Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

I am going to do a quick ante post update on our free bets to counteract some of the doom and gloom that will follow today's sea of red that I have been mostly responsible for (though a couple of jockeys should possibly hold their hands up too).

I think I have put up 3 free bets and a couple of other ante post bets going forward.

Libertarian is now top priced 6s for the St Leger.  We backed it at 8s.  The 6s can't last for much longer as it is below that on Betfair and the price of Ruler of the World on Betfair has drifted noticeably over the last week or so (from 5s to 10s approx.)  I'd say that the drift suggests the Leger is no longer in the plans of his connections.  

As suggested after we placed the bet, it was probably an error backing Libertarian each way for the race.  Just because havings 8s each way isn't ever going to look bad on a horse that is 5s, the bet would have looked better still if we had just put it on the win at 8s.  I tend to sometimes err towards the nittier option with some bets here, but nitty is usually bad, so I need to stop that.  The horse does look so much like the ideal horse for the race, both on breeding and the way he finished the Derby.  I guess you never know what goes through their heads of some connections, but would be happy to take evens on him lining up for the race.

I think we have got a bit fortunate with our Declaration of War bet for the Queen Anne.  We got 12s and he is now best priced 10s (all the other bookies are at 8s or less), after the injuries to Farhh and Cityscope.  Though I didn't expect Farhh to run in this race, it was still good news for our bet.   I was getting a bit worried about this bet, as the Betfair market felt a bit whiffy with a lack of backers for our horse, but it was announced today that this was his target.  If he makes it, it looks like it is shaping to be a very good each way race.  

Our two Arc free bets are both looking solid.  Orfevre was backed at 6s, and that price just beats Betfair and is now only available in two spots (generally 5s).  I am pleased with Ocovango, which we backed at 25s.  Immediately after the Derby I thought he looked unlucky in the race, but if you look at the race I think he would definitely have finished in the top 3 without the bumps (he got blocked early in the straight, and Ruler of The World squeezed him at the two furling pole forcing him to lose momentum).  It seems the punters have agreed with me and he is now best priced 16s.

I would say our Telescope bet now looks just as good as our Lewis Hamilton season long bet.  Thankfully only one of them is down to me.

[Tal]

Doobs has quad eights.

[Bazzaboy]

Afolabi hasn't turned up tonight so it doesn't look like today is going to get any better.

[Doobs]

I think we have two free bets now.

I think the first should go on Reckless Abandon in the Kings Stand.

He was unlucky in the last race, as his side looked like it went too quickly, and he got caught by the horses on the other side not far from the line.  I don't think much to the current bunch of sprinters.  He is only 3 so should be getting better, and there seems a lot of confidence in the market (he is in from 10s a few days ago).  He is best price with Hills, and it beats Betfair.

Suggest £25 free bet with William Hill, Reckless Abandon, Kings Stand 18th June.

I haven't got a home for the 2nd on yet, but am keeping an eye on the Ascot markets.

[Bazzaboy]

Can we have £40 on Thornton.to beat Barney at 7/4 with Boyles, 13/8 is ok to.
Thornton is the Holder of this Tournament amd is in good form.Barney has been moaning in every interview so far tho still playing well.
I'd make this more of a 5/4, 11/8 shot

Are you on Snakebite in the outrights?

Just saw your post on the darts thread. He is playing as well as anyone, draw keeping the big guns apart hasn't helped though.

I am mate, missed the 125/1 with Bet365 but on ew at 100/1
If Taylor lost in that match I would have been more confident of a return.
Pretty poor from Thornton to lose from 4-1 up with the throw.

Can't complain with that draw. One of the big two got to go. No idea what Lewis will turn up though

[Snowball]

Can we have £40 on Thornton.to beat Barney at 7/4 with Boyles, 13/8 is ok to.
Thornton is the Holder of this Tournament amd is in good form.Barney has been moaning in every interview so far tho still playing well.
I'd make this more of a 5/4, 11/8 shot

Are you on Snakebite in the outrights?

Just saw your post on the darts thread. He is playing as well as anyone, draw keeping the big guns apart hasn't helped though.

I am mate, missed the 125/1 with Bet365 but on ew at 100/1
If Taylor lost in that match I would have been more confident of a return.
Pretty poor from Thornton to lose from 4-1 up with the throw.

Can't complain with that draw. One of the big two got to go. No idea what Lewis will turn up though

When Taylor cane out I was shouting at the Tv, SIX SIX SIX, my neighbours must think im a sexpest.
I also have Hamilton ew at 50/1, so hopefully one of them can make the final.

[Bazzaboy]

Huck wins a majority decision

114-114
115-113
117-111

Afolabi gave away too many early rounds.

[horseplayer]

Overanalyze is 9-1 in the states and about 11-1 over here with the books

we got the value but anything could happen here

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

In today's French tennis final Nadal plays Ferrer. I initially looked at betting on Ferrer to win a set and that looks an OK bet at 6/5. Nadal has won their last 2 meetings on clay 2-1. However I can't see past a Nadal win and we can back Nadal to win 3-1 at 11/4 and that looks like the better value bet to me.

Suggest £20 Nadal to win 3-1 @ 11/4 with William Hill

[BigAdz]

I think we have two free bets now.

I think the first should go on Reckless Abandon in the Kings Stand.

He was unlucky in the last race, as his side looked like it went too quickly, and he got caught by the horses on the other side not far from the line.  I don't think much to the current bunch of sprinters.  He is only 3 so should be getting better, and there seems a lot of confidence in the market (he is in from 10s a few days ago).  He is best price with Hills, and it beats Betfair.

Suggest £25 free bet with William Hill, Reckless Abandon, Kings Stand 18th June.

I haven't got a home for the 2nd on yet, but am keeping an eye on the Ascot markets.

For a free bet I really like Most Improved in the Queen Anne. Admittedly it's taking on Animal Kingdom but at 12s it could be massive.

It's moved from Meehan, who is a most over rated trainer IMO, to O Brien..a few others have left Meehan and gone to O Meara and all have improved bucket loads, so pretty sure The Irish Wizard can improve this fella. It won at Ascot last year in the st James palace, and looks an ideal punt for the free bet.

If not the freebie £10EW @WH 12s

[Chompy]

Aidan O'Brien says Sir John Hawkins could join Stubbs in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Both are towards the top of the pecking order at home it seems and are joint-favs for next year's 2,000 Guineas.

Stubbs is 7/2 for the Coventry, Sir John Hawkins is 12/1! (Bet365)

Rec £25 Sir John Hawkins @ 12/1

Also, Camelot is 11/4 for the Prince Of Wales's at Ascot but being ignored for the Eclipse on Betty. I've no idea why, Aidan loves Camelot and loves the Eclipse.

Rec £25 @ 17 Camelot for the Eclipse

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

In today's French tennis final Nadal plays Ferrer. I initially looked at betting on Ferrer to win a set and that looks an OK bet at 6/5. Nadal has won their last 2 meetings on clay 2-1. However I can't see past a Nadal win and we can back Nadal to win 3-1 at 11/4 and that looks like the better value bet to me.

Suggest £20 Nadal to win 3-1 @ 11/4 with William Hill

Morning (?) h.

Missed 11/4, took 5/2, but reduced bet to £16, as too tired to research the market properly.

£16 @ 5/2, Nadal to beat Ferrer 3-1.

ON



09 Jun 2013 - Rafael Nadal v David Ferrer - Set Betting

Tip It

Rafael Nadal 3-1 @ 5/2

Stake : £16.00


Estimated Returns : £

56.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000469/F

[TightEnd]

Daily report coming up

Look away now if you suffer from shock easily

[TightEnd]

tikay, I have it covered....

[tikay]

I agreed to do the Daily Report today, but I don't feel so good and am going back to bed, will do it later tonight, or in the morning.

Will also work through the various horse racing suggestions later, head too frazzled to sort them at the moment. Don't want any Ms Clicks,  do we?