Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Berdych 3-0 against Hewitt

Should be straight forward, Berdych has only dropped 9 games in the last 5 matches in the first round of grand slams and Hewitt hasn't won a match in any grand slam for 4 years now

Form is all with Berdych as well, the last 3 weeks his 1st serves have been averaging just 7mph less than the world record fastest serve, and returning isn't one of Hewitt's strengths anyway.

Berdych just needs to find a single break each set and the way Hewitt has been playing shouldn't be hard for him, even Fognini breezed past Hewitt in his last match.

Best odds exchange
£3000

Is Berdych really in good form?  Lost to Lu in Cincinatti, lost to Lopez in Toronto, lost to Pospisil in Washington (all matches he would have been strong favourite for).  Also had an underwhelming grass court season.  I agree Hewitt looks out of nick, but I wouldn't like to call what sort of Berdych will show up.

[Waz1892]

Any thoughts on Tuesday

MK dons home to man utd. 8/1 (BV/Lads)

Man utd play today, so very likely to have very few if any starters today playing on Tuesday.  With the squad not at its greatest in recent times plenty of kids playing on Tuesday.

The confidence at the club isnt great as we know. MK solid enough team and the crowd will be out smelling a good scalp

http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/28854666

So far, 4 games 2-1-1, last two games 2 clean sheets

Thanks.

Feels like a bit of a mickey mouse game, & we have no idea how seriously they might take it. Not sure I like these sort of games & this time of season as a betting medium. Think it takes until September earliest before we can start discerning value.

Happy to get on if warmth though, obv.

Tell you what, if Tighty's DR says we made more than £500 yesterday, we'll do it.

Waz is too much of a Gent to mention it, but I will.

I blame Tighty for us not getting on.

Well done Wazzy, hope you had a nice bet. 

Thanks Tikay. It was a shame tighty didnt mis-type the report to show £500!. Too much of a pro though.

We did OK, sure i wasnt the only one.

I here some lucky people out there actually backed 4-0! How!!?

[tikay]

With the Orioles beating the Rays 4-2, they are now back 7 games clear in the AL East with now 32 games to go

Orioles now 1/8.

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner


We have a £25 Free Bet @ 9/1, + £25 @ 12/1.

The Royals are now 11/10 to win AL Central, we have £20 @ 11/2.

The Royals are 10/1 to win AL Outright, we have £10 @ 18/1.



Great stuff, these are such great bets Rich, & I hope plenty others are on. 


We also have £110 @ 10/11, Yankees UNDER 86.5 wins. Think that's the close one.

[TightEnd]

With the Orioles beating the Rays 4-2, they are now back 7 games clear in the AL East with now 32 games to go

Orioles now 1/8.

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner


We have a £25 Free Bet @ 9/1, + £25 @ 12/1.

The Royals are now 11/10 to win AL Central, we have £20 @ 11/2.

The Royals are 10/1 to win AL Outright, we have £10 @ 18/1.



Great stuff, these are such great bets Rich, & I hope plenty others are on. 


We also have £110 @ 10/11, Yankees UNDER 86.5 wins. Think that's the close one.

The Royals division bet is a cliffhanger too

they are 1.5 games clear of the Tigers with 30 odd games to go

but in those 30 games have to play the Tigers six times, 3 each home and away

to put it into context though, in terms of payroll and budget its like West Brom leading Man City in the premier league at the top of the league at the beginning of April....

The Royals haven't made the play-offs since the 1980s, the longest run without success of any of the MLB teams.

Typically run on a shoestring in a small market, developing players, trading them on instead of offering them the second, lucrative contract them doing the same again (MLB playing budgets form off the back of regional TV deals, and the Royals' one in the midwest is tiny compared to teams on the east and west coast)

Although we are obviously a long way away from any of it, and there's no mainstream coverage of the MLB over here compared to say the NFL with five live games a week from next weekend I gather the excitement across Missouri is at fever pitch. 

[TightEnd]

Berdych 3-0 against Hewitt

Should be straight forward, Berdych has only dropped 9 games in the last 5 matches in the first round of grand slams and Hewitt hasn't won a match in any grand slam for 4 years now

Form is all with Berdych as well, the last 3 weeks his 1st serves have been averaging just 7mph less than the world record fastest serve, and returning isn't one of Hewitt's strengths anyway.

Berdych just needs to find a single break each set and the way Hewitt has been playing shouldn't be hard for him, even Fognini breezed past Hewitt in his last match.

Best odds exchange
£3000

ok, i went and looked at this

leaving aside the stats boo-boo, and that no suggested price is quoted

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens/tomas-berdych-v-lleyton-hewitt/set-betting

i thought just north of evens was quite tight for straight sets

recent form

- Berdych failed to go past the third round in Wimbledon and then went 2-3 in the US Open Series. He is coming off consecutive losses to Feliciano Lopez in Toronto and to Yen-Hsun Lu in the opening round of the Western & Southern Open.

- Hewitt went 2-3 in the US Open series over the past month. He reached the second round in Washington and Cincinnati but lost in his opening match in Toronto to Julien Benneteau.

looking to Hewitt's performances against big servers from mid 2014, this being a crux of the argument (hewitt poor returner, berdych booming them down)

-Hewitt won the ATP Hall of Fame Tennis Championships in July beating Karlovic in the final 6-3, 6-7 (4-7), 7-6 (7-3)

- At Wimbledon, against Janowicz he lost in 5 5-7, 4-6, 7-6 (9-7), 6-4, 3-6

- Now obviously Berdych is a better player than these two

- "returning isn't one of Hewitt's strength's anyway" where does that come from? As a smaller player it is his key strength i would suggest

to quote from a report post Janowicz defeat

"Hewitt will be remembered as one of the great returners"

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/lleyton-hewitt-loses-in-a-gallant-five-sets-to-jerzy-janowicz-at-wimbledon-20140628-zsp5y.html#ixzz3BaA4WKf2

- the US Open is where he has the best grand slam record. leaving aside the win, three semis and two quarters as being too long ago to matter, he's made the third and fourth round in the last two years

- of course he's 33, near the end of his career and a big underdog, but the points above are why i wasn't that thrilled about taking just above evens him to lose in straight sets

[TightEnd]

BBC Sport ‏@BBCSport 17m

Steve Clarke & Neil Warnock the only contenders for Crystal Palace manager's job - set to be announced today


which do we Crystal Palace bulls prefer?

[tikay]

With the Orioles beating the Rays 4-2, they are now back 7 games clear in the AL East with now 32 games to go

Orioles now 1/8.

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner


We have a £25 Free Bet @ 9/1, + £25 @ 12/1.

The Royals are now 11/10 to win AL Central, we have £20 @ 11/2.

The Royals are 10/1 to win AL Outright, we have £10 @ 18/1.



Great stuff, these are such great bets Rich, & I hope plenty others are on. 


We also have £110 @ 10/11, Yankees UNDER 86.5 wins. Think that's the close one.

The Royals division bet is a cliffhanger too

they are 1.5 games clear of the Tigers with 30 odd games to go

but in those 30 games have to play the Tigers six times, 3 each home and away

to put it into context though, in terms of payroll and budget its like West Brom leading Man City in the premier league at the top of the league at the beginning of April....

The Royals haven't made the play-offs since the 1980s, the longest run without success of any of the MLB teams.

Typically run on a shoestring in a small market, developing players, trading them on instead of offering them the second, lucrative contract them doing the same again (MLB playing budgets form off the back of regional TV deals, and the Royals' one in the midwest is tiny compared to teams on the east and west coast)

Although we are obviously a long way away from any of it, and there's no mainstream coverage of the MLB over here compared to say the NFL with five live games a week from next weekend I gather the excitement across Missouri is at fever pitch. 

Love all that background stuff.

We might lose the lot, of course, but it matters not, ego apart, as I read again & again from the Pros that all we have to do is keep making "good" bets, by definition, beating the market, & let the results take care of themselves.

And a £25 Free Bet @ 9/1 on what is now a 1/8 shot must be the nut best use of a Free Bet.

All good, whatever happens.

We are stuck a whopping £700 & counting in August, but it's one of those things, I don't think we've done too much wrong. 

[TightEnd]

31 Aug 2014 - Strictly Come Dancing 2014 - Outright - Outright
Tip It

Thom Evans @ 8/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
90.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001090/


I was sceptical as i think we only know 8 of the contestants, but then i spotted this

Zoe Ball ‏@ZoeTheBall 7m

Oh my my. Thom Evans. Prepare to fall in love people @bbcstrictly

by which i take it she means

Click to see full-size image.

and equivalents

I was also not aware until today of his association with Kelly Beard

Click to see full-size image.

anyway, i expect he will appeal to a big voting constituency

Now lets hope he can samba

[TightEnd]

I think we still have a Hills bet to use sharpish.  I can't get great internet where I am, but think Adam Scott is top priced at 12/1 for the Deutsche golf.  Suggest bunging it there.   Am not going to be able to take part in any discussion.

there is no free bet showing (taghrooda finished 2nd 6 days ago), so i need to send tikay into battle

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

A strategy I like to use in tennis betting is to look to oppose players who finalled the previous weeks tournament. Playing for 5 straight days is hard and yet it seems the bookies price these players up shorter than they should be under the impression that the players are obviously in form. In last weeks tournament Rosol beat Janowicz in a competitive 3 set final. After looking at both of their US open opponents I decided to oppose both of them in the 1st round, and yesterday Rosol lost to a 17 year old in straight sets, who was priced at 4-1.

Later today Janowicz plays Dusan Lajovic, a player he has a 2-0 losing record against. Probably the most relevant piece of form is that Lajovic lost to Rosol this year on a hard court in 3 close sets, which is a similar level to Janowicz. So taking into account the tiredness factor and the 5-2 odds make Lajovic a decent bet.

Suggest £20 Lajovic @ 5-2 with victor. Corals or Hills.

D.Lajovic 5/2 J.Janowicz v D.Lajovic - 27/08/2014
Stake £20.00

Coral

placed

[GlennDuskTillDawn]

Time to lump on Palace to go down?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28951487

Chin up Palace fans.

Can we have Dwight back?

[Ant040689]

Not convinced it's a poor appointment. Really interested on what he is going to do. Would be very surprised if he doesn't see past what I see as a very poor Brede Hangeland. Went to Walsall yesterday and he was having clear trouble at times.

[Dubai]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/leicester-v-man-utd/winner

Some stale lads prices. Arsenal are obv slightly better than Man U and play Leicester this weekend and are 4/5, Leicester 4/1.

Recommend maxes on Leicester at 5/1, Leicester +1 at 6/4 Leicester draw no bet at 19/5, all with lads

Your max will be £50 £25 £50 I think

[Dubai]

And Leicester and draw in double chance at 29/20- max will be £69 on this.


Can always trade out later if we wanted

[Killerkilsby]

And Leicester and draw in double chance at 29/20- max will be £69 on this.


Can always trade out later if we wanted

What happens to the price if/when Leicester get a good smashing this weekend?