Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Can I dip my toe into the NBA waters?  Miami are 6.5 point favourites at home tonight against the Pacers.  In the first game they were 7.5 point favourites and won fairly comfortably by 8 but zig zag theory (which is the theory that a team that won the first game of a series should be half a point or more shorter faves or bigger dogs because of the extra motivation for a team behind in the series) means the line should be 7 this game at least and then Chris Bosh is out.  Bosh is the lesser of the three superstars in Miami but he is very important and because they stretched their salary cap so much the fall off to the squad players is more pronounced than it is for other teams and I would make a two point adjustment for Bosh personally making the correct line 5.  Added to that the Heat are a 'public' team and lines are generally shaded in their favour anyway and theoretically it could be as low as 4.5 and that ties in with our bet laying the Heat for the rings.  Not a massive bet but maybe £50 +7 10/11 with Hills?

[Bad Beat]

 100% agree with this. It was 7.5 before bosh was out, doesn't seem like enough of an adjustment to me.

[tikay]

Can I dip my toe into the NBA waters?  Miami are 6.5 point favourites at home tonight against the Pacers.  In the first game they were 7.5 point favourites and won fairly comfortably by 8 but zig zag theory (which is the theory that a team that won the first game of a series should be half a point or more shorter faves or bigger dogs because of the extra motivation for a team behind in the series) means the line should be 7 this game at least and then Chris Bosh is out.  Bosh is the lesser of the three superstars in Miami but he is very important and because they stretched their salary cap so much the fall off to the squad players is more pronounced than it is for other teams and I would make a two point adjustment for Bosh personally making the correct line 5.  Added to that the Heat are a 'public' team and lines are generally shaded in their favour anyway and theoretically it could be as low as 4.5 and that ties in with our bet laying the Heat for the rings.  Not a massive bet but maybe £50 +7 10/11 with Hills?

You most certainly can! Our Basketball Corry has gone AWOL, & we've been left with Sicilian.....

We have exactly that, £55 with Wm Hill @10/11, Indiana Pacers, +7.

I'm not entirely sure, but I believe we have LAID Miami Heat in something. Not sure what, though.

ON

16 May 2012 - Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat - Spread

Indiana Pacers (+7.0) @ 10/11

Stake : £55.00
Estimated Returns : £105.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000011/F

[redarmi]

According to your cut and paste you have actually had £55 to win £50 on the Pacers...which is fine but just so reporting is correct etc.

[tikay]

According to your cut and paste you have actually had £55 to win £50 on the Pacers...which is fine but just so reporting is correct etc.

Bugger.

Yes, you are correct, the bet was £55 to win £50 - I'll edit my Post.

[tikay]

League One Play off semi second leg

Huddersfield at 23/20 Wm Hill, 11/10 generally

Huddersfield won the first Leg 2-0 away and according to two friends who went, were vastly superior.

Perhaps they should be, their £20m+ budget compares to £1.5m at the land of the roundabout cows

Huddersfield won't want to muck around tonight, I expect them to go out to win

I was surprised they weren't odds-on before I checked the markets


Statsville:

Huddersfield are unbeaten in their last eight matches against MK Dons, including 5 wins

For MK Dons a first leg deficit has been overturned nine times in the play-off semi-finals at this level in twenty six years; three clubs only have progressed despite being two goals in arrears after the first match

Both were in the play offs last year. MK Dons lost at this stage, their third time of doing so. Huddersfield lost in the final to Peterborough

Recommend

£100 Huddersfield at 23-20 Wm Hill if you can get it

I don't quote that for the purposes of rubs, Rich, but it really did look such a good thing. Everything about it looked right. It lost, 1-2.

The price, as I noted when I placed the bet (which I SO nearly upped to a "MAX"), seemed suspiciously high. They knew something we did not, I guess.

[the sicilian]

Can I dip my toe into the NBA waters?  Miami are 6.5 point favourites at home tonight against the Pacers.  In the first game they were 7.5 point favourites and won fairly comfortably by 8 but zig zag theory (which is the theory that a team that won the first game of a series should be half a point or more shorter faves or bigger dogs because of the extra motivation for a team behind in the series) means the line should be 7 this game at least and then Chris Bosh is out.  Bosh is the lesser of the three superstars in Miami but he is very important and because they stretched their salary cap so much the fall off to the squad players is more pronounced than it is for other teams and I would make a two point adjustment for Bosh personally making the correct line 5.  Added to that the Heat are a 'public' team and lines are generally shaded in their favour anyway and theoretically it could be as low as 4.5 and that ties in with our bet laying the Heat for the rings.  Not a massive bet but maybe £50 +7 10/11 with Hills?

Nice call red I actually have Pacers for a nitty +9 for exactly the same reasoning... I Was going to give this to Tikai but favoured the overs on San Antonio...

[superwomble]

League One Play off semi second leg

Huddersfield at 23/20 Wm Hill, 11/10 generally

Huddersfield won the first Leg 2-0 away and according to two friends who went, were vastly superior.

Perhaps they should be, their £20m+ budget compares to £1.5m at the land of the roundabout cows

Huddersfield won't want to muck around tonight, I expect them to go out to win

I was surprised they weren't odds-on before I checked the markets


Statsville:

Huddersfield are unbeaten in their last eight matches against MK Dons, including 5 wins

For MK Dons a first leg deficit has been overturned nine times in the play-off semi-finals at this level in twenty six years; three clubs only have progressed despite being two goals in arrears after the first match

Both were in the play offs last year. MK Dons lost at this stage, their third time of doing so. Huddersfield lost in the final to Peterborough

Recommend

£100 Huddersfield at 23-20 Wm Hill if you can get it

I don't quote that for the purposes of rubs, Rich, but it really did look such a good thing. Everything about it looked right. It lost, 1-2.

The price, as I noted when I placed the bet (which I SO nearly upped to a "MAX"), seemed suspiciously high. They knew something we did not, I guess.

It was still a superb result though

[tikay]

Daily Report at @ 9am, Wednesday 16th May

LOSS on Month £360

Unsettled Bets - £330

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

[tikay]

Daily Round-Up as @ 9am Wednesday 16th May

We can report a PROFIT yesterday!

We had TWO NBA winners yestrrday from TWO NBA bets - extraordinary. Hopfully Basketball has now ended it's horror run of bad results for us, & we can have a few winners.

Ironically, what looked like a really superb bet on Huddersfield in the football never got there.

So, we ended up a tenner on the day. Not brilliant, but it as sure as hell beats losing.

[tikay]

What's coming up today?

Nothing, or nothing yet.

I plan to sit & stare at that tenner we won yesterday.

[the sicilian]

ok Tikay here we go NBA time..

Tonight is Game 1 San Antonio Spurs at Home to La Clippers :

San Antonio are Red hot at the moment and swept past Utah in the last round 4-0.

They have the 2nd most powerful offense in the league and averaged 105.7 points per game at home through the season. There last 7 home games they have averaged an astonishing 113 PPG.

All there stars are fit and well rested. They have probably the deepest bench in the NBA and with the addition of Diaw at starting centre have an answer to the clippers blake griffin.

In their last 14 games home and away only 1 has resulted in a total score less than 192...

La have just come off a tough 7 game series with Memphis and their two stars Griiffin & Paul are a little banged up but still ready to go.

Clippers have an average away PPG of 96..san antonio D is average allowing around 93 at home through the season..bit better with Diaw... with all that i feel LA still good for about 92 and if San Antonio don't score 100+ at home against an average Clippers D there will be something very wrong..

110-91 feels a good score

These two teams met twice in the regular season scores being 103-100 & 108-120.

The total points for the game of over 190.5 at 1.9 looks generous given the above, unless i am missing something...maybe Jaffa Cake can confirm or deny... by the way Jeff forgot to do our bet....doh..


Wiiii Winner..bit disappointed I got the total score wrong by a point...

[the sicilian]

as an aside... having seen the top three for the championship in action i can't have Miami as favourites. I and the thread and jaffa have already laid them and I think I will be maxing the bet.

The Thunder & Spurs are just relentless points machines and even their D's are starting to pick up..particularly the Thunders.

Miami without Bosh looked ordinary and their bench is not deep enough. Apart from game 1 against the Knicks they weren't that impressive against a banged up and not that good new York team. The two games against the pacers have also shown up some offensive flaws.. with lebronde apart the team can go missing scoring wise. only their swarm defence has saved them from further embarrassment. I fear for them when they come up against OKC or the Spurs

[Graham C]

Milligan over on the other degen thread thinks Mypa are worth a few quid at 4.5.  They're away to Honka in the Finnish top league today but we're puzzelled as to the price.  It's a classic 10th against 3rd  (12 team league) clash.  Over thier last 6 home games, Honka have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 scoring 7 times and letting in 6.  The Mighty Mypa are in pretty good shape at the moment having won 5 of their last 6 away and have scored 10 goals letting in 4.     The season is only 6 games old but our Mypa have won 5 of those and lost only 1.    A bad point to the bet is Mypas record against Honka, it's not pretty but at 4.5 we think it's worth a smallish bet, possibly even a draw no bet at around 3.2.

[Snowball]

Milligan over on the other degen thread thinks Mypa are worth a few quid at 4.5.  They're away to Honka in the Finnish top league today but we're puzzelled as to the price.  It's a classic 10th against 3rd  (12 team league) clash.  Over thier last 6 home games, Honka have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 scoring 7 times and letting in 6.  The Mighty Mypa are in pretty good shape at the moment having won 5 of their last 6 away and have scored 10 goals letting in 4.     The season is only 6 games old but our Mypa have won 5 of those and lost only 1.    A bad point to the bet is Mypas record against Honka, it's not pretty but at 4.5 we think it's worth a smallish bet, possibly even a draw no bet at around 3.2.

As said on the othrr thread, be worth waiting to see if Mypa have no problems with their squad first and the price was as big as 4/1 yesterday.