Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

tikay, I have it covered....

Ahh, thanks Rich, posts crossed.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £360.73

Outstanding Bets £1117.25

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=25


A loss of over £400 yesterday with no less than 23 individual bets all losing and not a single winner

The losses ranged from racing, on both sides of the Atlantic to MMA (right result, wrong method as the fella won in the second round and not by decision) Darts (with Thornton throwing away a winning position) and Rugby (Tuilagi off injured)

Dust ourselves down and go again though


I have a bee in my bonnet about Men of Match bets in rugby matches

Tuilagi is a fine player, but there are 30 players on the pitch, Ignore those unlikely to get man of the match, say the two front rows, so thats realistically 24 players that can win it

More likely that a goalkicker or a try scorer wins it, or a back row forward in a close forward orientated game, yes. However I don't see how backing anyone MOM at less than 20-1 can EVER be statistical value, with the possible exception of a very high profile winger with form for multi-try scoring matches (Habana say) or the goalkicker.

I thought this yesterday, was too busy to write it, and mentioned to tikay that I would raise the subject for discuission

Just doesn't strike me as +ev betting, happy to be proven wrong by Hector

Of course when our man goes off injured, thats just bad luck

[TightEnd]

For admin there are two £25 free bets due from yesterday with William Hill

Time limit for placing these usually a week

Doobs has proposed one in the Kings Stand, one more to follow

[TightEnd]

Windies 8/1 >>>>> 4/1

lol NZ

if they're up there, I'll give you the money myself.

and I have had a bee in my bonnet about this too

Mr Katais this thread has been going for 18 months and is the busiest on blonde by far

In part it works because of the sense of community and atmosphere

If we disagree with bets we argue why, we don't belittle and ridicule. If we all did that, people wouldn't want to post in here

So, "lol NZ" isn't that helpful is it?

I'm a mod on here and grown quite a thick skin but even I in receipt of your withering dismissal felt about two foot tall.

Ideally criticise before the bet goes on.

If afterwards be constructive and if you think its wrong explain why

I doubt you had even read the rationale for the best in the first place

All the tips are in https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=25

this spreadsheet is linked on the first post of the thread and next to each bet is a link to the bet proposal

thank you

[horseplayer]

veeeceee refunded my Tuilagi  tenner

no idea why but they did so worth checking

no idea on the value of the bet just worth mentioning

[superwomble]

Tikay - one to check - the lay of Brighton to get promoted. I think you had the same thing happen as I did, where no commission was charged on the winnings. I've just been going though my Betfair account and have seen that two weeks after the bet was settled they charged me commission on the winnings.

In between these two events I also had a 'commission rebate'of 27p about which I know nothing...

Apologies if this has been covered already.

Just in case this got missed.

[scotty2hatty]

Poor show from last night's UFC action, apologies.

Better news from the Greyhound Derby which I'll update on train if I get some wifi.

[MereNovice]

Tikay - one to check - the lay of Brighton to get promoted. I think you had the same thing happen as I did, where no commission was charged on the winnings. I've just been going though my Betfair account and have seen that two weeks after the bet was settled they charged me commission on the winnings.

In between these two events I also had a 'commission rebate'of 27p about which I know nothing...

Apologies if this has been covered already.

Just in case this got missed.

Thanks for bringing this up.
The commission on tikay's bet was charged in the same way, i.e. two weeks after the bet was settled.
Since the bet was covered in the previous month's accounts I decided not to include the commission for this bet on the spreadsheet.
In future we have decided to apply a 5% commission on all Betfair profits irrespective of the actual settling on Betfair. This should ensure a more consistent approach.

[superwomble]

Tikay - one to check - the lay of Brighton to get promoted. I think you had the same thing happen as I did, where no commission was charged on the winnings. I've just been going though my Betfair account and have seen that two weeks after the bet was settled they charged me commission on the winnings.

In between these two events I also had a 'commission rebate'of 27p about which I know nothing...

Apologies if this has been covered already.

Just in case this got missed.

Thanks for bringing this up.
The commission on tikay's bet was charged in the same way, i.e. two weeks after the bet was settled.
Since the bet was covered in the previous month's accounts I decided not to include the commission for this bet on the spreadsheet.
In future we have decided to apply a 5% commission on all Betfair profits irrespective of the actual settling on Betfair. This should ensure a more consistent approach.

Good stuff 

[scotty2hatty]

Greyhound Derby 2nd Round Update

Farloe Warhawk - £25 @ 33/1: Fantastic performance as he smashed out and ran the track well in 28:31!!! Only Ballymac Eske (28:21) and Droopys Jet (28:28) went faster and Farloe Warhawk can lead most races whilst it isn't guaranteed with those two. Now into 16/1 best price.

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Jaytee Hellcat - £10 @ 100/1: Another 2nd round winner and in impressive fashion as he showed improved early pace and won in 28:32. Great time. Now best priced 20/1.

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Loughteen Blanco - £15 @ 66/1: Price had drifted to 125/1 after a horrible opening round where he was lucky to get through but bounced back to win his 2nd round heat. 100/1 now.

#Invalid YouTube Link#

Skate On - £10 @ 150/1: Safely into the draw for the 3rd round after showing her good early but then fading as predicted. Early pace is what gets her through. BP 80/1.

Unfortunately we lost Farloe Barracuda which was our biggest bet and Any Dak, who was our smallest. For Marky, Holdem Spy is through too.

[Marky147]

Greyhound Derby 2nd Round Update

Farloe Warhawk - £25 @ 33/1: Fantastic performance as he smashed out and ran the track well in 28:31!!! Only Ballymac Eske (28:21) and Droopys Jet (28:28) went faster and Farloe Warhawk can lead most races whilst it isn't guaranteed with those two. Now into 16/1 best price.



Jaytee Hellcat - £10 @ 100/1: Another 2nd round winner and in impressive fashion as he showed improved early pace and won in 28:32. Great time. Now best priced 20/1.



Loughteen Blanco - £15 @ 66/1: Price had drifted to 125/1 after a horrible opening round where he was lucky to get through but bounced back to win his 2nd round heat. 100/1 now.



Skate On - £10 @ 150/1: Safely into the draw for the 3rd round after showing her good early but then fading as predicted. Early pace is what gets her through. BP 80/1.

Unfortunately we lost Farloe Barracuda which was our biggest bet and Any Dak, who was our smallest. For Marky, Holdem Spy is through too.

Nice one Scotty

[Tal]

This cricket match is bananas. The pitch doesn't seem to be all that bad, yet neither team has looked capable of staying in. 138 is almost defensible.


I will say that the 'pulse' question thing is really getting on my nerves. The one yesterday was "Can England defend this total?" and I remember it being about 2/3 Yes.

As you know, I'm not one to be all pedantic about grammar...but 100% of the submitted answers should have been Yes, because 'Can' means 'physically capable'; is it possible? Yes. Will it happen on this occasion? Different question. So, the question should have been WILL England defend this total?



Meanwhile, in the darts, Wayne Mardle produced a classic under the presure of a tough finish for Taylor, exclaiming that the double 11 he was attempting was "easier to miss!" Easy to be critical in the heat of the moment, but it did make me smile.

[Tal]

Nadal now 2 sets up and a break at 5-4.

Sad face.

[BigAdz]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £360.73

Outstanding Bets £1117.25

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=25


A loss of over £400 yesterday with no less than 23 individual bets all losing and not a single winner

The losses ranged from racing, on both sides of the Atlantic to MMA (right result, wrong method as the fella won in the second round and not by decision) Darts (with Thornton throwing away a winning position) and Rugby (Tuilagi off injured)

Dust ourselves down and go again though


I have a bee in my bonnet about Men of Match bets in rugby matches

Tuilagi is a fine player, but there are 30 players on the pitch, Ignore those unlikely to get man of the match, say the two front rows, so thats realistically 24 players that can win it

More likely that a goalkicker or a try scorer wins it, or a back row forward in a close forward orientated game, yes. However I don't see how backing anyone MOM at less than 20-1 can EVER be statistical value, with the possible exception of a very high profile winger with form for multi-try scoring matches (Habana say) or the goalkicker.

I thought this yesterday, was too busy to write it, and mentioned to tikay that I would raise the subject for discuission

Just doesn't strike me as +ev betting, happy to be proven wrong by Hector

Of course when our man goes off injured, thats just bad luck

+1 to MOM and suchlike bets. Unless we got a bit of info that makes it value, like someone playing in a more prominent position than usual, making them more likely to score, or have to defend vs a superstar, then unlikely we are beating the market.

NB I got refund from Victor to, but I did have to burst into a corporate box dressed as a WAG, to get Victor to agree....

[Tal]

Tennis Bod-types, why are the interviews en Anglais?