Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Didn't propose a chess bet today, given that every win I propose on Fred of late ends in a draw. Kept my own powder dry, too.

Obviously, four decisive games out of five today.

 

[simonnatur]

Warning Ice Cream question, sorry to interrupt Classics chat..  Does anyone have a view on Candleford in 8.10 Wetherby this evening - looks a big price to me. Best priced 14/1 beats Betfair. Decent e/w bet

Weeee,  got one right.... a few heart stopping moments in that race,  went off 9/2

[tikay]

Warning Ice Cream question, sorry to interrupt Classics chat..  Does anyone have a view on Candleford in 8.10 Wetherby this evening - looks a big price to me. Best priced 14/1 beats Betfair. Decent e/w bet

Weeee,  got one right.... a few heart stopping moments in that race,  went off 9/2

Well done Simon.

[ripple11]

Warning Ice Cream question, sorry to interrupt Classics chat..  Does anyone have a view on Candleford in 8.10 Wetherby this evening - looks a big price to me. Best priced 14/1 beats Betfair. Decent e/w bet

Weeee,  got one right.... a few heart stopping moments in that race,  went off 9/2

nice one...he did his best to muck it up....but the money was down alright.

[Doobs]

Paddy Power are refunding losing bets if your horse finishes 2nd to the SP favourite tomorrow at Epsom.  Looking at the prices on the horses in each race then you would have to say that the Oaks is the best place to use this bet.  We also have a big position on Secret Gesture in the race, so backing the 2nd two is a decent hedge.  

The refund is limited to £100 a customer, but I guess we are going to be restricted.  Thread should try and get £50 on Moth 7/2 and Liber Nauticus (4/1) with Paddy Power.  Race is 4 pm at Epsom tomorrow.  You also get best price guaranteed, so bet seems a no brainier to me.

EDIT.  Should add that I am limited to £40 on each, as some scrote has allegedly spent £900 on fine art prints on my card the last couple of days, hence my card is cancelled so I can't deposit.  Nothing out of the ordinary in those transactions it seems, though I make a couple of gambling transactions in close proximity and they are right on it.    

JENNINGS BET  have the same offer, but only for a maximum £25 refund.

Just checked and they are 100/30 and 7/2 on Moth and Liber Nauticus.  Doesn't sound so great, but will do some maths when nippers definitely asleep

There are three significant differences between the two offers.

Paddy Power are very close to betfair mid price on both horses.  So you get 4.5 (Paddy Power expressed as decimal) vs 4.65 (Betfair) on Moth and 5 (Paddy Power) vs 5.25 on Liber Nauticus.

So on my calcs, you only lose about 3.3% long run on Paddy Power on Moth and 4.8% on Liber Nauticus before the offers kick in.  

I have done a back of the envelope on the chances of coming 2nd to Secret Gesture and I think it is about 9% for Moth and 8% for Liber Nauticus.  

In addition to this Paddy Power do best price guaranteed, which is worth something, no idea what as I have never done the maths but guess it is worth another 3% or so.  So in isolation the Moth bet is +10% long run, and the Liber Nauticus bet makes you 6% long run.

Looking at the current Jennings prices, you get 3/1 Moth and 7/2 Liber Nauticus.  

If you take those prices before the offer you will lose 14% on Moth and 15% on Liber Nauticus.  

By contrast with Paddy Power, you don't get money back if you lose, you get a free bet on Jennings prices in the Derby.  A free bet is worth less than cash, and if that free bet is with Jennings on the Derby at a price that isn't that near Betfair, then you probably lose something like 15% vs payment in cash.

There is also no sign you get best odds guaranteed with Jennings, though I may have missed it.

So overall, you lose about 7% on backing Moth and 9% on backing Liber Nauticus if you take up this Jennings "offer".  

So to answer Tal's question, you don't take up these offers blind, and definitely not this one.

We have gained a bit more than I have calculated on the Paddy Power offer, because we now have a hedge, albeit one that was +EV in its own right.  You definitely don't hedge blind, but sometimes it is win/win.

EDIT.  Just checked Paddy Power and they are now 3/1 Moth, so I wouldn't take up that offer on Moth right now, but the Liber Nauticus one is still good for those who haven't got it yet.
 

[Tal]

Thank goodness for the sandman.

Great answer, doobs

[BigAdz]

Thank goodness for the sandman.

Great answer, doobs

Are u Superman, or just bluffin?

Under a minute and a half to not only read, but digest, thats assuming you read it the second it was posted

[tikay]

Great answer, thanks Doobs.

I did the math, too, and came to precisely the same answers.

[Tal]

Thank goodness for the sandman.

Great answer, doobs

Are u Superman, or just bluffin?

Under a minute and a half to not only read, but digest, thats assuming you read it the second it was posted

To be fair to Doobs, I've applied the Tikay Principle of assuming the maths as presented is correct.

Then it is just reading the words and getting it broadly digested.

And, yes, I refresh blonde about every thirty seconds

[a.sparrow]

I think Channing recommended a bet on License to Till earlier this month at 10/1 when it got beaten by Boonga Roogeta, it's running again tomorrow at Epsom in the 2:10.  Any interest in it this time at 14/1?

[Doobs]

Moving on.

BetVictor are offering money back as a free bet if Dawn Approach wins the Derby.  As Tighty got in first with Chopin, suggest £50 for thread with BetVictor on the Derby WIN ONLY.  Put this bet down to Tighty.  It isn't exactly what he asked for as it isn't each way, but each way is bad because it is net losses that count, and if the place part wins we lose the refund.

The bet is +EV by about 25% if you use your free bet wisely.  

For those not constrained by me letting Tighty get here first, Mars is closer to Betfair so is probably better value mathematically (all assuming we know nothing about the horses).  There is no harm in spreading your £50 across both these horses (Mars and Chopin).  This is what I'll be doing (£30 Chopin/£20 Mars)

If Tighty doesn't want it, I'll take it

[horseplayer]

i actually hesitated putting chopin up on thread a few weeks ago but the price went to 16-1 the night i was considering posting (i missed the price also so have not backed it)

obviously i like the horse but it is now by far the shortest it has ever been and the "mystique" of coming from a completely different form line is now factored into the price

there are also very big stamina queries on the pedigree

[Doobs]

Finally.

BetVictor are offering money back as a free bet if an Irish horse wins the Oaks up to £25.  It has to be on the mobile app to qualify.

Given our exposure to Secret Gesture and the fact Moth is Irish, I think this is best put on my favourite slow old boat, Liber Nauticus at 4/1.

Suggest £25 Liber Nauticus to win the Oaks on the mobile app.

[Doobs]

i actually hesitated putting chopin up on thread a few weeks ago but the price went to 16-1 the night i was considering posting (i missed the price also so have not backed it)

obviously i like the horse but it is now by far the shortest it has ever been and the "mystique" of coming from a completely different form line is now factored into the price

there are also very big stamina queries on the pedigree

It wasn't my choice as the best bet in the race, and neither was Mars.  but we are effectively getting about 15/1 on the horse because of the offer.  I just assume the market is vaguely right so won't be laying, but people can always lay on Betfair if they think it is too short.  They can do the same with Mars.

FWIW +EV nature of the bets in order under this offer.  Just go down the list until you find one you like, even Libertarian at 14s has a +EV of around 12% under this offer.  Mars is about +24%. 

Mars
Chopin
Ocovango
Ruler of the World
Battle of Morengo
Libertarian.

[tikay]

Thanks Doobs, will action them shortly. I think - correct me if I am wrong - that these are "Offers", if so, I think they get owned by Fred.

Meanwhile, the cleaner lady comes tomorrow, sigh, so I need to go get the pre-cleaner clean done.  What a life.