Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T's.

A couple of weeks ago we backed Marin Cilic to win Queens. He lost in the 1st round to Matosevic with an abject performance. It really stunk and I am still suspicious about what happened. I put Cilic onto my burgeoning list of players not to trust. Today he plays Jeremy Chardy, who beat Matosevic here in round 2, and I think we should support Chardy. I certainly feel that the odds should be a lot closer.

Suggest £20 Chardy @ 27/10 with betfair but 9/4 or better is OK too.

    Fourth Round Matches / Chardy v Cilic / Match Odds    Jeremy Chardy    Back    38825416291    30-Jun-14
10:00         3.85    20.00       3.85    30-Jun-14 10:06    

[Bad Beat]

 Sorel and Vos were other examples of people with massive chip stacks that the guy tweeting found pictures of. Neither are playing. The One Drop turned out to be great for backers of pretty much anyone who played as it only got 42 players. It also turned out to be terrible for backers and anyone who paid a premium on action with a very pro-heavy field.

 One of my bets Brian Rast started well but is out as is Mercier, Dan Smith and Vanessa Selbst plus some Germans. With Sam has triple average and Ivey double average. Daniel, Phil Galfond, Antonio, Doc Sands and Erik Seidel (who had way the worse table) also going well. My secondary bet Haxton has about average.

 No idea if Ladbrokes plan to price it up but the market on Betfair is going with a little liquidity.

[FUN4FRASER]

Is Mark Vos playing?  I thought he'd disappeared a while ago.  Just happened to havce a million lying around.


I think Tighty got him mixed up with Matt Frankland Cashing  

Cant see the similarity myself  

[TightEnd]

wsop re-tweeted the picture which i used..a fair assumption it would be accurate. it seems not

dan smith was eliminated at the end so we are left with greg merson

this is a good summary

http://www.wsop.com/news/2014/Jun/4916/SAM-TRICKETT-STEAMROLLS-DAY-1-OF-THE-BIG-ONE-FOR-ONE-DROP.html

[Bad Beat]

 Actually read on Twitter a week ago that the Asian businessmen were thinking of boycotting the One Drop and that there might be an alternative big buy-in at a private venue at the same time. Players like Gus, Durrr, Patrick and Andrew Robl maybe felt it was better not to play in order to be available for anything their Macau pals may want to do. Definitely something cost the One Drop about 12 players some of whom had confirmed as playing. Funny that the story did not really and has not come out.

[luther101]

Chompy WSOP ME prop up on live staking      .....     obv treble, with Gerias    ....    Ni & Al!

[Chompy]

Chompy WSOP ME prop up on live staking      .....     obv treble, with Gerias    ....    Ni & Al!

Thewy sold out in 4.7seconds

[Nico29]

Lisicki weighed in.

[TightEnd]

Lisicki weighed in.

Well done

nice rain break that at 2-5 in the second set

came back and won 7 games out of 9!

[scotty2hatty]

Isner plays Lopez tomorrow in the third round

Lopez who had a match point to win Queens, hasn't lost a set so far, 4 of his 6 sets at Wimbledon this year have been tie-breaks. in great grass court form and a fav to beat Isner despite being 15 spots lower in the seedings

Isner is a huge serving (comparatively poorly returning) player, who also hasn't lost a set and two of his six sets have gone to breakers

At 13 games a set maximum the game make up for this game should comfortably exceed 40, could possibly go 5 sets. waiting for a betfair market to form to see how high the quote is for overs/unders


not sure first set tie break should be an underdog http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/feliciano-lopez-v-john-isner/first-set-tie-break

think dutching 3-2 either way might be profitable too 11/2 and 5/1, Lopez 3-2 the lower price

or 5 sets here http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/feliciano-lopez-v-john-isner/total-sets


am not a regular tennis bettor, so perhaps someone more experienced can run an eye over these prices for this type of game for me

This was good

[TightEnd]

Close to getting the lot

6-7 7-6 7-6 7-5 made 51 games, needed the fifth set!

Isner is bottom on the whole ATP tour for breaks, 9% of his return games only.

Lopez is in great form, good to watch and is in Federer's quarter.

[simonnatur]

7.45 Ffos Las    Greyemkay 7-1 Paddy Power/Coral - C&D winner, Oisin Murphy up top, fav short priced for it's achievements to date, decent e/w terms....

Whats not to like?

[Bad Beat]

 Not saying I hate it but that horse was 14/1 earlier. How wrong could the price have been?

 (just an interesting point really. I frequently bet things at 8/1 that I could have had at 16/1 earlier. You just need to have the mindset to look at an event and work out what price you consider value and ignore what happened before).

[TightEnd]

Hummels has the flu, which means the German full backs (with Boeteng moving inside) are Howedes left back (central defender, turning circle of an oil tanker) who i think has looked vulnerable every game and Mustafi at right back. Mustafi is another centre back, the player called up into the squad when Reus was injured

not saying Algeria will win or anything like that but if they go with the approach to have a go (as per the S Korea game) their attacking midfielders can definitely cause the German back four problems, possibly on the counter

i like the Germany team but its pretty clear that lack of pace at the back is the potential problem, and Hummels was by far their best defender for recovery speed

the quick wide player Djabou is worth a look, c12-13 anytime on betfair, 10-1 best fixed with 888

waiting for their team news

[TightEnd]

7.45 Ffos Las    Greyemkay 7-1 Paddy Power/Coral - C&D winner, Oisin Murphy up top, fav short priced for it's achievements to date, decent e/w terms....

Whats not to like?

hi the best is now 6-1. i have no knowledge, but 16-1 into 6-1 looks like i have missed the boat?

keep them coming, i will be less tardy next time