Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

It's not a long course, in fact the bigger hitters were only expected to use driver off the tee a couple of times each round so considering the course has to be playable (as in not waterlogged) I don't think the rain is much of a factor personally.

I don't think it's suddenly going to start favouring the bombers although the greens being receptive does jog my memory back to McIlroy's US Open win on an untypically soft course a couple of years ago.

ok

so its 6/1 Woods and 20/1 the field in a championship that is often set up tough and can produce a "random" winner (Lucas Glover)

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-open/winner

Only two of the last eight have seen a winning score of under -1 and I'm searching for high price value that might fit the prevailing course, conditions and form

Ideas please!

[horseplayer]

It's not a long course, in fact the bigger hitters were only expected to use driver off the tee a couple of times each round so considering the course has to be playable (as in not waterlogged) I don't think the rain is much of a factor personally.

I don't think it's suddenly going to start favouring the bombers although the greens being receptive does jog my memory back to McIlroy's US Open win on an untypically soft course a couple of years ago.

ok

so its 6/1 Woods and 20/1 the field in a championship that is often set up tough and can produce a "random" winner (Lucas Glover)

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-open/winner

Only two of the last eight have seen a winning score of under -1 and I'm searching for high price value that might fit the prevailing course, conditions and form

Ideas please!

the sbi preview is always a good read i find

he is having a good year as well and often looks at different angles to the norm

http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/SBI-betting-blog.html

a few big prices there

(it is a long running free website i have no link to)

have no knowledge on golf betting but he certainly puts the work in

the prices he have suggested have generally gone a bit now on the bigger ones anyway so whether they are still worthwhile ill leave to somebody else

[Chompy]

SIR HENRY CECIL, one of the most influential and successful racehorse trainers of all time, has died. He was 70.

Oh my God.

Well I suppose it was expected, & we hated to see the great man suffer so.

There was never a trainer I admired & respected more than Sir Henry. He learned well from his stepfather, Sir Cecil-Boyd Rochfort, another of the all-time greats especially with stayers & Cup horses.

RIP Sir Henry. 

Very sad day. Absolute legend.

[horseplayer]

some player quotes

Justin Rose “You will be lucky to advance it more than 100 yards out of the rough”
Bubba Watson “It’s a cool place, will be hitting lots of long irons this week”
Zach Johnson “It’s not short, lots of long irons and hybrids”
Ernie Els “I don’t care if they get helicopters flying over the fairways, it’s not going to dry up”
Adam Scott “The ball will stop where it lands, if you’re accurate you’ll be fine”
YE Yang “The course is a large outdoor swimming pool right now”

[JoeBeevers]

SIR HENRY CECIL, one of the most influential and successful racehorse trainers of all time, has died. He was 70.

Sad news.

I have a large framed picture of Reference Point up in the attic. I backed it at 7/1 for the Derby after it won the Futurity with a North London bookmaker called Heronglade (they only charged 5% tax at the time). The Sporting Life headline the day after the Derby was 'Heronglade Go Bust'

I kept the signed picture to remind me of the mistake I made and it was on my office wall for over 10 years. It was a fortune to me at the time.

Cecil was a legend. RIP

[TightEnd]

I am not a golf expert but I am a fan of statistics, and trying to apply those to the conditions at play here

"If you are accurate you will be fine"

So I looked at the USPGA stats for 2013 in two categories

Driving accuracy - ie stay out of the rough

Greens in regulation ie hit pars, and this shouldn't be a tough putting course

Only two players appear in the top 20 of these two categories

http://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats/stats_leaders/PGA/2013/drivingAccuracy

http://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats/stats_leaders/PGA/2013/greensHit

Henrik Stenson and Boo Weekley

Weekley won recently http://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/playerpage/285351/boo-weekley

Has made the cut in 14 of 16 events and has four top ten finishes.

Stenson has 3 top tens in 10 events

http://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/playerpage/474782/henrik-stenson

Stenson 70-1, Weekley 100-1

e/w

Put me off....

 

[BigAdz]

Certainly good stats picks Tighty.

Never sure how the stats figures are calulated, eg; Driving. if a course has 4 Par , for example, then that is only 14 holes that count, equating to @ 7% a hole. If that's the case the difference of one extra fairway covers almost the Top 50?

if that's the case I would say its a useful guide but.......the putting stats are where the top dogs hang out

http://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats/stats_leaders/PGA/2013/putting

[Doobs]

If I was backing Stenson, I'd take the 70/1 and get 17.5/1 on the each way with Paddy Power (mobile bets only).  This compares favourably with Betfair which has a worse price on the top 5 only.  Make sure you put in on by mobile, I just skimmed the offer and put it on by desktop ffs (though first 6 still beats Betfair).  7th is inevitable now.

I am not giving an opinion on the golfers.

[horseplayer]

First two shots I've seen from the rough at Merion today were advanced 40 and 65 yards, respectively, eyeballing it. It is downright nasty.


from somebody on course

[bobby1]

The golf looks like being v messy this week, if the forecast is correct I cannot see them getting everyone finished on the first day. If that happens then it  might turn out to be an advantage to be out late on the first day as there must be a good chance you get to come back and finish your round off in the better weather on Friday.

There is rain around during the early part of the day on Thursday too but this hourly forecast caught my eye for around 10pm our time, 17.00 local time on the first day.


17:00-20.00  
Temp 17 °c

Rain fall 25.8 mm
Wind speed 16 mph
Gusts up to 34 mph

I actually had to check that 25.8 mm of rain wasn't a misprint, if that forecast holds then they will be off the course then and probably not back again for the rest of the day. The consensus seems to be that the middle 7 holes are the scoring part of the course and most of those seem to favour a fade bar the tenth which might be drivable if they have the tee up. The majority of the holes look to either be fade holes or have most of the trouble on the right. Looks like a course Tiger will like tbh as they won't be hitting a lot of drivers thru the scoring holes and he is hitting a nice fade off the tee tho I have had a small bet on Kaymer as he only hits it one way and this looks a nice course for him. It's by no means a T4T strength suggestion tho.

tbh I think the best way to approach it is to not have a bet at all pre tourney and wait until they have got 36 holes in and then make selections when we know which players have survived the weather and are still in with a chance. The interesting thing is I am seeing quotes of around 10 under as the winning score because the course is likely to play softer and not as a typical fast and dry US Open course, so it looks like being different to normal US Open events. Last 5 holes look really tough tho.

I love a good flyover cam too to get a feel for the course.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snFMl8LJYc4&list=PLnU5qUEfww3exEfnZlPWt5PTdwKSZN_oP&index=1

good luck guys

[JaffaCake]

 

Come back at halftime to give us some more guidance Phil

[bobby1]

I've just read that Webb Simpson calls Merion his favourite course so no harm in having a small bet on a previous US Open winner.



Olympic will always be treasured by Simpson, but the 27-year-old North Carolinian has had a love affair with Merion since his first visit nine years ago and calls it his favourite course.

Merion was where Bobby Jones completed his Grand Slam with a 1930 victory in the U.S. Amateur, and 20 years later more lore was made when Hogan rifled a one-iron to the 18th green on the 72nd hole to force a playoff that gave him an inspirational major victory 16 months after a near-fatal car crash.

"The first time I came here was 2004, before the U.S. Amateur. I came with my dad and a couple of guys. It was November, the weather was bad," said Simpson.

"We sat in the clubhouse with one of the long‑time members. He was telling us the history of the club, Hogan's shot on 18, the story behind that, a story within the story.

"I love history."

Simpson came back the next year for the amateur competition.

"When I played in '05 I instantly fell in love with this golf course. I grew up on a short golf course and I felt like too many courses nowadays come with a standard 75, 7,600 yards, and Merion is so different.

"We all know it's short, but it's still as hard as other courses," added Simpson, who lost to Anthony Kim in the second round of the 2005 U.S. Amateur.

[horseplayer]

Tikay if you are still awake really like some bets on the Ecuador Argentina game (10 o clock kick off)

problem is markets are only on Betfair and liquidity is nil at present

will try and post around 9.50pm

[tikay]

Tikay if you are still awake really like some bets on the Ecuador Argentina game (10 o clock kick off)

problem is markets are only on Betfair and liquidity is nil at present

will try and post around 9.50pm

Am still awake at present.......

[horseplayer]