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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 8738792 times)
BigAdz
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« Reply #87210 on: September 18, 2014, 01:27:27 PM »

Hey guys,

I'm not in the country at the moment, extremely busy doing admin stuff in India. Gonna post my initial pre-race Singapore GP bets early as my internet access could be a little sketchy over the next few days.

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 with Betfair Exchange. Once again, anything over evens is mental - recommend £10.

Group B (BOT/ALO/MAS/RAI): Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with PaddyPower. That price seems slightly too high to me, Williams should be stronger than Ferrari and Bottas is usually quicker than Felipe over a race distance - recommend £5.

Group C (BUT/MAG/HUL/PER): Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/3 with PaddyPower. Force India have a massive update for this race, probably the biggest in their history. If it works, then this is between Nico/Sergio. May well be suggesting more money on Force India drivers after FP1, but for now - recommend £5.

Hi Peter - I've seen this mentioned before about Rosberg being value at anything above evens.  Can you explain the rationale on that?  Assuming Hamilton is rated equally then if Rosberg is evens isn't that saying the rest of the field has zero chance?  Hasn't that Ricardo bloke won a couple of races this year?

Might be missing something here.  Not saying 23/10 isn't a bad bet, but surely he can't be evens.

We can't use PP (for the 18th time!) so the only available bet of yours here is the Rosberg one, Peter


Wow. Late night Tighty?

Keep posting Pete please. Would rather get on for peanuts than not at all.
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« Reply #87211 on: September 18, 2014, 01:35:40 PM »

Hey guys,

I'm not in the country at the moment, extremely busy doing admin stuff in India. Gonna post my initial pre-race Singapore GP bets early as my internet access could be a little sketchy over the next few days.

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 23/10 with Betfair Exchange. Once again, anything over evens is mental - recommend £10.

Group B (BOT/ALO/MAS/RAI): Valtteri Bottas @ 13/8 with PaddyPower. That price seems slightly too high to me, Williams should be stronger than Ferrari and Bottas is usually quicker than Felipe over a race distance - recommend £5.

Group C (BUT/MAG/HUL/PER): Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/3 with PaddyPower. Force India have a massive update for this race, probably the biggest in their history. If it works, then this is between Nico/Sergio. May well be suggesting more money on Force India drivers after FP1, but for now - recommend £5.

Hi Peter - I've seen this mentioned before about Rosberg being value at anything above evens.  Can you explain the rationale on that?  Assuming Hamilton is rated equally then if Rosberg is evens isn't that saying the rest of the field has zero chance?  Hasn't that Ricardo bloke won a couple of races this year?

Might be missing something here.  Not saying 23/10 isn't a bad bet, but surely he can't be evens.

We can't use PP (for the 18th time!) so the only available bet of yours here is the Rosberg one, Peter


Wow. Late night Tighty?

Keep posting Pete please. Would rather get on for peanuts than not at all.

not at all

it obviously came across worse than it was intended

we can't get on with PaddyPower, or Stan James, or Boyles amongst others and this must be repeated 4-5 times a week on here

there is a list on the initial post of the thread of all the bookmakers and their current status for the thread
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« Reply #87212 on: September 18, 2014, 01:41:23 PM »

Tighty

What price do you think Kyle Fuller should be for defensive rookie now that Tillman out for the season?

that's an interesting one

one of the things a cornerback has to battle for the award is that no cornerback has won the award since 1988

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Rookie_of_the_Year_Award#Defensive_ROTY_Winners_.281967.E2.80.93present.29

in part this is because its tough for a young cornerback to play immediately and learn on the job. Especially these days where the rules favour the offense so much

in general the big boys up front see the field earlier, make impacts quicker (sacks, tackles for loss) compared to the number of interceptions (the main headline stat) a cornerback makes

of course now Fuller is going to see the field then if he performs against quarterbacks like Rodgers and Stafford then he'll get the profile

another one to look at in this regard is Jason Verrett of the Chargers who played from week 1 snap 1 and is currently rated the fifth best corner in the league

http://boltbeat.com/2014/09/16/san-diego-chargers-cb-jason-verrett-rated-5th-best-corner-pff/

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« Reply #87213 on: September 18, 2014, 01:44:29 PM »

80-85% turnout 2/1 with lads is worthy of £50 i feel.  Most firms are much shorter.  Over 75% is 1/33 on betfair so it's safe to assume that it's probably going to sail over 80% as well.  This leaves us with two bands to deal with 80-85 and 85-90% (11/4 coral) in reality (what are people's views on it going over 90% surely this must be a lot more unlikely than the 5/1 price suggests).  Could easily back both coupled at 4/6 but i think the lads 2/1 offers slightly more ev.  Happy to listen to other views.  
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« Reply #87214 on: September 18, 2014, 04:32:55 PM »

Could anyone assist me in getting the 11/4 at coral on the above bet 85-90 turnout %?  Can bank transfer straight away to reliable posters/pay cash at dtd over this weekend.  A clean account should be able to get £182 on at 11/4 (to win £500).  PM if you can help with bank details once you have the bet on.  Ideally looking for 2 clean accounts to get £150 on each and let you have the other £32 for yourself.  They don't have this market in the shops as i saw their screens earlier when trying to get on.
 
http://sports.coral.co.uk/political-specials/uk/scottish-politics/referendum-turnout-2035138.html
« Last Edit: September 18, 2014, 04:52:12 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #87215 on: September 18, 2014, 05:20:36 PM »

80-85% turnout 2/1 with lads is worthy of £50 i feel.  Most firms are much shorter.  Over 75% is 1/33 on betfair so it's safe to assume that it's probably going to sail over 80% as well.  This leaves us with two bands to deal with 80-85 and 85-90% (11/4 coral) in reality (what are people's views on it going over 90% surely this must be a lot more unlikely than the 5/1 price suggests).  Could easily back both coupled at 4/6 but i think the lads 2/1 offers slightly more ev.  Happy to listen to other views. 

from what i read i would rather be on 85-90 than 80-85, but there's not a lot of science behind that view
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« Reply #87216 on: September 18, 2014, 05:26:20 PM »

80-85% turnout 2/1 with lads is worthy of £50 i feel.  Most firms are much shorter.  Over 75% is 1/33 on betfair so it's safe to assume that it's probably going to sail over 80% as well.  This leaves us with two bands to deal with 80-85 and 85-90% (11/4 coral) in reality (what are people's views on it going over 90% surely this must be a lot more unlikely than the 5/1 price suggests).  Could easily back both coupled at 4/6 but i think the lads 2/1 offers slightly more ev.  Happy to listen to other views. 

from what i read i would rather be on 85-90 than 80-85, but there's not a lot of science behind that view

Same there has been a big gamble last few hours on the over % in the over/under numbers.  Don't think the 2/1 is value now.  All the value is in 85-90%.  Would still be surprised if it goes over 90% though.
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« Reply #87217 on: September 18, 2014, 05:31:17 PM »

Could anyone assist me in getting the 11/4 at coral on the above bet 85-90 turnout %?  Can bank transfer straight away to reliable posters/pay cash at dtd over this weekend.  A clean account should be able to get £182 on at 11/4 (to win £500).  PM if you can help with bank details once you have the bet on.  Ideally looking for 2 clean accounts to get £150 on each and let you have the other £32 for yourself.  They don't have this market in the shops as i saw their screens earlier when trying to get on.
 
http://sports.coral.co.uk/political-specials/uk/scottish-politics/referendum-turnout-2035138.html

Corals gone 2/1 now.  TYVM for the help from those who pm'd.
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« Reply #87218 on: September 18, 2014, 05:31:26 PM »

I'm very wary of in these markets on polling day because of the extreme reporting restrictions in place. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29256595 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-what-you-shouldnt-tweet-about-if-you-want-to-avoid-jail-today-9740794.html Information on things like turnout and exit polling doesn't trickle out like most information usually does but people do have it and bet into these markets. Obviously hope you scoop the lot, Arbboy, and prove me a nervous nellie. Wink
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« Reply #87219 on: September 18, 2014, 05:36:57 PM »

at the risk of a parallel thread, the interesting thing is whether 85%+ suits yes or no.

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« Reply #87220 on: September 18, 2014, 05:46:19 PM »

Great read from the betfair dog forum.  Not sure on the source before that.

http://community.betfair.com/greyhounds/go/thread/view/94094/30349689/oddsmaker-positions-staffed-by-losing-punters?liveView=0

Seems to me this aussie has it about right...

Vale the greatest Australian racing tradition: A fair contest
Peter Lawrence - 8/09/2014

In 1997 when Might And Power led all the way to complete the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double, I had the great honour of holding the number two position on the rails at the Gold Coast, alongside three legends of Australian bookmaking, Laurie Bricknell, Terry Page and Lloyd Merlehan.

I venture to say that should there ever be a Hall Of Fame for bookmakers, these three would certainly be amongst the first twenty five admitted.

Although racecourse attendances were already steadily declining, they were still vibrant days for racecourse betting in Australia.

I particularly remember that Melbourne Cup for two reasons. Firstly, I thought Might And Power was a "once in a ten year” Cup special and backed him for my maximum.

I also thought that Doriemus was a special to oppose and laid him to lose my maximum.

I felt sick as the post drew ever near with Doriemus eating into the lead of Might And Power. I felt sicker still as they hit the line and Greg Hall gave his now infamous victory wave on Doriemus.

I cursed those wretched racing Gods who had snatched a great result from my bag and turned it into a disaster.

Of course thirty seconds later when the official photo finish was displayed on the TV monitors around the course, that nausea was replaced with delight and the world seemed so much brighter.

Secondly, I remember vividly Laurie Bricknell's betting phone ringing as the field thundered down the straight for the first time with Might And Power rolling to the front. It was Melbourne bookmaker Michael Eskander, father of current day bookmaker Alan and founder of Betstar.

Michael had been caught with a late bet on Might And Power - would Laurie be able to bet him $50,000 to $14,000, even though they had reached the post for the first time?

"No worries,” I heard Laurie say, before he called the bet to his clerk. Laurie Bricknell was after all a bookmaker and this was the Melbourne Cup. He was there to bet!

In 1997 if you were on the rails at the Gold Coast you displayed your prices and were obliged to bet to lose a minimum of $10,000.

The on course betting stewards kept you on your toes at all times. Their primary interest was to protect the punters. If you had a dispute with a punter over a price and a few minutes later you saw the betting steward with said punter in toe, you knew absolutely that the steward would take the side of the punter. And so he should too. Bookmakers have plenty in their favour.

I had grown up as a teenager reading all the great books written about racing and punting. Unlike the UK, Australian racing had a long an honourable tradition when it came to the battle on the track.

The bookmaker with his percentage advantage on the board, defied the punter to beat the odds.

No doubt in years gone by there were many instances of bookmakers and punters trying to increase their chances through skullduggery. But those instances were far and away less common than many believe and by the late 1980s they were becoming less common still.

The racing folklore was full of successful punters who had beaten the odds and as a young man I had the pleasure of working for one of the most famous, Don Scott, whose "Winning” books told in a methodical way how it was possible to "beat the bookies.”

That was and is the whole point of betting on the horses, surely. The possibility of coming out on top, because unlike casino games and slot machines, the true odds of any outcome are arbitrary and a matter of opinion.

If, as a punter, you are smarter than the market, then you can win at horse racing.

The legend that is Australian horse betting is founded on the honest battle of "I will pit my wits and skill and nerve against your's; may the best man win.”

The stewards of course have been there to referee and do their best to insure a fair fight.

However, in the last three years the game has changed completely. This wonderful Australian tradition of a fair go and a fair contest has been laid to waste as the British corporates have suffocated and destroyed in three years what took one hundred and fifty years to establish.

Without exception, they have three strings to their bow.

Firstly, weed out all winning punters and close their accounts, or restrict their bet sizes to such a small amount they will no longer bother betting.

Secondly, weed out all losing punters who lose less than 3.5% on turnover and close their accounts also. Their business model shows it is not worth bothering with line ball players either. They are only interested in serious losers.

Thirdly, find the guilt edged, rich mug and let him do whatever he likes. Court him like a prince, buy him tickets to premium sporting events and fill up on his largesse as the family fortune is slightly or perhaps completely depleted.

These are the "clients” that everyone is after.

Not one of these corporates has a form analyst with any ability whatsoever. They all slavishly follow the opening TAB markets, with very little change from Wednesday evening until Saturday morning.

They are not interested in pitting their skill against yours, because these British corporates are staffed with failed Australian punters, who cannot win punting themselves and fiercely resent anyone who can.

As if this revolting practice was not bad enough, these same British corporations have the audacity to trade on the back of the very Australian tradition they have completely destroyed in recent times.

Every advertisement is full of Aussie anachronisms, with the lead players always being "Matty or Brad or Warnie or Waz,” or some equally ridgy didge name.

We are told to "fire up” by corporations that won't bet you to lose $1000, with most adds being shot in pubs, as true blue Aussie blokes bet up. The irony is astonishing.

There is nothing remotely Australian about these betting houses, and the Aussies who have sold their soul, those who grew up on the racetracks of Grafton, Randwick, Flemington and the Gold Coast, should hang their heads in shame for the part they have played in this whole scale destruction of our once great contest. At least Ladbrokes is honest about who they are.

This remarkable coup has taken place behind the protective wall of the Northern Territory Government, who has allowed these British corporations to operate in a tax and regulation free haven not seen in Australia before.

Not only have they been allowed to destroy the betting landscape, they operate under no rules that can be enforced by betting stewards or racing officialdom.

There is no one on the side of the punter any more. The punter is now simply open game to be raped and pillaged with gay abandon, with virtually all profits sent offshore to even greater tax havens like Gibraltar, through one shoddy means or another.

Recently, the Sydney Morning Herald finance pages reported on a memorandum sent to all TAB agencies on how to identify "non genuine gamblers,” and get rid of them. Of course non genuine gamblers are winners.

Despite the pathetic banners at the bottom of all websites claiming a commitment to responsible gambling, these betting houses, the TAB included, are ONLY interested in losing gamblers, a subset of punters that contains ALL problem gamblers.

By its very definition, problem gamblers can hardly be winning punters. What a sad indictment of how the whole racing industry is paralyzed by "sponsorship” money, that this story was run in the finance pages and not in the racing section of the paper.

I have spent a lifetime honing my skills as a racing analyst. I have won each of the past 10 years since I retired from bookmaking as a punter and pay tax as a professional gambler.

I pit my skills as a form analyst against the skills of the bookmaker in what should be a fair contest, even allowing for the percentage edge bookmakers have in their markets. But nobody wants to play that game any longer.

Accounts that I have held with Australian bookmaking agencies for decades have been closed. Relationships that were developed over 30 years have counted for nothing as I have been treated as a pariah by these agencies, despised for being "too smart.”

There is no fair contest any more and there is no one remotely interested in doing anything about it, because the tentacles of sponsorship money reach far and wide in the racing community and the stewards are impotent to do anything about the Northern Territory regulations.

There are regularly wildly fluctuating deductions for late scratchings, depending I guess on who has laid which horse the most, with no one to complain to if you are on the receiving end of a good old fashioned touch up.

Surely, the time has come for the major racing jurisdictions to legislate to make each of the corporate bookmakers be licensed in each state on which they operate, and then to be bound by the RULES OF RACING, as all other bookmakers are.

To have a standard set of deductions and a rule that compels them to bet to lose a certain amount, AT LEAST the equal to rails bookmakers operating on each meeting.

Racing NSW to their credit have gone at least some way to addressing this problem, but the minimum bet of $2000 is clearly laughable in 2014.

Even that paltry amount is being challenged by the British corporates, who are prepared to go to court to challenge the Racing NSW ruling.

They are so used to operating under no rules at all, they are disgusted at the prospect of actually having to lay a bet to someone who might actually win!

Imagine the hide of those dreadful Australians actually wishing to win!

How can a situation continue to exist whereby you have Rules Of Racing that apply in each state to bookmakers, whilst by far the largest bookmakers in Australia simply thumb their nose at them, and whereby punters have no one to protect their rights at all?
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« Reply #87221 on: September 18, 2014, 05:46:34 PM »

Magath sacked

tough break on those bets, as Solksjaer beat him to it by about 5 hours....
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« Reply #87222 on: September 18, 2014, 06:08:17 PM »

at the risk of a parallel thread, the interesting thing is whether 85%+ suits yes or no.



Not sure on this tbh.  How likely do you think 90% + turnout is?  90% is really high and unlikely.  Is 95% even possible in reality?
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« Reply #87223 on: September 18, 2014, 07:09:39 PM »

I believe that a higher turnout is supposed to favour yes. Older voters are firstly more likely to vote and secondly the only demographic where no leads.

Theoretically a higher percentage should mean more younger voters and they are,according to the polls, more likely to be supporters of yes.

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« Reply #87224 on: September 18, 2014, 07:45:05 PM »

"All the signs are that the turnout is large but is that best for YES or NO?

http://bit.ly/1miWtLn "
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