it on. Maybe someone will price it up. I don't really play PLO8 btw

Well it irks me too (I would stop short of that corrosive emotion "annoyed") that we somehow, betting small stakes, done so much money on it. But we did, & I think it behoves anyone who strives to do better, or improve, to see where the leak was, & try to fix it.

I agree, we got unlucky here & there in crucial spots, but I think the real issue is that we were hunch-based, & we did not understand value as much as we do now.

Replace "we" with "I" if you like, as the responsibility was mine, & I have not blamed anyone. But I don't plan to chuck another £600 at it unless we can do better, & learn from our mistakes.

I think the most important one, value apart, was punting for the sake of punting. If there are 50 games every week, then it's unlikely we should be punting more than half a handful of them. We don't want to be like the ice cream wagon chap who queues up outside Ladbrokes on a Saturday morning because he feels he MUST have a bet, as it is Saturday, or whatever.   

Heads Up PLO8? You'd CRUSH me! But I'll donate, of course I will. I'd rather do it "Live" though. The Vic one night, maybe?

[JaffaCake]

I think if u look at the number of NBA games 30 teams each playing 82 games I don't think over punting was the problem, possibly even the opposite to let variance even out.

There's also the problem that any late changes are missed (I remember a San Antonio game we punted where I reversed my bet and bet big the other way when it became clear they'd rested all the star players - something that's just about never done in basketball but happened last year because of the lockout-affected season meaning the games were being crammed in - but because it was like 2am Fred was sleeping) which can't be avoided in games that often tip-off after midnight. The plus point to that is that the UK-based bookies are often tucked up with Fred and not quick to change their prices.

Defo up for live, then we can make it a PLO/PLO8 mix to give me a chance. I'm playing all of the Vic's upcoming PLO festival including giving the hi lo a spin so pick one of those and we can pop up early and have a heads-up warm-up