Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Should qualify that by saying I imagine Liverpool will have already guaranteed a Europa spot or be out of contention (if there is just one spot on offer).

Loving the cricket stat, non-Bearders.

There may be more than one spot.

Currently, it is Arsenal 5th on 47pts, Everton 6th on 45pts, Liverpool 7th on 42pts and Swansea 8th on 40pts.

Looking at the fixtures, Arsenal have a shockingly easy run in - their only big game being Man Utd at home but they do have to go to Swansea & West Brom and entertain Everton. They also have Reading/QPR/Wigan/Newcastle/Norwich and Fulham - so I guess they will get 21pts.

Everton have to go to Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea AND Liverpool. They also host Man City. At best I can see them getting 15-17pts as they also have to play Stoke and West Ham, AND they are still in the FA Cup.

Liverpool have to play Everton, Chelsea and Tottenham. Even as a Liverpool fan, I can see us getting 3 pts max here. The rest of our games are against bottom 10 teams (Newcastle, Villa, Reading, QPR, West Ham, and Southampton), oh and Fulham who are 10th. I honestly think we can get 24pts here.

Swansea are 8th but they have already qualified for Europe.

Assuming Manchester United win the FA Cup (and I think the winner comes from the Chelsea/Utd match) then 6th will get a spot in Europe. This could be the scene for the biggest Merseyside Derby on 4th May in quite some time.

As this is TfT, if anyone can find a market for Liverpool to qualify for Europe - go for it.

Yes, I did mean Liverpool either won't be in contention for the place (the more so if there is only one spot) or it'll be locked up already (likely if the derby is won and they've picked up big points elsewhere).

Arsenal's run in is probably the best of anyone's in the league on paper. Spurs still have Liverpool, Everton, Citeh and Chelsea to play, albeit with a final run of Southampton, Stoke and Sunderland.

Can't find a "to qualify for Europe" market.

I must admit, however, I do like the Tricast of Man United, Man City and Chelsea at Evens. For all my one-eyedness, I don't see spurs breaking the top 3 here. Chelsea should do enough and City will finish above the other 18 teams.

Can't forward it as a recommend for Fred, as I'm assuming the market is about right.

Might have a bet myself as a saver for Spurs not doing as well as I hope (bit like last year's Champions League bet on Chelsea on pens...)

[vegaslover]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills.  To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective.  Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets.  I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil.  Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't.  By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6.  Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse?  Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet.  Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.

Fair point - although we have a lot more than a grand on

The current betfair market is of course 'anti-post' yet Hills are NRNB, Hurricane will be a lot shorter in the 'day-of-race' market.

For the record, although I fully understand the view and arguments against arbers, we are an extremely well organised team and offer an excellent service to clients.

What I don't quite get is the ignorance of some pretty well thought of 'gamblers/punters' (two completely different sets of people imo) as to what today's arbing is about.

The views are quite prehistoric.  We operate in a market place and have an opinion on where markets may or may not go.  The complaint of "arbers spoiling it for the good guys' is not only dated, its pretty weak and coming from people who are surprisingly clueless about where professional arbers are today.

tbf people that can judge which way markets are going to move get millions in some companies, people that do it with sports events get called filthy.

I completely agree with your last line btw tho pure arbing at point of bet and taking a position and then playing it back later when the market moves the way you think it will are two different things.

Some of the comments about arbers sound as whlny as poker players going on about it's so much harder to make money nowadays, people don't just hand over money like they used to!!!

Gotta move with the times, in this digital age markets were gonna get sharper with or without betfair.
Even arbing is more difficult, where I used to arb a fair bit I know take positions in markets and look to green out where appropriate.

[TheDazzler]

I suppose the counter to that would be Fred places a few bets purely for fun or as a New Tipster Welcome Bonus, so taking these little equity offers is just yinging that yang.

I hadn't considered that, though, and am interested to hear the vox populari.

It is Yin-Yang, not Ying-Yang.
Shame really, what with the impeccable Latin.

[Tal]

I suppose the counter to that would be Fred places a few bets purely for fun or as a New Tipster Welcome Bonus, so taking these little equity offers is just yinging that yang.

I hadn't considered that, though, and am interested to hear the vox populari.

It is Yin-Yang, not Ying-Yang.
Shame really, what with the impeccable Latin.

I get scores of things wrong every day, but thank you, The Dazzler, for such an overwhelming display of generosity as only to point out the odd one or two.

[edgascoigne]

.....place an extra tenner on anything that we already have ante-post where that price is still available with BaldFred.

OK Mr Soon-To-Be-Deposed-By-Me Cheltenham Algorithm King, here are our existing bets, though I don't know offhand what prices Mr Done currently goes.

Pick one.....& if BetFred go same or better, we will plunge. Well mini-plunge, anyway.

Gold Cup

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1


Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. (?)

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Mail deBievre £10 EW @ 16/1


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Utopia des Bordes £10 EW @ 10/1.

The Albertas Run and Irish Saint bets are mine Tony. Just a quick update....Albertas should line up and I would think go off 16/1. As horses duck Sprinter Sacre left, right and centre it's going to be pretty competitive but I still like the bet at 25s...

Irish Saint is a likely non-runner....which brings us to a key juncture. The offer with BetVictor was "Non-Runner Free Bet", meaning they will credit a free bet 'token' to the acct in the eventuality of the selection not lining up.

Now then the Terms & Conditions are quite exacting/precise...essentially any voided stakes will be refunded as said token on, I believe, the day of the race, and I think expire after 24hrs. I would check this on their site but they have helpfully taken the page down now they are NRNB.

So....keep an eye on the VC acct on the day of the Triumph and stick the free bet on something Fred likes before they scoop the monies on a technicality

[tikay]

.....place an extra tenner on anything that we already have ante-post where that price is still available with BaldFred.

OK Mr Soon-To-Be-Deposed-By-Me Cheltenham Algorithm King, here are our existing bets, though I don't know offhand what prices Mr Done currently goes.

Pick one.....& if BetFred go same or better, we will plunge. Well mini-plunge, anyway.

Gold Cup

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1


Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. (?)

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Mail deBievre £10 EW @ 16/1


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Utopia des Bordes £10 EW @ 10/1.

The Albertas Run and Irish Saint bets are mine Tony. Just a quick update....Albertas should line up and I would think go off 16/1. As horses duck Sprinter Sacre left, right and centre it's going to be pretty competitive but I still like the bet at 25s...

Irish Saint is a likely non-runner....which brings us to a key juncture. The offer with BetVictor was "Non-Runner Free Bet", meaning they will credit a free bet 'token' to the acct in the eventuality of the selection not lining up.

Now then the Terms & Conditions are quite exacting/precise...essentially any voided stakes will be refunded as said token on, I believe, the day of the race, and I think expire after 24hrs. I would check this on their site but they have helpfully taken the page down now they are NRNB.

So....keep an eye on the VC acct on the day of the Triumph and stick the free bet on something Fred likes before they scoop the monies on a technicality

Thanks Ed, gotcha.

If someone can remind me on the day to check out the situation, I'd appreciate it.

[TheDazzler]

I suppose the counter to that would be Fred places a few bets purely for fun or as a New Tipster Welcome Bonus, so taking these little equity offers is just yinging that yang.

I hadn't considered that, though, and am interested to hear the vox populari.

It is Yin-Yang, not Ying-Yang.
Shame really, what with the impeccable Latin.

I get scores of things wrong every day, but thank you, The Dazzler, for such an overwhelming display of generosity as only to point out the odd one or two.

No problem. I'm sure you'd have done the same for me, as you have done for many others

[david3103]

I may be being icecream-like in my simplistic views of this game, and I'm obviously biassed, but I'd rather be backing United here than RM so 2/1 and slightly better in some places seems a better bet than RM at 7/5. Not at all a recommend though.

Paul Scholes to be carded is evens on betfair - if he plays any part in the match, which seems highly likely.... perhaps that's one to be saved for when the team news is out.
My thoughts were that no Jones means that Carrick could be put on Ronaldo-watch and Scholes plays in his usual spot.
Giggs seems sure to play some part so it could be that the two 'senior' men share the duties.




btw Sky Bet have Mourinho to run down touchline in celebration at 14/1.
Now, given that this is Mourinho, and that this game really matters to him, and that RM will score at least one tonight I've had a cheeky bet on this using my freebie :-)

[tikay]

Today's William Hill Priority Offer - RULING Required

They are offering Jezki @ 7/1.

Jezki is on offer across the Board elsewhere at between 100/30 & 5/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novices-hurdle/winner

I have no idea what prospect Jezki has, but given the price disparity, it seemed a must bet.

In anticipation of someone suggesting the bet, I tried for £30, & got this message.....


The following offer is on your requested bet:
12th Mar 2013 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Jezki
£20.00 @ 7/1 Estimated Returns: £160.00
We can give you an additional offer of:
12th Mar 2013 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Jezki
£10.00 @ 5/1 Estimated Returns: £60.00

So, I have taken £20 @ 7/1. I declined the additional £10 @ 5/1.

Note we already have £20 @ 8/1, down to Ralph.

I think, if we generally agree, that the additional £20 @ 7/1 should be booked to Ralph, as he originally gave that horse.

This is the BetSlip, which I will keep off-thread if we think that is the right & proper route.

11 Mar 2013 - 12th Mar 2013 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Outright

Jezki  @ 7/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £160.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000287/F

I'm quite happy to keep the bet off-thread if need be.

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 1035, Tuesday March 5th

PROFIT on Month = £97.90

Outstanding bets £795



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 1045, Tuesday March 5th

NO bets completed yesterday, so it is as you were. We talked a lot, but never walked much.

Cheltenham activity is increasing, & a further £80 of bets were placed yesterday, bringing the total so far up to £275.

I'm not sure at what stage, if any, we place a limit on how much we invest overall @ Cheltenham. It is the greatest, with tons of value, but most of us have experienced a Cheltenham where we have done the lot. It would be crazy to destroy our profits in one foul swoop, & there will be plenty of opportunities during the year. But Cheltenham is special. I think a sensible balance needs to be struck.

I will Update our current Cheltenham position in a seperate Post.  

Elsewhere.....the Australians capitulated in wimp-like fashion in the Test Match, so Pujara was denied an opportunityt to pile on a few more runs, but we head the table, so we are OK.

Villa lost again, which was not ideal, & QPR are now 2/7 to drop. We have 8/5.

[tikay]

I am working tonight, so no bets can be placed after 6pm.

In the "you could not make it up" & how do these things happen?" Department......

I was not supposed to be working tonight, but thay asked me to step in & help out with.....wait for it.......a 1 Hour Cheltenham Festival Preview.

Can you talk about Cheltenham with a degree of knowledge & answer viewers questions? they asked.

Oh yeah, no problem, I said.

Whoops.

Never will there be so much waffling & ignorance in an hours TV.

My bluffing abilities will be tested to the full tonight.

Been a while since I followed Racing closely. Is Fred Winter still doing well, Johnny Francombe still riding for him? Bob Turnell still training? Jonjo still kicking home the winners?

Talk about It'll be alright on the night.

Luckily, I will have a genuine Racing Expert at hand, as Guest.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

We are actually 2nd in the batting stakes. Here are the totals and current odds for the top 2.

MS Dhoni     268    7/4
Pujara          256    5/4.

[Tal]

At least I'm not doing it. Could you imagine the emails and tweets coming in?

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

We are actually 2nd in the batting stakes. Here are the totals and current odds for the top 2.

MS Dhoni     268    7/4
Pujara          256    5/4.

Ah, apologies hector, but a few smites & he'll be top.

Where did the 5/4 price come from? We are on at 7/2! Lovely jubbly.