Tips for Tikay

[Graham C]

Llorente is 19 on Betfair.

[Killerkilsby]

Heard positive things about torres in training, but hes just mot performing so thanks. Looks like £10 on Llorente should be a good bet then at around 19s.

Maybe the thread could get on aswel?

[Doobs]

A bit of a Banzai here.

Power Rock is 150/1 on betfair for the Derby.

He was 3rd in the Ballysax and 2nd in the Derrinstown.

He is probably in as a pacemaker, but looks likely to stay 12 furlongs.  In a weak Derby, with an odds on jolly, then I just have a feeling.  Given Camelot's speed, there is always a reasonable chance he won't stay.

He was clearly pacemaking for Wrote in the Derrinstown, but him and the first pull 7 lengths clear (the first isn't in the Derby).  Wrote went on to finish 4 lengths off the leader in a weak looking Irish 2000.  But Wrote may have killed his chance by going too quick.

His overall form isn't nearly good enough, but there seems a small chance that he is genuinely improving.  He is only 66s with the bookies to deter the each way thieves, so full on proper banzai win only it is.

Anyway the Derrinstown is here.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=793671#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_entries

Don't go crazy, I have only put £15 on myself.

[Josedinho]

Thoughts on Swansea to be relegated at 4/1 with VC?
2nd season in the prem, opponents likely to be better prepared for them this season.
Looks like they could be losing their manager.
One of their first choice CB has gone as he was on loan.
Best price 3/1 elsewhere.

[horseplayer]

Thoughts on Swansea to be relegated at 4/1 with VC?
2nd season in the prem, opponents likely to be better prepared for them this season.
Looks like they could be losing their manager.
One of their first choice CB has gone as he was on loan.
Best price 3/1 elsewhere.

looks about right price to me tying up a permanent deal for one of the best players in the second half of the season was a masterstroke

[Josedinho]

Yeh was going to mention Gylfi. He hasn't signed yet has he? Looks like the deal is nearly done there is one thing that would put him off surely it is a change of manager?

[horseplayer]

http://www.swanseacity.net/page/Latest/0,,10354~2790365,00.html

all agreed presumably he is waiting to make sure rogers stays

[tikay]

Daily Update, as at 0630, Wednesday May 30th

LOSS on Month £660.42

Unsettled Bets £562.50

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 0645, Wednesday May 30th

Our sole settlement yesterday was another loss, being a bet we made a good while back for Serena Wililams in the French Girlies Open.

Her first round defeat was of such magnitude that it made the news summary on Radio 4 this morning as a headline, & Tighty reproduced a standard deviation graph to illustrate the enormity of it.

Fair to say we are not running too hot right now, that was the 10th or 11th thread loser in the last dozen bets.

The month end is tomorrow, so we face a hefty loss this month, our first ever monthly loss. We'll still be in profit, but the graph is heading very much the wrong way.

Must do better.

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Nothing again today, we are in the lull before the Epsom Derby meeting & Euro12 storm.

We placed a few bits & pieces for the future, 2 x SPOTY punts, a Euro12 thing, & a Series bet on the Cricket v South Africa, after the most detailed piece of research I can recall for a goodly while, being by the Official Thread Geek & OCD Representative, Tighty.

Before Euro12 begins (next week) I will detail our portfolio of investments on it.

Some bets were put up last night, by Killer & Doobsy, I'll sort those later this morning, after I've done some work.

[tikay]

And a big hello to Page 500, just 3 months & 3 days after Camel started the thread.

Almost 7,500 Posts, & just shy of 100,000 views, suggesting an average of over 1,000 views per day.

It is now the 6th largest thread by "replies" on blonde.

[scotty2hatty]

In on page 500, no tips though.

[Tractor]

And a big hello to Page 500, just 3 months & 3 days after Camel started the thread.

Almost 7,500 Posts, & just shy of 100,000 views, suggesting an average of over 1,000 views per day.

It is now the 6th largest thread by "replies" on blonde.

One of my fav threads on Blonde, the strange this is I hardly ever place a bet yet find this thread so interesting.
Roll on page 1000

[Simon Galloway]

Wonder if Vince has compiled your spreadsheet by individual tipster P&L ? 

Now we have been running a few months, perhaps a new policy?  Those tipsters that are in profit get their bets put on no-quibble.  Those that are losing badly get restricted - either in terms of double-check by the elders or just in size.

[tikay]

Wonder if Vince has compiled your spreadsheet by individual tipster P&L ? 

Now we have been running a few months, perhaps a new policy?  Those tipsters that are in profit get their bets put on no-quibble.  Those that are losing badly get restricted - either in terms of double-check by the elders or just in size.

Morning Simon, & thanks.

Wonder # 1. Yes, we have always had that on the Spreadsheet - we just don't make it available to view! We have it in basic profit (cash), & in ROI. We felt it would serve no purpose except to embarrass a few people if we published it, & that's not what it is about. It's easy for anyone to work out though.  As to ROI, people like you (VERY few tips) may have a high ROI, but sample size means they are a bit unbalanced.

Wonder # 2. An interesting theory. The problem is "sample size", a really good punter may run bad over a handful of tips, & it'd be out of order to "restrict" or subject them to "special" vetting.  SOME - very few - Tipsters get their tips accepted "blind", because they just "get it", & are very good. The KEY skill is to tip selectively, not everything, & I think most on this thread get that.  I don't want to publish a list of names, as absence may give offence, but as an example, as a general rule, we would back Dubai's tips blind. And yes, he has a high thread ROI. But you knew that already.