Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Serena out 6-4 6-7 3-6

[TightEnd]

The first time she has lost in the first round of a Grand Slam event, over 47 first round matches

A +2sd event

Click to see full-size image.

[MereNovice]

What happened?

Did we win? Lose? Stab the opponent?

Serena won the first set.
Serena was 5-1 up in the second set tie-break.
Razzano won the tie-break.
Razzano went 5-0 up in the third set while suffering intermittent cramp, we assume.
Razzano was penalised a point on two occasions for crying out in pain while playing her shot (by the same umpire who penalised Serena in the final of the US Open last year causing her to lose the match and a rather unpleasant outburst by Serena).
At no point did Razzano ask for treatment for her cramp.
Serena got it back to 5-3 and the last game went on for ages with Serena having 5 break points and Razzano having 8 match points before winning.

There were probably a few other things that I've missed out but I'm too emotionally drained to recall them.
Remarkable.
I'm very glad I don't bet for a living.

[Tal]

The first time she has lost in the first round of a Grand Slam event, over 47 first round matches

A +2sd event

Click to see full-size image.

Ooh Tight End! Standard Deviation diagrams before the watershed? Positively pornographic!

I bloomin' love this forum!

[tikay]

Even by his standards, Tighty is on fire today.

[The Baron]

I'm a backer or Eden Hazard to score more than 5.5 goals for chelsea next year. Available at VC at 8/11 - already backed in from 5/6.

any thoughts?

My Chelsea man tells me hes in talks so if he does sign obv its a near certainty

Further thoughts...If he does sign I have him at 1-8 minimum to score over 5.5

He converted 9 pens for Lille last season and if Lamps plays less and less you can see him taking them with no obvious replacement.

[tikay]

I'm a backer or Eden Hazard to score more than 5.5 goals for chelsea next year. Available at VC at 8/11 - already backed in from 5/6.

any thoughts?

My Chelsea man tells me hes in talks so if he does sign obv its a near certainty

Further thoughts...If he does sign I have him at 1-8 minimum to score over 5.5

He converted 9 pens for Lille last season and if Lamps plays less and less you can see him taking them with no obvious replacement.

Looks a stone-cold certainty to me, even without pens he presumably scored a dozen last year. The Premiership is tougher, he'll get fewer starts, etc, even so, hard to see him not achieving 6 goals.

I won't be backing it, as I don't much fancy tying up a few hundred quid for 9 months @ odds on, but looks great value to me. I defer, of course, to the football experts as to his abilities, I'm just viewing bare stats.

[Killerkilsby]

May be lacking the great detail others have but was hoping the bet could then be guided by someone with a little more knowledge.

Spain are rock solid favourites to win Euro 2012, therefore correlation would suggest that one of their strikers should be competing for top goalscorer.

Prices from victor chandler for the 3 strikers who made the 23 man squad:

Torres 18/1
Negredo 25/1
Pedro 66/1

Think these prices are huge, depending on who starts with all showing an uplift in form.

Think the outline of the bet is right just need someone with more knowledge to suggest who is likely to start
 

[Josedinho]

You forgot Llorente, i think it's between him and Torres

[tikay]

Hi Killer.

I'm sure you'll get some good feedback on that ( not from me, I know bugger all.....), just give them until sometime tomorrow and you'll be well advised by the chaps who understand the maths of these things.

[tikay]

There you go, feedback from Jose already. He knows his football, too.

[Killerkilsby]

Yes i did, silly thing is i was thinking of Llorente as the main one aswel. Think hes 14/1. Still 14 &18/1 for topgoalscorers for the favourite team should be a good bet for the thread.

[Horneris]

I'm not totally sure but I would guess:

Busquets    
Xabi Alonso    
Xavi    
Iniesta
David Silva
Llorente

Pedro will come on loads too.

[The Camel]

Really doubt Torres will play much at all.

14/1 Llorente looks like a great bet

18/1 Torres looks pants.

[The Baron]

The likesof Negredo, Pedro, Fabregas and Cazorla are more likely subs imo. Torres indeed looks pants. Most of the Spanish press would have taken Soldado not Torres if they had their way.