Tips for Tikay

[kukushkin88]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.

He isn't saying to rule it out, but he is saying that matches are priced accordingly on recent results, positions, etc.

Therefore backing a bet up with the above is perhaps ridic, as price probably suggests/knows it.

Previous head to heads count for virtually nothing as the sample size is always tiny. League positions can arguably be used for some sort of guidance to work out who will win any given game but this really isn't what you are trying to do, try to forget completely about trying to work out who will win and the 'what is value' puzzle might become a little clearer. To make money you need information the price hasn't accounted for and the league position will never be this piece of information. League positions are often very misleading too, there is a huge element of luck in sport and teams regularly do not merit their league position (even their position at the end of a given season).

[AndrewT]

I have a question for people who have worked in the industry.  On the season points spreads I find that the bookies generally seem less accurate on pricing up the lower division as opposed to Premier and Championship.  Is this because they just do the lower leagues to provide a complete service for the marketing, and thus know they will have less volume and thus spend less time on it?  Or is it purely because due to lower differences between teams it is harder to predict.

Is this the same for the compilers doing a Saturday coupon? 

The more info which is in the public domain, the less scope there is for variation from a collective 'correct' price.

Consider two teams, one Premier League and one League Two, that have had poor results recently, but have actually played really well in those games and been unlucky not to win (refereeng decisions going against them, oppo keeper playing a blinder etc). This may well be factored into the price for the Prem team in their next game, as certainly compilers, and many punters, will be aware of this. However, it's less likely for the League Two team - both compiler and punter will look at LDDLDL for last six games and rate accordingly.

[AndrewT]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.

He isn't saying to rule it out, but he is saying that matches are priced accordingly on recent results, positions, etc.

Therefore backing a bet up with the above is perhaps ridic, as price probably suggests/knows it.

Previous head to heads count for virtually nothing as the sample size is always tiny. League positions can arguably be used for some sort of guidance to work out who will win any given game but this really isn't what you are trying to do, try to forget completely about trying to work out who will win and the 'what is value' puzzle might become a little clearer. To make money you need information the price hasn't accounted for and the league position will never be this piece of information. League positions are often very misleading too, there is a huge element of luck in sport and teams regularly do not merit their league position (even their position at the end of a given season).

Something which I actually saw on Twitter yesterday from Andy Ward (QPR fan - Keith, Neil and others will know him) which is that West Ham are doing well and QPR are doing badly. But West Ham haven't played a team higher than 8th in the table so far, whereas QPR have played 6 of the top 7 in the past six games, and only one team who are in the bottom half of the table. This won't be taken into account by most people - if fixture lists had been swapped round it might be West Ham propping up the table, yet WH and QPR will be priced up very differently right now.

[Dubai]

Obviously prices can be wrong  on betfair but on a market like "Lionel Messi to score" they are never going to be THAT wrong, so you literally can assume its priced correctly and work from there. Each way first goalscorer was created on the basis that the mean goals in a game is somewhere between 2.5 and 3 and both sides realistically can score- once teams are 1/10 etc and the expected goals in the game is closer to 5 than 3 then it's a bet no bookie wants to lay because the each way terms are just so heavily in the punters favour. And with big games there's no reason to suggest betfair are wrong, let alone 15% wrong- so can fire away safe in the knowledge that it's free money

[redarmi]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did?  Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

Your opinion on Messi may have been correct and he may have been a lay at 1.33 to score anytime.  Dubai's bet at 1.67 was definitely value but the prices are so far apart it is entirely possible that you were both correct because the game is all about prices.  In this thread there are two posts that every punter must read and understand if they are to win.  One was Bad Beats rules for punting and the other is the post Bobby just wrote.  I am not sure how many people understand just how good some of these posts are and just how much they can learn.  Some of this stuff is not available anywhere else online and is better than almost any book I have read on sports betting (and believe me I have read them all).

[redarmi]

I have a question for people who have worked in the industry.  On the season points spreads I find that the bookies generally seem less accurate on pricing up the lower division as opposed to Premier and Championship.  Is this because they just do the lower leagues to provide a complete service for the marketing, and thus know they will have less volume and thus spend less time on it?  Or is it purely because due to lower differences between teams it is harder to predict.

Is this the same for the compilers doing a Saturday coupon?  

I think this is just down to more parity.  I could predict with fairly high accuracy the top 4 in the prem, top 2 in Spain etc but in league 2 it is much harder so variance from the mean will be much higher and standard error and deviations will be naturally higher.  Most firms have dedicated lower league odds compilers these days and they are normally very good.

[The Camel]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did? Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

The bolded bit is just so ridiculous.

Does Lionel Messi wake up on a matchday when he's playing Arsenal, Chelsea or Celtic and think "oooh, I am facing Gary Cahill / Carl Jenkinson / Bodo fucking Balde (delete as appropriate) tonight, they are just so much better than German, Italian, Dutch defenders I really don't fancy it tonight"?

The price he is to score is purely a derivative of the amount of goals Barca are expected to score in the match.

Last night Barca were 1/10 to win. And expected to score around 4 goals. If they are expected to score 4 goals, Messi to score sounds like a 1/3 shot to me.

This thread, used to be required reading, there was so much good stuff.

Now, possibly because it's a victim of it's own success or possibly because it's on a losing run and the bickering has started, I hardly ever look here.

You won your bet, well done, buy yourself a lollipop.

But it wasn't value unless 1/10 Barca to beat Celtic was a great lay.

[bobby1]

As I saw it, the purpose of the thread is to spot value bets. If none can be found, then there is no bet.

Those suggesting bets don't have to offer a tip on every game/set of fixtures - there needs to be a compelling reason why you are right and the bookie is wrong. Something you have spotted that they (or the market) have neglected.

+1 to this really.

(this is also kind of a reply to Ace too) I think there are two ways people approach betting at a decent level. The first is  be very very selective, the other is what I think Redarmi for example does when he says he could easily have 100 bets a weekend when he is getting an edge probably varying from slight to big and therefore staking accordingly too.

If you are going for the first approach which is what the thread started off as then the bets should be where a significant edge is found and becomes a 'thread bet' standard bet. There your sample size is going to be small but you should be getting a decent sized edge.

If you are more the second approach then you will be having so many bets and almost none of them are going to be thread bets because you are just working to small angles but running your money thru all of them. So it would be impossible for Red to put up every bet he has in a month but he will make money.

What the thread seems to have evolved into tho is a kind of hybrid of those two, there are lots of bets put up but they may not in reality be thread bet standard but they are being placed as thread bets. That's where I think the footy stuff is at the moment. I think there was a Saturday recently when thread had around 10 footy bets on British football, if you are using approach one and finding ten genuine thread bet standard bets in 60 odd fixtures then its possible your parameters have got too wide/lax.

If you are using the second approach you might have found 20 slight edges one day and just happy be to let your'roll run thru them all and see what small % profit comes out at the other side. If you are doing that on all sports/events each day of the month then you would find it difficult to have many thread standard bets. When they do come along tho the staking should be much bigger than the day to day small edge stuff.

I have almost stopped putting bets up on here and mainly for 2 reasons, the prices were getting smashed up and that then led to reason 2 which is what happened to a lot of posters here with VC, accounts with similar business getting closed. AMDV made a point all the way back in the thread about those being reason why he would never put bets up on here and at the time I disagreed with him but maybe I totally misjudged how many people would follow the bets put up. It makes it -ev for example for me to put up an NFL player perf now when some of those I did put up were being cut within minutes after posting, coz all I am doing is highlighting an area for others that I should be keeping to myself if I want some long term access to them. I am also potentially getting red flagged by the firms if I am first on if they start to look deeper into who is betting them.

[mondatoo]

I had no opinion on Messis price. Just if its 1.33 to lay on bf and you can take 1.67 and only lose 3.5% on the win part, its just a must bet. No need to look into it, the maths just dictates that you win everytime you place the bet.

I assume these bets are classed as dirty e/w bets similarly to backing e/w at similar prices in Horse Racing ?

If so then how long will it be before you'd start seeing accounts getting closed ?

After a couple of "dirty" e/w bets during the Cheltenham Festival BET365 would only let me have £4.20 on Long Run to WIN the Gold Cup, I was pretty surprised at that.

[bobby1]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.

He isn't saying to rule it out, but he is saying that matches are priced accordingly on recent results, positions, etc.

Therefore backing a bet up with the above is perhaps ridic, as price probably suggests/knows it.

Previous head to heads count for virtually nothing as the sample size is always tiny. League positions can arguably be used for some sort of guidance to work out who will win any given game but this really isn't what you are trying to do, try to forget completely about trying to work out who will win and the 'what is value' puzzle might become a little clearer. To make money you need information the price hasn't accounted for and the league position will never be this piece of information. League positions are often very misleading too, there is a huge element of luck in sport and teams regularly do not merit their league position (even their position at the end of a given season).

Something which I actually saw on Twitter yesterday from Andy Ward (QPR fan - Keith, Neil and others will know him) which is that West Ham are doing well and QPR are doing badly. But West Ham haven't played a team higher than 8th in the table so far, whereas QPR have played 6 of the top 7 in the past six games, and only one team who are in the bottom half of the table. This won't be taken into account by most people - if fixture lists had been swapped round it might be West Ham propping up the table, yet WH and QPR will be priced up very differently right now.

basically that is it in a nutshell, take Shrewsbury too who had a similar run of fixtures early in the season. For both those teams the league table was probably/is telling lies.

[The Camel]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did? Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

The bolded bit is just so ridiculous.

Does Lionel Messi wake up on a matchday when he's playing Arsenal, Chelsea or Celtic and think "oooh, I am facing Gary Cahill / Carl Jenkinson / Bodo fucking Balde (delete as appropriate) tonight, they are just so much better than German, Italian, Dutch defenders I really don't fancy it tonight"?

The price he is to score is purely a derivative of the amount of goals Barca are expected to score in the match.

Last night Barca were 1/10 to win. And expected to score around 4 goals. If they are expected to score 4 goals, Messi to score sounds like a 1/3 shot to me.

This thread, used to be required reading, there was so much good stuff.

Now, possibly because it's a victim of it's own success or possibly because it's on a losing run and the bickering has started, I hardly ever look here.

You won your bet, well done, buy yourself a lollipop.

But it wasn't value unless 1/10 Barca to beat Celtic was a great lay.

Take a look at the last 500 goals Barca have scored in matches where Messi has played.

Randomly pick a sequence of 4 goals. (goals 224-227 for example)

Would you lay 1.67 Messi scored one of those 4 goals?

[tikay]

This is exactly what we, or at least I, needed.

Keep it coming.

[horseplayer]

bobby raised another good point

i wasnt aware (probably still not) just how many people follow bets on this thread

a fairly niche bet i put up a little while ago has rendered a previously decent account useless i can only imagine for whatever reason a fairly large amount of people followed said bet.

Is there a way of making the thread "members" only? (no idea if this is possible or wanted just putting it out there)

Not at all trying to make it a secret club but it is easy enough to register to this forum

[horseplayer]

for example as of about now there are 8 guests viewing this thread which i would guess is one of the quieter times of a forum?

[bobby1]

I had no opinion on Messis price. Just if its 1.33 to lay on bf and you can take 1.67 and only lose 3.5% on the win part, its just a must bet. No need to look into it, the maths just dictates that you win everytime you place the bet.

If the thread could only have one bet a day for the rest of eternity and it was this each day then it would make plenty. It is a good example of Dubai knowing the mechanics of the bet and knowing it is wrong, esp in the place parts when Barca are 1/10.

If the thread could have only one bet a day for the rest of eternity and it was the place only part of this bet at 1.67 when Barca are 1/10 then Tikay would have retired (again) by now and be rubbing his head between tiddies all day.