Tips for Tikay

[jakally]

My first shot at a Tip for Teeeeks.
This looks like value to me, but I'm a sports betting fish, therefore happy to be told otherwise.

Have been following Total Number Of Corner bets, in the Euros, and like the overs in the 2nd round matches.

Out of 8 matches to date, we have had a total of 80 corners, at an average of 10.0, with 5 matches 9 or less, and 3 over 11.

At Euro 2008, for the first round of group matches ave was 9.4, with 4 matches at 9 or less, 2 at 10/11, and 2 at over 11.
The second round of matches produced 105 corners, at an ave of 13.1, with 2 matches at 9 or below, 1 at 10/11, and 5 over 11.
(The final set of matches had 70 corners, at an ave of 8.7, with 6 @ 9 or less).

Clearly this reinforces the theory that the 1st round of matches are approached reasonably conservatively, and that teams have a greater desire to win the 2nd round.
No team can confidently lock up for a draw, and all of them really want a win ahead of the final game.

I am on for a max bet over 11 at 11/5 Greece/Czech Rep, and 1/2 max for Poland/Russia @ 15/8, same bet, both with Skybet.
As you don't do SkyBet, I think Bet 365 or BetVictor at 5/4 over 10 (Greece Game) and Bet365 13/5 (Poland game), or BWin over 11.5 @ 9/5, for the Greece game, and 17/11 over 11.5 for the Poland game and  still gives some value.

Will bet some of the other matches, but will avoid some - Spain playing keep-ball makes corners less likely, and Croatia and Italy both had low corner counts in their first matches, and play each other next.

[MereNovice]

Love the statistics and reasoning.

[henrik777]

A strong offensive team going behind to a defensive/weak team is usually a great spot to get on corners in running especially in the 2nd half.

Sandy

[tikay]

Good afternoon. (Post meditation).

Time issues here, working tonight, & that may be an increasing problem whilst in Vegas, so I'm going to be using, from time to time, abbreviated "Accepts" of bets.

Stand by for tonight's thread bets so far.....

 

[TightEnd]

My first shot at a Tip for Teeeeks.
This looks like value to me, but I'm a sports betting fish, therefore happy to be told otherwise.

Have been following Total Number Of Corner bets, in the Euros, and like the overs in the 2nd round matches.

Out of 8 matches to date, we have had a total of 80 corners, at an average of 10.0, with 5 matches 9 or less, and 3 over 11.

At Euro 2008, for the first round of group matches ave was 9.4, with 4 matches at 9 or less, 2 at 10/11, and 2 at over 11.
The second round of matches produced 105 corners, at an ave of 13.1, with 2 matches at 9 or below, 1 at 10/11, and 5 over 11.
(The final set of matches had 70 corners, at an ave of 8.7, with 6 @ 9 or less).

Clearly this reinforces the theory that the 1st round of matches are approached reasonably conservatively, and that teams have a greater desire to win the 2nd round.
No team can confidently lock up for a draw, and all of them really want a win ahead of the final game.

I am on for a max bet over 11 at 11/5 Greece/Czech Rep, and 1/2 max for Poland/Russia @ 15/8, same bet, both with Skybet.
As you don't do SkyBet, I think Bet 365 or BetVictor at 5/4 over 10 (Greece Game) and Bet365 13/5 (Poland game), or BWin over 11.5 @ 9/5, for the Greece game, and 17/11 over 11.5 for the Poland game and  still gives some value.

Will bet some of the other matches, but will avoid some - Spain playing keep-ball makes corners less likely, and Croatia and Italy both had low corner counts in their first matches, and play each other next.

where have you been? Excellent stuff! (hopefully)

[tikay]

Goals, over 2.5, Greece v Chech. £70 @ 6/4, StanJames. redarmi. It woz the Kelly Calculator wot did it.

ON
_________________

Most Cards, Greece, £50 @ 4/5, BWin, superwomble. Logic seems spot on.

ON
________________

Corners, Greece, over 10, £100 @ 5/4, BetVictor, JAKALLY. Maiden Thread Bet, Help The Aged.

ON
_______________

Corners, Poland, over 11.5, £60 @ 31/20, BWin, JAKALLY. Can't think of any justification for this bet, except to mock him. To be fair, brilliant research & analysis.

ON
______________


Poland v Russia, Russia DNB, £50 @ 7/10, SportingBet. FRASER. Strong claims for & against this, but I thought Russia were pretty good last time, & morale is high.

ON
____________ 


NB - All bets can be "proofed" to MereAuditor.

 

[tikay]

Good luck all!

I'll be working, but can follow from time to time on i-Pad, so if someone can keep the thread updated with running results/latest situations, that'd be neat.

[superwomble]

Greece v Czechs over 2.5 goals looking good - Czechs 2 up after 6 minutes!

[smashedagain]

Really like the sort of tips that come with a lot of thought and reasoning and hope Neil's corner tip gets the result his work deserves despite him being a virgin. Gl sir

Those with considerable knowledge like Jaffacake are +EV and should be encouraged to post instead of shot. I understand what Gatso is saying but the written word often comes across a lot harsher than intended.  And on the plus side Tikay doesn't have to wade through a load of dirt to find the little gems.

[MereNovice]

Half-time.

Greece 0 Czech Rep. 2
Corners 3
The Czechs have acquired two bookings to one.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18137833

[nirvana]

tbf, the mildest of contrary views seems to get a few people flouncing around like big bubbas.

Like questioning any 'expert' I guess

Cue flounces (with luck)

x

[horseplayer]

that is a bit harsh imo

it seems some posters can post stats that are not allowed to be questioned or if they are questioned then there is a furore for a few minutes.

Somebody could be a brilliant judge but it doesnt mean the stats provided are correct

[peejaytwo]

My first shot at a Tip for Teeeeks.
This looks like value to me, but I'm a sports betting fish, therefore happy to be told otherwise.

Have been following Total Number Of Corner bets, in the Euros, and like the overs in the 2nd round matches.

Out of 8 matches to date, we have had a total of 80 corners, at an average of 10.0, with 5 matches 9 or less, and 3 over 11.

At Euro 2008, for the first round of group matches ave was 9.4, with 4 matches at 9 or less, 2 at 10/11, and 2 at over 11.
The second round of matches produced 105 corners, at an ave of 13.1, with 2 matches at 9 or below, 1 at 10/11, and 5 over 11.
(The final set of matches had 70 corners, at an ave of 8.7, with 6 @ 9 or less).

Clearly this reinforces the theory that the 1st round of matches are approached reasonably conservatively, and that teams have a greater desire to win the 2nd round.
No team can confidently lock up for a draw, and all of them really want a win ahead of the final game.

I am on for a max bet over 11 at 11/5 Greece/Czech Rep, and 1/2 max for Poland/Russia @ 15/8, same bet, both with Skybet.
As you don't do SkyBet, I think Bet 365 or BetVictor at 5/4 over 10 (Greece Game) and Bet365 13/5 (Poland game), or BWin over 11.5 @ 9/5, for the Greece game, and 17/11 over 11.5 for the Poland game and  still gives some value.

Will bet some of the other matches, but will avoid some - Spain playing keep-ball makes corners less likely, and Croatia and Italy both had low corner counts in their first matches, and play each other next.

well researched and thought out,but if you can get more than a tenner on with Slybet you really are a sports betting fish!

[TightEnd]

Well done redarmi, overs in after an hour

[MereNovice]

Greece ahead 3-2 on bookings.