Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I like Morgan Schneirderlin first goal scorer against Newcastle this weekend at 16/1 with 365. Think it's at least a few points too big.

I have always felt he has been unlucky not to have scored more goals than he has for Saints over the years. He is being asked to threaten the box far more now with the assurances of Davies and a settled Ward Prowse who has found his best position sitting deeper.

This is a map of shots so far this season - Schneiderlin on the left, Ward Prowse on the right. Green is on target.

Click to see full-size image.

Expect to continue to see him making lots of late breaks into the box while Tadic/Long work the flanks.

As for the 4/5 on Saints to win - think it's one of those games to just leave alone.

Great shout Mark, thank you.

[tikay]

Mention of Mark Porter for his Morgan Whatsit FGS bet reminds me of our Guernsey sweat.

Guernsey won again yesterday, third win in a row, scores were 2-1, 8-1 & 5-1.

They are the leading goalscorers by some way (30 goals in 10 games) & have joint best GD.

They currently sit 7th in the League, but seem to have momentum now.

Ross Allen has scored SEVEN goals in the last 3 games. Costa? Costa who?

There, that should save Tighty a bit of work.

[Waz1892]

Far from a royalist and that jazz but a question on the up and coming arrival next year.

Georgy-boy was born on the same day as my son, so i said this one will be born on my birthday.
 
I believe April is the fav for which month with March an obvious choice too.

So i requested a price from wills (bookie not the father) and was quoted 14/1 to pick the exact day i chose.

Are these odds "OK"? 

This is from an novice bit of fun perspective.

[Mark_Porter]

He had options on the mainland but think he's an island boy at heart.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2313831/Footballerss-Football-Column--Ross-Allen-Signing-Matt-Le-Tissier-great-wont-penalties-me.html

Glad they finally got going. Away against 3rd place Faversham on Tuesday night will be interesting.

[tikay]

He had options on the mainland but think he's an island boy at heart.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2313831/Footballerss-Football-Column--Ross-Allen-Signing-Matt-Le-Tissier-great-wont-penalties-me.html

Glad they finally got going. Away against 3rd place Faversham on Tuesday night will be interesting.

I read somewhere that Ross had scored 160 goals in 120 appearances for Guernsey, prior to this season.

Why has he not "moved up" the Leagues?

[tikay]

He had options on the mainland but think he's an island boy at heart.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2313831/Footballerss-Football-Column--Ross-Allen-Signing-Matt-Le-Tissier-great-wont-penalties-me.html

Glad they finally got going. Away against 3rd place Faversham on Tuesday night will be interesting.

Wowzer!

We have to fly to all our away games using Aurigny Air Services. Our recent match at South Park, in Surrey, was a Friday night game, kick off at 7.45pm. We flew to Gatwick and stayed at the airport hotel. I scored two as we won 2-0. But we had a match the following evening so after staying over we woke up the next morning at 7am, for the 8.30am flight back to Guernsey.
 
We tried to get some rest, some food, then it was a 7.45pm kick off that evening.

Then there was a 1.30pm kick off the day after that.

[Mark_Porter]

He had options on the mainland but think he's an island boy at heart.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2313831/Footballerss-Football-Column--Ross-Allen-Signing-Matt-Le-Tissier-great-wont-penalties-me.html

Glad they finally got going. Away against 3rd place Faversham on Tuesday night will be interesting.

I read somewhere that Ross had scored 160 goals in 120 appearances for Guernsey, prior to this season.

Why has he not "moved up" the Leagues?

I believe he has had trials at a few clubs but nobody has taken him on. Really tough to leave island life behind as well.

[Doobs]

Far from a royalist and that jazz but a question on the up and coming arrival next year.

Georgy-boy was born on the same day as my son, so i said this one will be born on my birthday.
 
I believe April is the fav for which month with March an obvious choice too.

So i requested a price from wills (bookie not the father) and was quoted 14/1 to pick the exact day i chose.

Are these odds "OK"? 

This is from an novice bit of fun perspective.

I think we need to know your birthday.  If it is around the start of April it should be one of the favourites.  Just having a quick read and looking at the odds, I am guessing the last week in March, maybe the first 3 in April is the most likely region.  Think maybe if it is in the first two weeks in April it should be about 25/1 ish.  Further away I think you should be bigger still.  So I don't think you have a good price if you around there, but it is just a fun punt so doesn't really matter.  Ask the tightwads for 25/1 though! 

[Waz1892]

Far from a royalist and that jazz but a question on the up and coming arrival next year.

Georgy-boy was born on the same day as my son, so i said this one will be born on my birthday.
 
I believe April is the fav for which month with March an obvious choice too.

So i requested a price from wills (bookie not the father) and was quoted 14/1 to pick the exact day i chose.

Are these odds "OK"?

This is from an novice bit of fun perspective.

I think we need to know your birthday.  If it is around the start of April it should be one of the favourites.  Just having a quick read and looking at the odds, I am guessing the last week in March, maybe the first 3 in April is the most likely region.  Think maybe if it is in the first two weeks in April it should be about 25/1 ish.  Further away I think you should be bigger still.  So I don't think you have a good price if you around there, but it is just a fun punt so doesn't really matter.  Ask the tightwads for 25/1 though! 

30th March @14/1.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £242.34

Outstanding Bets £4495.15

Free bets to use ONE £25 William Hill use by 20th Sept

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A loss of £61 yesterday

Winners (what are they?)

* +£29 Port Adelaide came from 31 points down to post a 22-point win over Fremantle in the AFL semi-final. First time poster Geoff had us on at 6/4. Quick question, in which Australian city is Fremantle?

Click to see full-size image.

* +£25 Estidhkaar in blue won at Doncaster at Evens

Click to see full-size image.

* +£22 Morgan Schneiderlin's beautiful 90th minute curler secured an each-way/anytime return on a FGS bet



* +£15 Harrogate Railway Athletic won 3-1 in the FA Cup

Losers

* -£25 Aljamaher 2nd at Doncaster, for the free bet detailed above

* -£30 Diaz stopped in the fourth by Crolla

* -£30 Al Kazeem unplaced at Leopardstown

* -£20 Windshear 4th a head away from 3rd, 3 paid each way in the St Leger, behind Kingston Hill

Click to see full-size image.

* -£20 Hddersfield losing at home to Middlesborough

* - £10 Karun Chandhok unplaced in Formula E Beijing. We did well though, if I had been up half an hour earlier yesterday we would have backed a driver to win who was actually in Germany for the DTM.

Click to see full-size image.

* -£5 Jack Payne not a goalscorer in Southend's win over Portsmouth

* -£10 Marske United (where?) drew in the FA Cup

ongoing positions

This will teach me to take Saturday off. Sunday morning hell working through a £4.5k forward book


 Leicester City gloriously leapt into the top half, where they are set to stay (maybe) with a tactical change at half time that allowed us to keep the ball. A rarity in the first half

Click to see full-size image.

the introduction of Esteban Cambiasso changed the game. He was comfortably the best player on the pitch, with the vision of a player with shares in specsavers.



Ulloa scored his 3rd in 4 games  

Click to see full-size image.

We also have top ten bets on Stoke, who were limited and Newcastle, who dream of being merely limited. 18 points out of the last 69 for Newcastle

Click to see full-size image.

We have 17 bullish bets on Crystal Palace, who were indebted to Speroni's excellent penalty save for a point at home to Burnley

Click to see full-size image.

We also have Southampton to go down. Someone open the Walsall box, which we don't like to mention too much, we need to clear a space.



We do have West Brom to be relegated, and that looks a decent shout

We also have Liverpool on the handicap. No one would have predicted that they would get turned over at home by Villa. Villa's starting XI cost £3.6m less than Dejan Lovren. Aston Villa this season - 6 shots on target (lowest in the entire Premier League), 4 goals, 10 points out of 12

Balotelli, despite Senderos' best efforts, didn't get riled up and no sign of a sending off



- Championship

Watford lost at Charlton with our good friend Vetokele winning a second minute penalty with his pace. Watford are 4th

Not the greatest day for the Bamford top Middlesborugh bet, Grant "box to box" Leadbitter scored two goals yesterday. Middlesborough keep winning penalties and he keeps converting them


- League One

Peterborough drew at home. Now 2nd

Our match bet with Peterborough, Doncaster, lost. Peterborugh 16 points, Doncaster 7 points

- League Two

Newport County continue to recover after a poor start to the season, and won 3-2 at home to Northampton, and now have 8 points

- Non-league

Dover lost at home 1-0 to equally poor Macclesfield and are now one place above the relegation spots

Guernsey are in form now. 5-1 away winners yesterday, up to 7th in Ryman one south and Ross Allen, mentioned by Mark when recommending the bet, top league scorer with 8 goals

- Cricket

The Lahore Lions beat the Mumbai Indians in the Champions which IPL team shall we make win T20 trophy preliminary round

- Baseball

The Orioles lost to the Yankees 3-2, and are now 10.5 games clear in the AL East.

The Yankees need to win 12 of the last 15 to thwart us

In the Central the Royals won, and remain 0.5 games behind the Tigers in the their titaniic tussle for the title. The Royals manager Ned Yost, in an attempt to increase run hitting potential (actually scoring being the team's weakness), took a knife to the line up. Yost on his new-look lineup: "Trying to get speed at the top and bottom. ..trying to create havoc" worked in its first game

Click to see full-size image.

- Racing

Sea the Moon withdrew from the Arc and Treve shortened as a result t0 7/2. Her warm up is the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp today

- Indyref

4 polls out yesterday, and the poll of polls came out as Yes 49-No 51 with four days of campaigning on blonde threads to go.

"Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout - http://po.st/f0QXta "

Click to see full-size image.

Murdoch is about to come out for Yes too.

- Golf

Might McIlroy do it again?

With 18 to play... T1. Horschel, -9 T1. McIlroy, -9 3. Furyk, -7 T4. Fowler, -6 T4. Rose, -6 T4. Day, -6

 


Today...this

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

There are times when I'm convinced we operate a two tight end system.

Stupendous stuff.

[tikay]

There are times when I'm convinced we operate a two tight end system.

Stupendous stuff.

I simply have no idea how he does it. And a quip a line, a joy to read. 

The Lahore Lions beat the Mumbai Indians in the Champions which IPL team shall we make win T20 trophy preliminary round

[tikay]

Aussie Rules

Knockout time in the Aussie rules finals. The game i am looking at is Fremantle v Port Adelaide. Although Fremantle at home is a bit of a fortress, Port Adelaide are absolutely flying at the moment and are on a roll. I watched Port dismantle Carlton a few weeks ago, and last week made the form side in the league at the moment (Richmond 8 wins in a row) look ordinary. Indeed the game was all over at quarter time (42 - 7). This game will be close, Port narrowly losing at Fremantle 4 weeks ago when poised to win. A big loss for Fremantle from that game is the loss of Valentine (man of the match) and stopping the hard running Port team will be difficult. Its obviously a gamble but 2.5 to win with bf looks a bet. Suggest 20 quid . Gl all

Welcome aboard Geoff, post more!

Thank you.

[TightEnd]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

[Mark_Porter]

Love the Sunday report.

Can somebody tell me how you work out the reverse price for home/away games. I.e. Swansea v Saints next week is 5/4 v 21/10. What would this mean the prices would roughly look like if Saints were at home?