Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Doubt there'll be much resting going on if Palace win tomorrow as 4th is still an incentive (big advantage being at home 2nd leg as you get the potential ET at home without the normal disadvantage of away goals).

yes it is an advantage but there is a chance he rests players isn't there?


ps can you give me the date of the last bet you posted on here, also the date of the last post I made that you didn't just disagree with.....if there is one kid.

[Dubai]

To be fair he did put up a bet late at night on Gotze going to Munich.

Although it had been announced he had signed , and I think it was with Paddy Power (might be wrong) so the 83pence everyone could have had at 4/1 would have just about bought a Big Mac, but it would have been a risk free Big Mac.

[Tal]

Probably not one for Fred, but just in case I get accused of being aftertimey...

I'm interested in a particular chess game in Cuba (marathon bet is a joyous beast for no one except me ), where Leinier Dominguez-Perez is playing Dmitry Andreikin in the Capablanca Memorial tournament.

Dominguez is a strong player but can't buy a win at the moment, being the guy who has drawn all seven of his games so far.

A surprise leader is now all but certain to finish above the Cuban and so there's little reason to expect him to go full bore today against a guy in Andreikin who has beaten him twice out of the three classical games (ie normal time control games) they have played (albeit in 2011). Andreikin isn't setting the world alight either, drawing five of his seven in what seems to be a pretty stodgy comp, the leader aside.

The draw is 1.45, which is basically the same as the price of the draw in the other two games and I'd make it nearer 1/3.

Margins are a little tight for Fred tbf, but fun what a little research during a lunch break in Starbucks can offer.

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Chess/


Edit: will qualify all of this by saying my research has not been so thorough as to suggest I know more than the market/odds setters. That's probably a better reason not to bet on it, perhaps. I'm slowly learning, honest.

Judging by the market movement to 1.35, I shall let Fred know that this game is just starting

I went on Marathon Bet today but had forgotten my plastic, and so could not Deposit to place that bet. It looks quite a decent site.

I've been a bit slow to spot this is a Russian site, which explains why the Russian players are shorter than I expected.

Vladimir Kramnik 3.45
Boris Gelfand 13
Draw 1.48

Kramnik has won one game in this tournament and has been well short of his usual standards. Gelfand has been playing very well (including a really good win against Adams) and currently is joint leader with 2 games left.

He and Kramnik, I think, have drawn their last 11 games against each other in classical time controls, so with Kramnik being White, the draw looks big. Gelfand is big, too. The point is that 5/2 for Kramnik screams being too short.

Could this be a symptom of the markets? I am not au fait with this company and its workings.

Just an observation; I can't work out whether Gelfand or the draw is the better bet, so I'm not proposing either.

[Dubai]

If they are a Russian firm and 90%+ of their bets are from Russian clients backing Russian sportsmen, teams- then yes they should theoretically always price up Russians too short, and if its that signficant then in some cases opposing them blind would be correct assuming they arent betting  to 120%+ on 3 outcomes. In this case they are betting to 104% or so

[JaffaCake]

Doubt there'll be much resting going on if Palace win tomorrow as 4th is still an incentive (big advantage being at home 2nd leg as you get the potential ET at home without the normal disadvantage of away goals).

Do u think it's in the price that there may be players rested or not? If it is, and u think there won't be much/any resting, should we be backing Palace, not opposing, as they're mispriced the other way? Or do u think they're priced up 'normally', ie the worst that would happen is we have a bet against Palace at the correct price, with the upside we might bet them at an advantageous price to us? If that's the worst than can happen, not sure why there's negativity to what looks a well thought out proposal?

[Tal]

If they are a Russian firm and 90%+ of their bets are from Russian clients backing Russian sportsmen, teams- then yes they should theoretically always price up Russians too short, and if its that signficant then in some cases opposing them blind would be correct assuming they arent betting  to 120%+ on 3 outcomes. In this case they are betting to 104% or so

Compare 104% to those markets we were looking at in the London Chess Classic on Ladbrokes in December. Some were 120+ iirc.

[Junior Senior]

So people in Fred getting upset with a bit of occasional after timing?

[adnmdv]

To be fair he did put up a bet late at night on Gotze going to Munich.

Although it had been announced he had signed , and I think it was with Paddy Power (might be wrong) so the 83pence everyone could have had at 4/1 would have just about bought a Big Mac, but it would have been a risk free Big Mac.

ha, just because I don't give away free bets all the time doesn't mean I never have bets. Just not really wise to give them away for free is it?

[Dubai]

Nah i know its not. But more to life than winning on your own etc. Nothing wrong with helping others out

[TightEnd]

To be fair he did put up a bet late at night on Gotze going to Munich.

Although it had been announced he had signed , and I think it was with Paddy Power (might be wrong) so the 83pence everyone could have had at 4/1 would have just about bought a Big Mac, but it would have been a risk free Big Mac.

ha, just because I don't give away free bets all the time doesn't mean I never have bets. Just not really wise to give them away for free is it?

Not really the spirit of the hundreds of people, professional punters included, that have put tips up on here is it?

[adnmdv]

Nah i know its not. But more to life than winning on your own etc. Nothing wrong with helping others out

I exchange bets with people all the time. Just happen to not do it here.

Apparently though anything that's posted is totally worthless unless it's a free tip or praise.

Do u think it's in the price that there may be players rested or not? If it is, and u think there won't be much/any resting, should we be backing Palace, not opposing, as they're mispriced the other way? Or do u think they're priced up 'normally', ie the worst that would happen is we have a bet against Palace at the correct price, with the upside we might bet them at an advantageous price to us? If that's the worst than can happen, not sure why there's negativity to what looks a well thought out proposal?

It's priced midway between Palace winning/not winning tomorrow. If you back them and they don't win the price will move lots towards Palace.

[Tal]

Paul Lambert taking the mickey now: bringing Darren Bent on.

[The Camel]

Nah i know its not. But more to life than winning on your own etc. Nothing wrong with helping others out

I exchange bets with people all the time. Just happen to not do it here.

Apparently though anything that's posted is totally worthless unless it's a free tip or praise.

Do u think it's in the price that there may be players rested or not? If it is, and u think there won't be much/any resting, should we be backing Palace, not opposing, as they're mispriced the other way? Or do u think they're priced up 'normally', ie the worst that would happen is we have a bet against Palace at the correct price, with the upside we might bet them at an advantageous price to us? If that's the worst than can happen, not sure why there's negativity to what looks a well thought out proposal?

It's priced midway between Palace winning/not winning tomorrow. If you back them and they don't win the price will move lots towards Palace.

What is the downside of putting up bets here after you've got your bets on?

[Dubai]

Theres obviously a small downside educating people in anything you do for a living. Its only now that people are actually realising how stupid it is to put up training videos and showing people EXACTLY how to beat the games that they play.

Sports betting is obv slightly different, particularly really liquid football markets, the downside is completely neglible imo

[BigAdz]

How to make urself unpopular in one easy post....oh well

To be fair adn made some valid points(yes, aftertiming again, even if I didnt bet any of them!).

If adn doesn't want to share his stuff, thats fair enough too, but I think if you are going to chip and and knock a bet you should give it a try, and leave yourself open to the same"flack".

You may become an Elder or you may be cast of the wasteland, with the majority of the rest of us that have tried and failed. All part of the game adnmdv!