Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Good morning.

The Michael Van Gerwen darts bet.

I'm afraid I kept missing that, even though I seem to recall that is was bumped several times.

He is now 50/1 with Betfred.

1) Is this still a worthwhile bet?

2) Win, or each way? EW terms are "half, 1,2".

I have taken a tenner for myself, & if we agree it is still a bet, I'll transfer it across to the Fred account today.

Also, do we know who the original author of the proposal was, as I need to assign it to someone if we take it?

BUMPETY BUMP

I Posted the above last SUNDAY.

It refers to the upcoming PDC Championships, NOT the current thingie in Dublin.

His current best price is 40/1.

I "reserved" a tenner at 50/1, but asked...

Should it be win or EW?

Who was the original owner of the bet? (We now know it was BAZZABOY)

I have already placed the bet on my own account, but will tx it across if we agree it is a Fred bet.

Can't do any harm shipping it across to Fred can it?

I can only hope the draw in the Worlds opens up much like it has here.

Win, or EW?

It is half odds, 1 & 2, for EW.

[horseplayer]

thoughts on Serbia/Belgium game tonight? Think its gona be one of the most interesting games tonight for a neutral and I quite fancy Belgium @ 79/40 on pinnacle (19/10 on betfair i think) They have a full strength side to travel to Serbia whereas without Vidic I think the Serbians are going to be a very weakened side. Also alot of the Belgians are playing well for their club sides. (Hazard being the obvious one) and I expect him to run the show tonight. Think they are going to have enough to take out the Serbs tonight.

Edit : The draw @ 9/4 could also be decent value. Peoples thoughts?

looks tricky to call serbia are very very solid especially at home and have got results without vidic before

[tikay]

thoughts on Serbia/Belgium game tonight? Think its gona be one of the most interesting games tonight for a neutral and I quite fancy Belgium @ 79/40 on pinnacle (19/10 on betfair i think) They have a full strength side to travel to Serbia whereas without Vidic I think the Serbians are going to be a very weakened side. Also alot of the Belgians are playing well for their club sides. (Hazard being the obvious one) and I expect him to run the show tonight. Think they are going to have enough to take out the Serbs tonight.

Edit : The draw @ 9/4 could also be decent value. Peoples thoughts?

Quite like that Tom, nice price, but I'd need some further views.

Hoperfully, see you over the weekend in Nottingham.

[doubleup]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2  


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are

0.30   <6 0.43   6 to 8 0.55   7+ 0.27   9+

So unless there is a "total collapse" factor of some kind, the odds wouldn't seem that great.

[tikay]

Love Tighty's typically in-depth analysis.

I just find it very hard to imagine England racking up a big score.

Someone posted earlier this week about possible hat tricks, too, but I can't recall who.

[Bazzaboy]

Good morning.

The Michael Van Gerwen darts bet.

I'm afraid I kept missing that, even though I seem to recall that is was bumped several times.

He is now 50/1 with Betfred.

1) Is this still a worthwhile bet?

2) Win, or each way? EW terms are "half, 1,2".

I have taken a tenner for myself, & if we agree it is still a bet, I'll transfer it across to the Fred account today.

Also, do we know who the original author of the proposal was, as I need to assign it to someone if we take it?

BUMPETY BUMP

I Posted the above last SUNDAY.

It refers to the upcoming PDC Championships, NOT the current thingie in Dublin.

His current best price is 40/1.

I "reserved" a tenner at 50/1, but asked...

Should it be win or EW?

Who was the original owner of the bet? (We now know it was BAZZABOY)

I have already placed the bet on my own account, but will tx it across if we agree it is a Fred bet.

Can't do any harm shipping it across to Fred can it?

I can only hope the draw in the Worlds opens up much like it has here.

Win, or EW?

It is half odds, 1 & 2, for EW.

I've backed him win only. It is half for first 2 EW.

[TightEnd]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2 


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are

0.30   <6 0.43   6 to 8 0.55   7+ 0.27   9+

So unless there is a "total collapse" factor of some kind, the odds wouldn't seem that great.

thank you

based on this 8/11 7+ IS a fair price, is it not?

[DungBeetle]

Away from the glamour of the Internationals, Preston must surely be backed at home to MKD at 9/5 on Sunday.

MKD are ranked very highly in this division, and probably rightly so, but their away results are hit and miss XWWLX.

Preston have had some really poor recent results on the road (losing at Walsall and Oldham recently) but at home they have a much better win rate XWLWW.  Westley has built an entirely new team there, and there have been teething problems bedding them in, but despite that they sit just outside the play offs and will see this as a good opportunity to make a statement of intent in front of the cameras.

This game reminds me of the last time they faced a fancied team at home in Swindon, and seemed to really go out to make a point winning 4-1.

I respect MKD for sure, but I expected this to be a take your pick match, and the 9/5 seems way too big for me on the home win.  This price is with B365, Blue , 888 and Boyle.  Other bookies have them as low as 13/8 which is more what I was expecting.

Dung

[Tal]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2 


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

Don't pretend you can't name them!

Horseplayer will be in if you don't hurry up

As for the bet, we won't score more than six IMO and even that is a push. We don't create enough chances to start off with. Plus we will get a couple up and be content, maybe nicking a few against tired legs in the last 10-15mins.

The fact that the opposition is awful won't change that the players will have an International Friendly (for the love of God, don't get myself injured or the gaffer won't be happy on Monday) mentality once the result is in the bag.

[TightEnd]

OK, onto the next non-elite piece of research ;-)

[doubleup]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2 


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are

0.30   <6 0.43   6 to 8 0.55   7+ 0.27   9+

So unless there is a "total collapse" factor of some kind, the odds wouldn't seem that great.

thank you

based on this 8/11 7+ IS a fair price, is it not?

yes based on the mean of 7

[tikay]

Good morning.

The Michael Van Gerwen darts bet.

I'm afraid I kept missing that, even though I seem to recall that is was bumped several times.

He is now 50/1 with Betfred.

1) Is this still a worthwhile bet?

2) Win, or each way? EW terms are "half, 1,2".

I have taken a tenner for myself, & if we agree it is still a bet, I'll transfer it across to the Fred account today.

Also, do we know who the original author of the proposal was, as I need to assign it to someone if we take it?

BUMPETY BUMP

I Posted the above last SUNDAY.

It refers to the upcoming PDC Championships, NOT the current thingie in Dublin.

His current best price is 40/1.

I "reserved" a tenner at 50/1, but asked...

Should it be win or EW?

Who was the original owner of the bet? (We now know it was BAZZABOY)

I have already placed the bet on my own account, but will tx it across if we agree it is a Fred bet.

Can't do any harm shipping it across to Fred can it?

I can only hope the draw in the Worlds opens up much like it has here.

Win, or EW?

It is half odds, 1 & 2, for EW.

I've backed him win only. It is half for first 2 EW.

OK, sorted at last!

Thanks Bazza.

Fred has £10 WIN @ 50/1 with Betfred for the PDC Championships.

The Betslip below is Each Way, as that was the bet I placed on 7th October, but I'm only transferring the win part across to Fred.

ON


 10/7/2012 8:13:49 AM  49/
49  W:10.00 S:10.00  Single  PDC World Championship 2013/Outright Betting  Van Gerwen, Michael   50/1  Open  O  £20.00  £0.00 

[tikay]

OK, onto the next non-elite piece of research ;-)

You are Elite here, even if you got relegated on that other thread......

[typhoon13]

Tikay

Please tell us what you did after leaving the studios last night?

I think Neil led you astray!!

[horseplayer]

here we go

ENGLAND V SAN MARINO

goal to be scored 46th to 6oth minute 8-13 william hill suggest £50


in the last 21 games competitive away from home san marino have conceded in 16 of those games in this period

the true price based on that is shorter than 1-3