Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Vlaar made all the difference to the set piece defending there

"After you sir" "free header?" "don't mind if I do" "why thanks" "no problem"

[Tal]

It was identical to two of the goals from the first leg. Incredible.

[kinboshi]

Sheeeeeeeeeeeepppppeeeeeeeeet

1-1

That's Numberwang!

[TightEnd]

This match tonight . Rare orange ball sighting

Name the teams, without checking the fixtures.....go on

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

Aldershot v someone?

[TightEnd]

Aldershot v someone?

Yes, Aldershot at home in red/blue

[KarmaDope]

Aldershot vs Northampton.

I'd know the Northampton logo anywhere.

[kinboshi]

Aldershot v Cape Verde in the African Cup of Nations?

[TightEnd]

Aldershot vs Northampton.

I'd know the Northampton logo anywhere.

correct

great away kit.

[Tal]

Shared with Highlanders RUFC

[Tal]

The claret and blue self-destruct button has been well and truly clobbered again.

They're all over the place.

[Bad Beat]

 Just to make a quick point about greening-up as it seems to be something that most people can't seem to get their heads around.

 The Rylan in CBB market is a much "thinner" market than most - there is much less liquidity and there is no established market away from Betfair to refer to. Basically the price that is there now is the opinion of just a few people. Many people who have played on CBB will not be looking too intently every day and many will have just bet with the intention of letting it run throughout.

 In this kind of situation it is very possible that the new current price for Rylan could be wrong. If Chompy thinks 1/2 represents about the correct price then I would have no problem with greening - it cuts variance and frees up money. If he thinks it should be nearer to evs than 1/4 then we should probably go the other way nd take an active position against (it doesn't seem that this is the case but I'm making the point that we should do that if Chompy feels he has new information that the market has not considered enough or doesn't know about).

 In the Super Bowl at the time of Keith's first post we were facing a stale but established market at a time of the season when liquidity would have been light (people place bets at the start of the season and generally do little to change their position until their original teams are eliminated or as the winning post gets closer - the play-offs are approaching). I think that market was one which the bookies had taken their eye off and we had value.

 There is zero chance that the market has taken it's eye off the current Super Bowl market, there are only two teams left and it's the mot hyped US sports event of every year.

 That is not to say the price can never be wrong though...

[chelseaboy]

i've gone with the finn bet too tikay, very small mind, but still, let's do a win

Finn top bowl-scorer? Seems a solid punt

I agree... Top Bowl-Scorer!!! sounds like someone in the know

[Bad Beat]

...several hundred pages ago I spoke about the true line, which is designed to mean that the prices reflect with 100% accuracy the chances of each outcome and against that how bookies can put up a line that splits the action. This would be a line which causes half of the volume of money to be bet one way and half the other.

 American Football is a great sport to see examples of this in operation and to get value from them.

 The money in US football betting comes broadly from two groups:

 The pros - syndicates of sports bettors, big name gamblers like Billy Walters and all the people who follow their action.

 The public - all the wagons and ice-creams.

 On an average day of NBA the volume of action given to the books by the pros may be 65% of the handle. The public may chip in with the other 35%. The books attempt to set lines that split the result.

 On a day in the play-offs the volume may flip. Lots more public money floods the market and teams like Oklahoma, Miami and Chicago get all the action while Indiana and Orlando do not. The bookies react by shading their lines. They lean towards splitting the action.

 The pros have a lot more bets at this time. They know the bookies have put up the "wrong" price. Teams that would have been 2.5 "normally" go off 4.5. The public bet the 4.5 favourites and the bookies grimace as they take the 4.5 dog action from the pros. They are cheering for the pros to win and they have 11/10 their money. There only problem now is that the public will all go broke if they bet like this and they'll be left with just pros (unless the public defy the odds and win anyway despite the "bad" prices).

 How does this effect the Super Bowl and why the fuck have I brought it up?

[Tal]