Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Second half redskins +6 is a couple of points too high imo and certainly value.

Bet365 got +6.5 5/6 on their in running market (on the match market +10.5)

[Kmac84]

Also Alfred Morris and Desean Jackson both ridic prices to score next TD at 14/1 with Ladbrokes.  Their odds compiler is sooooo bad it is embarrassing.  Both prob got 120-130% expectancies

Sick, was on everything else posted and missed this as was having a bowl of rice crispes when i got to laddies and deposited marget suspended. 

[redarmi]

Sorry for the delay guys.  Been struggling to get on the NBA stuff.  Racing Post are doing a season preview tomorrow in their sports section so might be worth a read if you are interested in other views.  

Here are the selections:

Outright - Corals have gone bonkers on this offering top price every team plus 1/2 1,2 ew terms in an incredibly bad ew race as the Eastern Conference only has 2 or 3 teams with a real chance of winning their conference (the place part of a win bet is effectively a bet to win their conference).  For example the Cavs are the favs at 7/2 (4.1-4.2 on bf) with coral so 7/4 to place but they are a general even money to win the eastern conference.

I have bet the following teams in the outright market all e/w with coral.  http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Cavs 7/2  £50 ew for fred
Bulls 17/2 £20 ew for fred
Clippers 12/1 £20 ew for fred
Raptors 66/1 £10 ew for fred9

Of the favs i want to oppose at the prices Spurs are really getting too old now as a team.  Happy to oppose them in the tough Western Conference at the prices.  OKC best player Durant is injured for at least the first month.  The Clippers are a young hungry team close to peaking and i feel they should be a lot shorter than 12/1 in the outright market with no health issues.

The 3 East bets are all very strong ev bets ew wise given the lopsided market towards the West.  Raptors are obviously linked to my maximum bet below as i make them the 3rd best team in the Eastern conference (reg season win totals have them joint 3rd favs with the wizards but the Wizards are half the price generally)

Divisional betting:

Maximum bet here.  Toronto to win their Division.  http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/atlantic-division/winner

This is a classic spot of having a division with an unfashionable team (Toronto) in a division with 4 other teams.  Two of them have literally no chance of winning this division and will be deliberately losing games and tanking to get better draft picks.  The other two teams are two of the biggest market teams in the league who are over rated by the bookies and have big salary cap issues in their teams. (Knicks and Nets).  To illustrate this i have included pinnacles over/under regular season win predictions for the teams.  Toronto are in for 48.5 wins (out of 82 games), Nets 41.5 and Knicks 39.5.  The other two teams are in for 15 wins (76ers - potentially the worse team in NBA history this season) and Boston 27.5 wins.  

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Basketball+Props/NBA/Lines.aspx

Given this gulf in estimated wins i would have thought Toronto would have been big odds on to win this division.  Yet we are able to back them at 6/5 in places and pretty much evens or odds against everywhere else.  I am recommending a maximum £300 bet at 6/5 or 11/10 on Toronto for fred.

For similar reasons on the reg season wins the SA Spurs are value at 5/6 to win their division with bwin.  £60 recommeneded.  With a £10 saver on Dallas at 10/1 with hills in the same division.  Dallas should be clear 2nd favs based on reg seasons win projections.  Houston are a terrible 2nd fav in this market and create all the value.  

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/southwest-division/winner

Other special markets where i have had bets will be posted tomorrow once i am fully on myself.

I don't really like to bet ante post as I can get a better return on my capital over that period using my bankroll day to day and time value of money decreases any value but even I might have to bet the Cavs each way @ 7/2.  The win is probably alright and the place is spectacularly good.

[Kmac84]

I think Rangers are overpriced tomorrow night in the League Cup at home to St Johnstone.  St Johnstone are one of the clubs that take all cup competition seriously and after last seasons Scottish cup success they have set out their stall of hoping for two more decent cup runs.  I don't see how they are as bg as  15/4 (VC) Worth a small bet £20 or so.  

[redarmi]

Second half redskins +6 is a couple of points too high imo and certainly value.

Genuinely looking forward to waking up to my page of congrats for this one ;-)

[bobby1]

Second half redskins +6 is a couple of points too high imo and certainly value.

Genuinely looking forward to waking up to my page of congrats for this one ;-)

Good call Red.

[arbboy]

well played red you are the man!!! 14/1 winner and a monster 2nd half side.  What a judge.  So good to have you back!

[exstream]

Werder Bremen, bottom of the Bundesliga have just sacked their coach and face Chemnitz away in the DFB Cup today. Chemnitz are a 3rd division team.

Dortmund are 4 points ahead of Bremen in the league and are playing awful. They face St Pauli away, a 2nd division team and are 2/7 to win.

Bremen however should see this as an opportunity to kickstart their season under their new coach and they are 23/20 to win.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/germany/dfb-pokal/chemnitz-v-werder-bremen/winner

Seems a ridiculous reaction to Werders form especially when compared to Dortmund - http://www.bundesliga.com/en/stats/table/

23/20 with bv. £46 to win £40?


tldr dortmund play away vs a league 2 side and are 2/7. bremen play away vs a league 3 side and are 23/20. both terrible form. one has new manager appointed 2 days ago.

[redarmi]

To compensate for my pretty bad joke above.....

Think there is a potentially very good bet in the Carling Cup tonight.  Chelsea have a lot of injury problems and it seems unlikely that they will risk rushing someone like Costa back for this game.  We already know Remy is out and surely they cant risk potentially having to play Drogba three times in a week at his age.  That pretty much leaves Schurrle and Mourinho has suggested he will have to play and potentially on his own yet we can back him at 6/1 with BMU and 365, 11/2 with Boyles and 5/1 generally.  If my hypothesis is correct then I think he is probably a realistic 3/1 shot so would be looking to have a fairly lumpy bet.  Maybe rec £60 for Fred at 6/1 or £50 at the 5/1 (lets pretend Boyles don't exist because, well, they don't)

[Tal]

Well done, redarmi. Good to have you at the helm. Miles better than the last guy!

[BigAdz]

Helps having the constitution of an old man, you can still catch the witching hour posters.

N1 Red.

Nice to know you read my posts too.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Here is a little game for you to start your day

You have to pick the right answer to determine if you would make a good NFL Coach

Scenario 1

You are 10-7 down in the third quarter. Your quarterback is out of the game, been injured by the pass rush. So your back-up quarterback is in.

Its 2nd and goal at the 3

You have a running back who is over 1,000 yards for the season in 8 games and already has 120 rushing yards this game

Your offensive line is superb in run blocking, but struggling to pass block as the defense is constantly blitzing and blitzing well

Do you

a) Run it twice and back what has made you successful to score the touchdown

b) Run it at least the first time, then fall back to the pass if you need to

c) Pass it twice?


Scenario 2

You are 20-17 down in overtime. You have to score. Its 2nd and 3.

You know you have to go for it on 4th down if necessary

Your starting quarterback is back in but looking less than 100%, not too mobile and they are going to be coming at him

You have a running back who is over 1,000 yards for the season in 8 games and already has 140 rushing yards this game

Your offensive line is superb in run blocking, but struggling to pass block as the defense is constantly blitzing and blitzing well

Do you

a) Run it, run it and back what has made you successful to get the 3 yards

b) at least run it to start with, then go from there

c) Pass it three times into all out blitzes?


If you answered

a) to both  - ok, a bit conservative but no one can blame you

b) ok, you are playing the percentages, seems reasonable

combinations of a) and b) depending on the situation, fair enough

c) Congratulations you are the Offensive co-ordinator of the Dallas Cowboys!


Which is all a long way of saying that our Philadelphia Eagles bets caught a massive break last night, with Dallas losing 20-17

Hail to the ****ing Redskins

Click to see full-size image.

oh, we lost £10 yesterday, Zamra unplaced at Redcar

[TightEnd]

Have just cashed out my Poshies top six bet for a small loss - didn't know 365 had that facility.

Have no idea where this team is going this season but I'd rather follow it without a long-term financial interest. Too tilting.

our bet was placed by Dubai

I do not know where he has it?

7-Sep   chompy   dubai   may-2015   football   league one top six   Peterborough   4/6   300

[TightEnd]

Sorry for the delay guys.  Been struggling to get on the NBA stuff.  Racing Post are doing a season preview tomorrow in their sports section so might be worth a read if you are interested in other views. 

Here are the selections:

Outright - Corals have gone bonkers on this offering top price every team plus 1/2 1,2 ew terms in an incredibly bad ew race as the Eastern Conference only has 2 or 3 teams with a real chance of winning their conference (the place part of a win bet is effectively a bet to win their conference).  For example the Cavs are the favs at 7/2 (4.1-4.2 on bf) with coral so 7/4 to place but they are a general even money to win the eastern conference.

I have bet the following teams in the outright market all e/w with coral.  http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Cavs 7/2  £50 ew for fred
Bulls 17/2 £20 ew for fred
Clippers 12/1 £20 ew for fred
Raptors 66/1 £10 ew for fred9

Of the favs i want to oppose at the prices Spurs are really getting too old now as a team.  Happy to oppose them in the tough Western Conference at the prices.  OKC best player Durant is injured for at least the first month.  The Clippers are a young hungry team close to peaking and i feel they should be a lot shorter than 12/1 in the outright market with no health issues.

The 3 East bets are all very strong ev bets ew wise given the lopsided market towards the West.  Raptors are obviously linked to my maximum bet below as i make them the 3rd best team in the Eastern conference (reg season win totals have them joint 3rd favs with the wizards but the Wizards are half the price generally)

Divisional betting:

Maximum bet here.  Toronto to win their Division.  http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/atlantic-division/winner

This is a classic spot of having a division with an unfashionable team (Toronto) in a division with 4 other teams.  Two of them have literally no chance of winning this division and will be deliberately losing games and tanking to get better draft picks.  The other two teams are two of the biggest market teams in the league who are over rated by the bookies and have big salary cap issues in their teams. (Knicks and Nets).  To illustrate this i have included pinnacles over/under regular season win predictions for the teams.  Toronto are in for 48.5 wins (out of 82 games), Nets 41.5 and Knicks 39.5.  The other two teams are in for 15 wins (76ers - potentially the worse team in NBA history this season) and Boston 27.5 wins. 

https://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Basketball+Props/NBA/Lines.aspx

Given this gulf in estimated wins i would have thought Toronto would have been big odds on to win this division.  Yet we are able to back them at 6/5 in places and pretty much evens or odds against everywhere else.  I am recommending a maximum £300 bet at 6/5 or 11/10 on Toronto for fred.

For similar reasons on the reg season wins the SA Spurs are value at 5/6 to win their division with bwin.  £60 recommeneded.  With a £10 saver on Dallas at 10/1 with hills in the same division.  Dallas should be clear 2nd favs based on reg seasons win projections.  Houston are a terrible 2nd fav in this market and create all the value. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/southwest-division/winner

Other special markets where i have had bets will be posted tomorrow once i am fully on myself.

thank you for these

i have some problems though, because Coral and Betvictor accounts do not have the balances to place the bets

Coral is in part because they are such a shower of rubbish that i haven't pressed for the account to be topped up, out of principle

Anyway, i did the first bet, for now of the Coral ones

CLE Cavaliers7/2Championship Winner - 10/06/2015
Each Way 1/2 1,2
Stake £100.00
Estimated Return:£362.50
Total Stake: £100.00
Potential Return: £362.50


for betvictor

NBA Divisions 2014/15 Toronto Raptors (Atlantic Division - Outright) Odds: 6/5 Stake: 100.00 Possible Return:  220.00

am waiting for a transfer of funds there, so will top up when that happens



28 Oct 2014 - NBA - Southwest Division 2014/15 - Division Winner

Dallas Mavericks @ 10/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
110.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001119/F



    Type of bet
    Bet slip ID
    Date
    Total stake
    Possible winnings

    Single bet
    1TNG2D1DPS
    10/28/2014 9:45 AM
    60.00 GBP
    109.80 GBP

Date       Event    Bet    Pick    Result    Odds
5/1/2015 12:00:00 AM    OPEN    NBA 2014/15 NBA Southwest Division    Division Winner    San Antonio    ?    1.83

[TightEnd]

I think Rangers are overpriced tomorrow night in the League Cup at home to St Johnstone.  St Johnstone are one of the clubs that take all cup competition seriously and after last seasons Scottish cup success they have set out their stall of hoping for two more decent cup runs.  I don't see how they are as bg as  15/4 (VC) Worth a small bet £20 or so. 

You think Rangers are under-priced

 Rangers v St Johnstone St Johnstone (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 15/4 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  95.00