Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Is the cycling bet still alive?

cheers

[horseplayer]

Looks like the sponsors or somebody has been putting the pressure on the COC overnight

[Doobs]

Looks like the sponsors or somebody has been putting the pressure on the COC overnight

Roger Varian has been putting a lot of PR work in to trying to get him to water.  It will be ridiculous when the round bit is still good to soft for a flat race.  Can't see him getting many supporters here, so no point in carrying on the argument.

[horseplayer]

A great example is what happened at Chepstow yesterday

Advertised as good to firm as they had watered all night and most of the morning the ground was being cut up and loose.

Ed de Giles Racing ‏@EddeGilesRacing  2m
Not going to keep making excuses for shingle but the ground @Chepstow_Racing was not as described! Times & jockeys confirmed. Taps left on!!

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £172.51

Outstanding Bets £4705.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A loss of £35 yesterday as the USA beat Lithuania 96-68 in the Basketball world cup semi

- £10 Lithuania outright

- £25 Lithuania w/o US and Spain, sunk when Spain failed to beat France in the quarters

We have £50 at 7/10 USA running for the final, now 1/15, and £20 at 5-1 Harden MVP. Harden was a top scorer in the semi-final

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-6 on Thursday night football. Never easy to be the away team playing on a short week. Still early days, but disappointing for the Steelers nonetheless. This was the 24th time in 27 meetings between these bitter rivals that points went under the spread....time to lower the spreads...time for me to remember to back the unders, which i didn't

Click to see full-size image.

In the MLB the Yankees hit a walk off home run to beat the Rays 5-4

Click to see full-size image.

The Royals returned home and lost 6-3 to the Red Sox, which is a frustrating one. Sould reverse that tonight behind the excellent rookie pitcher Yordano Ventura, who throws fireballs (allow me a bit of poetic licence), here's our man



There are three stages left in the Vuelta, including two mountain stages but our 400-1 man does not seem to be figuring. A gentleman called Sanchez Luis-Leon currently trading at 1.01 to win the king of the mountains

For the St Leger

Doncaster's MD, Monday: "There'll be no more watering"
Roger Varian, yesterday: "If they don't water they risk non-participation of the favourite"

For Indyref, the You gov poll last night



Some snippets from the poll

- By 45% to 21% those Scots voters sampled by YouGov thought independence would make them poorer not richer. 6 days ago gap was 37% to 23%
- Just 4% now say they have yet to make up their minds, down from 6 % at the weekend and 8 % at the start of the month
- 42% of women are "Yes", down 5% since w/end. 49% think they would be worse off, up 10% since weekend
- "Yes" only ahead in one age group - 25 to 39 year olds. All others - inc 16 to 24 year olds - backing Scotland to remain
- Alex Salmond's trust ratings down 4% since Sept 5; 42% to 38%. Gordon Brown’s trust ratings up 3% – from 32% to 35%.

All of which is re-assuring news for our major position 45-50% Yes vote which is hovering around 6/4 and we are on at 7/2 down



 

[Marky147]

Nice one Tighty, and go on you Royals!!


As for Varian... He let the horse run in the Eclipse & the Guineas, so I don't see what the problem is, and hopefully CoC tells him to whistle!

[horseplayer]

Run three times this season

Two runs times suggest ground was good to firm other run good

So exactly what it will be by Saturday then, its not Frankel its a slogger

[doubleup]

The address of the UK ltd company is as you would expect just a brass plate outfit.

Click to see full-size image.

And the Companies House entry is uninformative.

Click to see full-size image.

Its not just a brass plate.  They have an office in the UK.....unless all my mates that work there that I have met for a beer in London were just coming to see the brass plate that is....

It is the agents that are the problem.  If you get a lot of your custom through agents then paying a POC is impossible when you only get 20-30% of the action in some cases but are paying POC on the full amount.  The agents arent going to pay it because they are not licensed.  I guess firms like Asian Connect may try and offer a way around that but it becomes very dodgy imo and Pinny went down that route with the US and it didn't end well (indictments etc) so I doubt they would be keen to allow it again.

The tax only applies to UK residents - surely they can get by without using agents in the UK?  I think that the grey market issue is more likely the problem.

[tikay]

The address of the UK ltd company is as you would expect just a brass plate outfit.

Click to see full-size image.

And the Companies House entry is uninformative.

Click to see full-size image.

Its not just a brass plate.  They have an office in the UK.....unless all my mates that work there that I have met for a beer in London were just coming to see the brass plate that is....

It is the agents that are the problem.  If you get a lot of your custom through agents then paying a POC is impossible when you only get 20-30% of the action in some cases but are paying POC on the full amount.  The agents arent going to pay it because they are not licensed.  I guess firms like Asian Connect may try and offer a way around that but it becomes very dodgy imo and Pinny went down that route with the US and it didn't end well (indictments etc) so I doubt they would be keen to allow it again.

The tax only applies to UK residents - surely they can get by without using agents in the UK?  I think that the grey market issue is more likely the problem.

Correct, that is the main problem.

[Bazzaboy]

I'm taking on a Matchroom fighter again this weekend (I'll get one beaten eventually). Fast Eddie is trying to manoeuvre Anthony Crolla in to getting a world title shot in much the same way as he did with Brian Rose. Crolla, like Rose is nowhere near world level and will get well and truly found out if he gets a shot. Before then he has to get past Gamaliel Diaz a Mexican veteran who may have seen better days but was still capable of going to Japan and winning the WBC featherweight title in Japan which is light years ahead of anything Crolla has done.

Crolla obviously has home advantage but Diaz has travelled abroad as a dog before and won. Crolla hasn't shown anything to suggest he much better than domestic level and is very short here against an experienced fighter who has operated in and around world level for many years. Recommend £30 on Diaz at 11/2 with BV

[horseplayer]

Really suggest reading this

http://scoreboardjournalism.wordpress.com/2014/09/11/predicting-the-premier-league/

[horseplayer]

Never need an excuse to post this again, wonder what Thommo thinks about the ground?



are you well?

[TightEnd]

Can anybody compare the odds that hull had at the start of the seasons compared to now? In terms of handicap odds.

I actually really liked their summer activity. Diame, Ben arfa and Ramirez could play for any team in the premiership of they were managed well and I feel Brucey gets that. Livermore and huddlestone have given them a little bit of a base in midfield and the new signing seems like a goalscorer.

I really like the look of them this season, would their odds have changed in the West ham game much compared to 2 weeks ago?

Obviously I'm saying this because they were in Europe and now they are not and that would have been in the price initially for a lot of their base prices and their squad was really thin at the time.

I'm probably going to back them for the next few weeks and fancy a big one vs west ham this weekend.

6/5 with bet victor.

Dunno if this helps Pleno but I've been monitoring their season long point on the spreads. They went up one point after being knocked out of Europe and half a point when they made their deadline signings. So bookies have reacted but not that much.

This game is Monday night football, so time is not of the essence

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/hull-v-west-ham/winner

Happy to place it, but do we think its a decent price/opportunity as Patrick does?

[TightEnd]

I'm taking on a Matchroom fighter again this weekend (I'll get one beaten eventually). Fast Eddie is trying to manoeuvre Anthony Crolla in to getting a world title shot in much the same way as he did with Brian Rose. Crolla, like Rose is nowhere near world level and will get well and truly found out if he gets a shot. Before then he has to get past Gamaliel Diaz a Mexican veteran who may have seen better days but was still capable of going to Japan and winning the WBC featherweight title in Japan which is light years ahead of anything Crolla has done.

Crolla obviously has home advantage but Diaz has travelled abroad as a dog before and won. Crolla hasn't shown anything to suggest he much better than domestic level and is very short here against an experienced fighter who has operated in and around world level for many years. Recommend £30 on Diaz at 11/2 with BV

Hi

forgive my cynicism

crolla is a hearn fighter fighting at home, with the promoter having mapped out a path to a title shot for his man that will need him to win this?

quite difficult for the underdog to get a decision, if it comes to it, isn't it? or is it simply far cleaner than that these days?

anyway, not arguing with the bet, just asking an ice cream question...

BV are 9/2 on site.....

so went to Coral

Gamaliel Diaz5/1Anthony Crolla v Gamaliel Diaz - 13/09/2014
Stake £30.00
Estimated Return:£180.00
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Return: £180.00 

[pleno1]

Can anybody compare the odds that hull had at the start of the seasons compared to now? In terms of handicap odds.

I actually really liked their summer activity. Diame, Ben arfa and Ramirez could play for any team in the premiership of they were managed well and I feel Brucey gets that. Livermore and huddlestone have given them a little bit of a base in midfield and the new signing seems like a goalscorer.

I really like the look of them this season, would their odds have changed in the West ham game much compared to 2 weeks ago?

Obviously I'm saying this because they were in Europe and now they are not and that would have been in the price initially for a lot of their base prices and their squad was really thin at the time.

I'm probably going to back them for the next few weeks and fancy a big one vs west ham this weekend.

6/5 with bet victor.

Dunno if this helps Pleno but I've been monitoring their season long point on the spreads. They went up one point after being knocked out of Europe and half a point when they made their deadline signings. So bookies have reacted but not that much.

This game is Monday night football, so time is not of the essence

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/hull-v-west-ham/winner

Happy to place it, but do we think its a decent price/opportunity as Patrick does?

i must admit that im personally just very fond of both diame and ben arfa. i feel like both are on their day world class but neither have been on the big stage for whatever reason (injury/out of favour due to ridiculous management) perhaps this is just me and my tunnel vision for these players.