Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

With an eye to semi final, Allen has been below par today.  If he scrapes through this one might be worth opposing in the next round.

he'll be an underdog to Maguire or Murphy, but could bounce back easily?

terrible match this afternoon, it has to be said

Matches against Perry can be poor and dis jointed.  I wouldn't be over reacting too much to that performance.  The semi will be very close to a coin flip.  I would have Allen as a very slight fav v Maguire and a very slight dog to murphy.

Maguire or Murphy tonight?

I like Maguire and see he is 6/5 outsider

Murphy a slight choker these days when i see him, and Maguire has been consistently getting to final 4's, finals etc

[DungBeetle]

With an eye to semi final, Allen has been below par today.  If he scrapes through this one might be worth opposing in the next round.

he'll be an underdog to Maguire or Murphy, but could bounce back easily?

terrible match this afternoon, it has to be said

Matches against Perry can be poor and dis jointed.  I wouldn't be over reacting too much to that performance.  The semi will be very close to a coin flip.  I would have Allen as a very slight fav v Maguire and a very slight dog to murphy.

Yeah I'd have Allen fav against Maguire and pickem v Murphy.  Would oppose on both counts

[Matt.NFFC.]

Following on from betting against my team last week and scooping, we have Derby away tomorrow.  I can't see any way whatsoever of getting a result tomorrow.

The reasons are:

Forest are on a dismal run which has lasted weeks.
Assombalonga is doubtful for the game
Pearce does not have a clue
We are in a worse state than this time last year (and we lost 5 nil at Derby)
Confidence is at an all time low
Derby are better than last season
If/when we concede, we are unable to get back into games as we are clueless.

I'd like to suggest the handicap again, this time Derby -1 @ 19/10.  I think the bookies have got it wrong because they are taking into account the local derby aspect.  The reality is we have a terrible record there and we are quite simply very poor compared to a well organised and solid Derby outfit.

Just fill your boots guys, put what you like on for the thread if you wish.   For the record, I have backed this and also a small bet on 4 - 0 Derby.

If you think the price is right then of course that's fine as the thread always looks for value so steer clear, emotion aside, I just can't get enough of Derby tomorrow, they should be 4/9 at least IMO for a straight win.

i'm a little bit wary of this (accepting that you watch Forest)

we all know the recent form

- Derby are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, winning the last four

- Forest have not won any of their last eight games in all competitions, losing five.

so do the prices we are being offered.

 8/11 outright will be as short as either team has been against the other for a long time, in what are always big local derbies?

i suppose you think Forest are that bad that there is more to go at opposing them until Pearce goes etc etc

no problem with getting on, but i am just pondering the value (or lack of it) angle.

These games are tough because if Forest get hammered tomorrow Pearce is probably sacked.  He might have already lost the dressing room or they might still be pulling for him and put a monster effort in tomorrow.  Think the local derby factor is overrated in betting.  Pullien has shown over the years it makes little difference but i am sure bookies still over react to it.  I hate backing odds on in the Championship but it's hard to see Derby going off bigger than 8/11 for this imo.

It's pretty clear Derby are a top 3 side in this Division.  It is much harder to say where Forest currently are (not their actual league position now obviously but where they would should be in the league - ie what they are currently ranked as a team in the div in order to accurately grade them for this game - based on their recent form and how much of that is down to variance) therefore this makes it so much harder to price up the game imo.

As Dung says though Derby are missing key players and the big firms know they are going to lay Derby at any price tomorrow with it being the first game of the weekend live on sky (there is no early EPL game on tv tomorrow) so the carrot of 8/11 has to be questioned strongly because they could go 8/13 and probably still lay it as a starting game in most accas.

It's a fair point guys regarding the value etc.....

But just from what I have seen this season, having been a number of times, the standard of football has just gone downhill severely, and I just don't feel the players have got it in them to put on any kind of performance, let alone one that will be enough to compete against a well organised team in Derby.

Suggest a small £5 for interest, if the thread feels the value is not there?

[arbboy]

Following on from betting against my team last week and scooping, we have Derby away tomorrow.  I can't see any way whatsoever of getting a result tomorrow.

The reasons are:

Forest are on a dismal run which has lasted weeks.
Assombalonga is doubtful for the game
Pearce does not have a clue
We are in a worse state than this time last year (and we lost 5 nil at Derby)
Confidence is at an all time low
Derby are better than last season
If/when we concede, we are unable to get back into games as we are clueless.

I'd like to suggest the handicap again, this time Derby -1 @ 19/10.  I think the bookies have got it wrong because they are taking into account the local derby aspect.  The reality is we have a terrible record there and we are quite simply very poor compared to a well organised and solid Derby outfit.

Just fill your boots guys, put what you like on for the thread if you wish.   For the record, I have backed this and also a small bet on 4 - 0 Derby.

If you think the price is right then of course that's fine as the thread always looks for value so steer clear, emotion aside, I just can't get enough of Derby tomorrow, they should be 4/9 at least IMO for a straight win.

i'm a little bit wary of this (accepting that you watch Forest)

we all know the recent form

- Derby are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, winning the last four

- Forest have not won any of their last eight games in all competitions, losing five.

so do the prices we are being offered.

 8/11 outright will be as short as either team has been against the other for a long time, in what are always big local derbies?

i suppose you think Forest are that bad that there is more to go at opposing them until Pearce goes etc etc

no problem with getting on, but i am just pondering the value (or lack of it) angle.

These games are tough because if Forest get hammered tomorrow Pearce is probably sacked.  He might have already lost the dressing room or they might still be pulling for him and put a monster effort in tomorrow.  Think the local derby factor is overrated in betting.  Pullien has shown over the years it makes little difference but i am sure bookies still over react to it.  I hate backing odds on in the Championship but it's hard to see Derby going off bigger than 8/11 for this imo.

It's pretty clear Derby are a top 3 side in this Division.  It is much harder to say where Forest currently are (not their actual league position now obviously but where they would should be in the league - ie what they are currently ranked as a team in the div in order to accurately grade them for this game - based on their recent form and how much of that is down to variance) therefore this makes it so much harder to price up the game imo.

As Dung says though Derby are missing key players and the big firms know they are going to lay Derby at any price tomorrow with it being the first game of the weekend live on sky (there is no early EPL game on tv tomorrow) so the carrot of 8/11 has to be questioned strongly because they could go 8/13 and probably still lay it as a starting game in most accas.

It's a fair point guys regarding the value etc.....

But just from what I have seen this season, having been a number of times, the standard of football has just gone downhill severely, and I just don't feel the players have got it in them to put on any kind of performance, let alone one that will be enough to compete against a well organised team in Derby.

Suggest a small £5 for interest, if the thread feels the value is not there?

Couldn't disagree with that however, IF they have got a performance in them, then it will be tomorrow surely?  That's the key.  You have to look at both sides of losing the dressing room.  I listened to a couple of Pearce interviews this week and he sounds like he knows he is on borrowed time and massively under the cosh.

[Kmac84]

I like James Keatings for FGS in Rangers v Hearts game this evening 7/1 with Mountains, VC,  Spoil.  Shorter most other places.   Worth a £10 minimum.    I might flick another one up when i see the teams.  

I'm having a small bet on a red card @ 2/1 there have been 2 sendings off in previous games and there is likely to be no love lost again tonight.  Also pretty bad conditions with snow/rain and wind for most of today in Glasgow.  Only takes a slip at the wrong time to end up on wrong side.  Also some comments made by players from both sides through the week that will have irked others.  

[TightEnd]

I like James Keatings for FGS in Rangers v Hearts game this evening 7/1 with Mountains, VC,  Spoil.  Shorter most other places.   Worth a £10 minimum.    I might flick another one up when i see the teams. 

I'm having a small bet on a red card @ 2/1 there have been 2 sendings off in previous games and there is likely to be no love lost again tonight.  Also pretty bad conditions with snow/rain and wind for most of today in Glasgow.  Only takes a slip at the wrong time to end up on wrong side.  Also some comments made by players from both sides through the week that will have irked others. 

no Keatings

Rangers XI v Hearts: Simonsen, Foster, McCulloch, McGregor, Wallace, Aird, Hutton, Law, Smith, Miller, Daly.

Hearts XI v Rangers: Alexander, Paterson, Wilson, Ozturk, Gomis, Walker, Nicholson, Buaben, Zeefuik, McGhee, Eckersley.

[TightEnd]

    Bet Reference: 689093889
    Single
            Derby v Nottingham Forest
            Derby 19/10     (-1)
        Goal Handicap
    Total Stake: (10.00 x 1) 10.00
    Possible Payout (inc. stake) 29.00

As above for Matt

[TightEnd]

I'm having a small bet on a red card @ 2/1 there have been 2 sendings off in previous games and there is likely to be no love lost again tonight.  Also pretty bad conditions with snow/rain and wind for most of today in Glasgow.  Only takes a slip at the wrong time to end up on wrong side.  Also some comments made by players from both sides through the week that will have irked others. 

 Rangers v Hearts Yes (Will A Red Card Be Shown - 90 Mins) Odds: 2/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  30.00

[tikay]

I like James Keatings for FGS in Rangers v Hearts game this evening 7/1 with Mountains, VC,  Spoil.  Shorter most other places.   Worth a £10 minimum.    I might flick another one up when i see the teams.  

I'm having a small bet on a red card @ 2/1 there have been 2 sendings off in previous games and there is likely to be no love lost again tonight.  Also pretty bad conditions with snow/rain and wind for most of today in Glasgow.  Only takes a slip at the wrong time to end up on wrong side.  Also some comments made by players from both sides through the week that will have irked others.  

Nutjob.

[MereNovice]

From 8.30am tomorrow morning, we’re pushing out the price on this weekend’s big odds-on favourite, so make sure you set that alarm and get ready to take advantage of 2/1 SPRINTER SACRE to win the 3.00 Ascot.

Maximum £10 with Coral.

[Kmac84]

Yeah Keatings is a sub.  Sigh.    

Just for an interest I have backed Zeefuik.  Looks a decent player, but probably needs to lose a stone or two.  

[Tal]

From 8.30am tomorrow morning, we’re pushing out the price on this weekend’s big odds-on favourite, so make sure you set that alarm and get ready to take advantage of 2/1 SPRINTER SACRE to win the 3.00 Ascot.

Maximum £10 with Coral.

They're 2/1 on tautology, too.

[Kmac84]

This game is going to be called off in next few minutes. 

[tikay]

This game is going to be called off in next few minutes. 

Bunch of softies up there.

[Kmac84]

This game is going to be called off in next few minutes. 

Bunch of softies up there.

True. 

Seems Rangers couldn't afford to turn on the under soil heating.  Bad times, likely to be followed by more bleak times.