Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Dont worry he was on the Lol coup

[horseplayer]

Not a F1 fan/follower at all but anyway.

Read something on train about a virtual safety car coming in soon? First thought was would that leave an edge on the safety car market?

[ripple11]

I gather two acts leave X Factor tonight

is this a public vote?

could someone post up who please, as i will be NFLing

our positions are on

Only the Bucks Fizz
Overload
Fleur
Lola

some outright, some to win categories

i am hoping none are at risk tonight?

Overload Generation are most likely to get the boot but Steph the bully and Blonde Electra are favs.

"Those safe is announced is no particular order"....but sometimes I think they like to announce the " shock/ worst act " that is safe, first, for dramatic effect.
Done Stevi at 14/1 for a wee interest

[horseplayer]

Do you need help getting on Tightys nfl bet?

[tikay]

Do you need help getting on Tightys nfl bet?

We may do John, let's wait & see what Tighty says, as I don't know how strong he fancies it, & thus "how much".

Not sure what time it starts, but if he does not appear in the next half hour, I'll have a look & see if we have any Firms that will accommodate us. If not, I'll be grateful if you can help.   

Is it 6pm, 9pm or "late" start?

[horseplayer]

6pm i believe

[Peter-27]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

It is all a bit theoretical as Tighty is going to be limited to £1.24, but should we be betting more on way too high than on thin value?  

This is something I get asked a lot, and I guess I have a difference in opinion to other regular gamblers. I take both value and probability into consideration when determining my stake, rather than just value - just a preference to be honest. It can be argued that this isn't as profitable long term, but I've yet to be convinced of the validity of this argument.

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?  Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

Bet365 bets are difficult. i could get a sum total of just over a pound on the second and third bets.

Not sure "thin value" is really what we are looking for either.

the first bet i could get on at 2-1

 Bet Receipt
Single Selections
Race Markets Adrian Sutil (Group B - Race) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

That surprises me! Sure, more value is better - but value is still value? 

I definitely think you should take the volatility of a bet into account. You should definitely bet more on even money chances than 2/1 chances if your edge is the same.  But here you have acknowledged that one bet us way better than the other yet bet smaller.  I'd say you should be betting at least as much on bet 3 as bet 2. 

If you want to investigate this further, Google Kelly calculator betting or similar.  I am not suggesting that you start betting in these amounts (Tikay would never sleep) but it will give you a feel for respective bet sizes.  So if you think your 8/11 chance should really be 4/6, then you should bet less than you would on an 8/1 chance that should be 5/1. 

I think you need to be very sure on your probabilities before you start reading too much in to it though.

Sorry, maybe I'm being dumb here, but I don't understand the bit I put into bold.

If your edge is the same on two bets, one evens and one 2/1, surely you'd put more on the 2/1 bet to increase your profits?

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

The tennis is starting it's indoor season and I think there is a bet to be had in the Russian tournament this week. Cilic and Raonic are the favourites at 2-1 ish and are no value at all. Next in the betting are Gulbis and Youhzny. I have Gulbis towards the top of my not to be trusted list, except on clay, and Youhzny has problems playing well 2 weeks in a row so I can't have either of them.

The player I think is value is Bautista-Agut at 25-1.

Suggest £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Ladbrokes.

[Doobs]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

It is all a bit theoretical as Tighty is going to be limited to £1.24, but should we be betting more on way too high than on thin value?  

This is something I get asked a lot, and I guess I have a difference in opinion to other regular gamblers. I take both value and probability into consideration when determining my stake, rather than just value - just a preference to be honest. It can be argued that this isn't as profitable long term, but I've yet to be convinced of the validity of this argument.

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Group B (GRO/SUT/GUT/MAL): Adrian Sutil at 9/4 with Bet Victor. Can't really understand why they have gone so high on this price! Do they even watch F1 or do they just set the prices based on recent results?   Recommend £15.

Group C (BUT/RAI/MAG): Jenson Button at 8/11 with PaddyPower and Bet366InALeapYear. This is very thin value, so don't accept a lower price - but against Raikkonen and Magnussen, this is worth a punt. Suggest £10.

Group D (KYV/VER/PER/HUL): Nico Hulkenberg at 8/1 with Bet365. This is very unlikely to happen with Nico starting down in 17th place - however Nico is one of the faster drivers in this group, and if there are a lot of safety cars to bunch everyone up, it's possible! 8/1 is way too high, worth a £5 bet. If you must, go up to £10, but I would strongly suggest £5 only.

Bet365 bets are difficult. i could get a sum total of just over a pound on the second and third bets.

Not sure "thin value" is really what we are looking for either.

the first bet i could get on at 2-1

 Bet Receipt
Single Selections
Race Markets Adrian Sutil (Group B - Race) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 15.00 Possible Return:  45.00

That surprises me! Sure, more value is better - but value is still value?  

I definitely think you should take the volatility of a bet into account. You should definitely bet more on even money chances than 2/1 chances if your edge is the same.  But here you have acknowledged that one bet us way better than the other yet bet smaller.  I'd say you should be betting at least as much on bet 3 as bet 2.  

If you want to investigate this further, Google Kelly calculator betting or similar.  I am not suggesting that you start betting in these amounts (Tikay would never sleep) but it will give you a feel for respective bet sizes.  So if you think your 8/11 chance should really be 4/6, then you should bet less than you would on an 8/1 chance that should be 5/1.  

I think you need to be very sure on your probabilities before you start reading too much in to it though.

Sorry, maybe I'm being dumb here, but I don't understand the bit I put into bold.

If your edge is the same on two bets, one evens and one 2/1, surely you'd put more on the 2/1 bet to increase your profits?

If you have a 10% edge on both bets, less volatile is best.  If you keep finding a lot of 20/1 bets that should be 18/1, you are getting the same edge as with 11/10 bets that should be evens, but you are going to need a bigger bankroll and have more volatile returns.  So when you are trying to bet more on your short priced thin value shot, you are recognising this effect.  But that effect isn't enough to mean you shouldn't chuck more at 8/1 shots that should be 5/1.  

[tikay]

Do you need help getting on Tightys nfl bet?

Managed to get the bet on John, but thank you for the offer.

We have £25 on Antonio Brown to score the first goal thing, with WH.

BET PLACED.

Gotta dash, am pokering, I need to earn £90 to pay for that missing Safety Car.

[BigAdz]

Evening Mr T.

The tennis is starting it's indoor season and I think there is a bet to be had in the Russian tournament this week. Cilic and Raonic are the favourites at 2-1 ish and are no value at all. Next in the betting are Gulbis and Youhzny. I have Gulbis towards the top of my not to be trusted list, except on clay, and Youhzny has problems playing well 2 weeks in a row so I can't have either of them.

The player I think is value is Bautista-Agut at 25-1.

Suggest £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Ladbrokes.

Good to have you back Hector.

More Rugby please!

[icles test]

jets good start and pittsburgh had all the play- please stop running it...

yuck

[StuartHopkin]

I gather two acts leave X Factor tonight

is this a public vote?

could someone post up who please, as i will be NFLing

our positions are on

Only the Bucks Fizz
Overload
Fleur
Lola

some outright, some to win categories

i am hoping none are at risk tonight?

Overload Generation are most likely to get the boot but Steph the bully and Blonde Electra are favs.

"Those safe is announced is no particular order"....but sometimes I think they like to announce the " shock/ worst act " that is safe, first, for dramatic effect.
Done Stevi at 14/1 for a wee interest

No way Stevie goes yet!

[exstream]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/technology/riot-games-league-of-legends-main-attraction-esports.html?ref=business&_r=0

[Chompy]

Do you need help getting on Tightys nfl bet?

Managed to get the bet on John, but thank you for the offer.

We have £25 on Antonio Brown to score the first goal thing, with WH.

BET PLACED.

Gotta dash, am pokering, I need to earn £90 to pay for that missing Safety Car.

I had the max on no safety car as recommended?