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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 14851806 times)
doubleup
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Posts: 7100
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82710 on:
July 14, 2014, 03:42:49 PM »
Quote from: scotty2hatty on July 14, 2014, 03:11:16 PM
Quote from: simonnatur on July 14, 2014, 02:45:21 PM
Picked up a copy of Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch, nearly through it now. If any of the elders/regular contributors would like it when I'm done pls pm me your address and I'll pop it in the post.
Interested me by the way that he describes pressing hard and upping his bets in weeks when he felt "In form" - is there any such thing in gambling , does anyone subscribe to this?
In a sense I do. I mostly only bet on greyhound racing which a huge part of is trying to decipher the race and sometimes I'm better at reading the race than at other times.
"In form" could also be a mental thing. Having the desire to study races in more depth etc could mean you are in form, albeit mental form.
To conclude - I'm not sure
not sure about form but if you have an edge you should increase your bets if your bankroll increases. Many people do the opposite and don't want to risk money they have won but bizarrely want to increase bets when they lose. It's called "loss aversion" and is a type of "cognitive bias"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias
Doobs and Adz should pay particular attention to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge
and for pointing that out I should prob consider
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_blind_spot
«
Last Edit: July 14, 2014, 03:51:14 PM by doubleup
»
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Doobs
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Posts: 16668
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82711 on:
July 14, 2014, 04:24:55 PM »
Quote from: doubleup on July 14, 2014, 03:42:49 PM
Quote from: scotty2hatty on July 14, 2014, 03:11:16 PM
Quote from: simonnatur on July 14, 2014, 02:45:21 PM
Picked up a copy of Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch, nearly through it now. If any of the elders/regular contributors would like it when I'm done pls pm me your address and I'll pop it in the post.
Interested me by the way that he describes pressing hard and upping his bets in weeks when he felt "In form" - is there any such thing in gambling , does anyone subscribe to this?
In a sense I do. I mostly only bet on greyhound racing which a huge part of is trying to decipher the race and sometimes I'm better at reading the race than at other times.
"In form" could also be a mental thing. Having the desire to study races in more depth etc could mean you are in form, albeit mental form.
To conclude - I'm not sure
not sure about form but if you have an edge you should increase your bets if your bankroll increases. Many people do the opposite and don't want to risk money they have won but bizarrely want to increase bets when they lose. It's called "loss aversion" and is a type of "cognitive bias"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias
Doobs and Adz should pay particular attention to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge
and for pointing that out I should prob consider
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_blind_spot
I don't think what you have described is "loss aversion". Most people are risk averse so they dislike losing £100 more than winning £100. People who are risk averse would naturally reduce stakes when they lose. A few people are the opposite and risk takers, those are the people who are likely to increase stakes when they lose. I expect we have a higher proportion of those here than in the general population.
I do what Adz does and don't mind dropping stakes, though probably not as quick as I should. I am almost certainly a bigger risk taker than average.
On the teaching thing, it is always hard to get the right level. You can't ever get the right level for everyone on a forum though.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Tonji
They got a name for all the winners in the world. I want a name when I lose.
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Posts: 5586
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82712 on:
July 14, 2014, 05:38:09 PM »
Solid if somewhat defensive ride from Valverde. Still up to 3rd & no accidents. Good news.
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They got a name for all the winners in the world. I want a name when I lose.
TL900
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Posts: 2448
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82713 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:05:58 PM »
Is there anywhere that offers premier league goals season match bets? Im looking to bet RVP more goals than Sturridge this season.
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
Tal
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Posts: 24354
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82714 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:08:34 PM »
Contador fractured his tibia (shinbone) in the crash, then got up and carried on for quite a while, trying to catch the peleton.
So, basically, he decided he wasn't going to give up on the Tour de France just because he'd got a broken leg.
As you do.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82715 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:24:41 PM »
Quote from: TL900 on July 14, 2014, 06:05:58 PM
Is there anywhere that offers premier league goals season match bets? Im looking to bet RVP more goals than Sturridge this season.
Happy to offer you 8/11 RVP if you are interested and can't find the match bet elsewhere closer to the start of the season. I am very bullish on Sturridge this season and happy to have the other side of your bet.
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TL900
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Posts: 2448
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82716 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:28:15 PM »
Quote from: arbboy on July 14, 2014, 06:24:41 PM
Quote from: TL900 on July 14, 2014, 06:05:58 PM
Is there anywhere that offers premier league goals season match bets? Im looking to bet RVP more goals than Sturridge this season.
Happy to offer you 8/11 RVP if you are interested and can't find the match bet elsewhere closer to the start of the season. I am very bullish on Sturridge this season and happy to have the other side of your bet.
will let u know, thanks for the offer.
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
Bad Beat
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Posts: 1187
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82717 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:38:21 PM »
Was just chatting to a Fred legend...Dubai. We both noticed a good bet on the poker WSOP. Last time we both noticed a good bet on the poker WSOP we both did our bollocks (on the One Drop).
Quick case...
There are 27 left in the main event and the really strong players are...Jorryt Van Hoof (exceptionally strong Dutch player, not well known as avoids tournaments for tax reasons), Dan Smith (they call him King Dan for a reason, excels in the Super High Rollers), Martin Jacobson (has lots of experience in the Super High Rollers and is an excellent player).
I think these three have a massive advantage and if all are 26/1 with an average stack I would make these guys at least 14/1 with that same average stack.
There are around ten who are pretty strong professionals, certainly well above the average player in any main event and against 26 randoms with an average stack these guys might be 18/1 or 20/1. "Our boys" Iaron and Craig fit in here.
There are then 14 players who vary from average to poor and who would be between 25/1 and 50/1 with an average stack.
If you think in those terms and then adjust the prices for the relative stacks you can find one standout bet with Ladbrokes.
Martin Jacobson has three times the average. Even if you think poker is fairly random and he only has a small edge over the field you would still have to make him 20/1 with an average stack in a 27-runner field, triple the 5% that 20/1 represents as he has triple chips and you get 15% or 11/2. I personally would not lay that and think he'll win from here about 20% of the time.
Ladbrokes are 8/1. I think it's massive. A "normal" account or a shop customer can get £1250. Even the restricted can get £125.
Punish.
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TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82718 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:45:51 PM »
8/1
Martin Jacobson
2014 World Series of Poker Main Event
Singles - Tournament Winner
1 line @ £125.00 per line
Total Stake £125.00
Potential Return £1125.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000637
2014 World Series of Poker Main Event
I tried for more, but was maxxed
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82719 on:
July 14, 2014, 06:52:35 PM »
that didn't last long!
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Tal
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Posts: 24354
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82720 on:
July 14, 2014, 07:07:13 PM »
Views on laying Nibali at 1.24 on betfair?
Long way to go, yet, and teams must be sensing the chance for more than just podiumviating.
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
Peter-27
Hero Member
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Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82721 on:
July 14, 2014, 07:44:16 PM »
Quote from: Bad Beat on July 14, 2014, 06:38:21 PM
Was just chatting to a Fred legend...Dubai. We both noticed a good bet on the poker WSOP. Last time we both noticed a good bet on the poker WSOP we both did our bollocks (on the One Drop).
Quick case...
There are 27 left in the main event and the really strong players are...Jorryt Van Hoof (exceptionally strong Dutch player, not well known as avoids tournaments for tax reasons), Dan Smith (they call him King Dan for a reason, excels in the Super High Rollers), Martin Jacobson (has lots of experience in the Super High Rollers and is an excellent player).
I think these three have a massive advantage and if all are 26/1 with an average stack I would make these guys at least 14/1 with that same average stack.
There are around ten who are pretty strong professionals, certainly well above the average player in any main event and against 26 randoms with an average stack these guys might be 18/1 or 20/1. "Our boys" Iaron and Craig fit in here.
There are then 14 players who vary from average to poor and who would be between 25/1 and 50/1 with an average stack.
If you think in those terms and then adjust the prices for the relative stacks you can find one standout bet with Ladbrokes.
Martin Jacobson has three times the average. Even if you think poker is fairly random and he only has a small edge over the field you would still have to make him 20/1 with an average stack in a 27-runner field, triple the 5% that 20/1 represents as he has triple chips and you get 15% or 11/2. I personally would not lay that and think he'll win from here about 20% of the time.
Ladbrokes are 8/1. I think it's massive. A "normal" account or a shop customer can get £1250. Even the restricted can get £125.
Punish.
In your opinion, what is the lowest price we should take? The best I can find right now is 5/1.
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arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82722 on:
July 14, 2014, 08:12:16 PM »
http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/romford/19:58/winner
Coral gone nuts on this race. 3/1 Sinbad is max bet material if you can get it.
Just posted this on dog thread. They are betting the race to 83% no idea what is going on.
http://sports.coral.co.uk/greyhounds/today/romford/7:58-romford-1846438.html
«
Last Edit: July 14, 2014, 08:14:50 PM by arbboy
»
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arbboy
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Posts: 13285
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82723 on:
July 14, 2014, 08:22:51 PM »
hoses up 11/8 sp. Did anyone get the 3/1 at coral and get paid?
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Peter-27
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Posts: 1550
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #82724 on:
July 14, 2014, 08:26:46 PM »
Quote from: arbboy on July 14, 2014, 08:22:51 PM
hoses up 11/8 sp. Did anyone get the 3/1 at coral and get paid?
I saw your tip but by the time I went to place it, the price changed to 6/4. Still got £10 on though so thanks for the tip :-)
«
Last Edit: July 14, 2014, 08:36:29 PM by Peter-27
»
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