Tips for Tikay

[swinebag22]

Spurs 4/5 v WHU
Everton 4/5 v Leicester
Soton v Liverpool 2/1

All these prices seem a touch too big. All have Europa league matches the previous Thursday so i imagine that may affect the price. The questions are, do teams really struggle in their next game after a Euro tie or is it a media driven myth? Does anyone have any stats on teams league form after Europa league matches? Am I just wrong about the prices being too big?

[TightEnd]

Spurs 4/5 v WHU
Everton 4/5 v Leicester
Soton v Liverpool 2/1

All these prices seem a touch too big. All have Europa league matches the previous Thursday so i imagine that may affect the price. The questions are, do teams really struggle in their next game after a Euro tie or is it a media driven myth? Does anyone have any stats on teams league form after Europa league matches? Am I just wrong about the prices being too big?

not sure of the answer but eg look at this

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/does-a-europa-league-hangover-exist

obviously we are in low sample sizes etc but iirc this was a narrative for Hull, swansea, everton etc in recent years

doesn't a lot depend on where the thursday game is, and whether there is recovery trime?

eg home on thursday, home on sunday...no issue....in ukraine on thursday, away on the sunday then it has been an issue

[TightEnd]

No daily report today..no bets completed and no activity on our bets

highlights of yesterday

Williamson top scored and Boult swung it round corners as NZ win a low scoring match in verdant Dunedin

Click to see full-size image.

One of the best developed of the old grounds, Deepdale saw a good one as Preston led then fell 3-1

Click to see full-size image.

Rooney was up front again, a rare respite from recreating the glory days of Claude Makalele in front of his back four

Click to see full-size image.

the draw for the quarters threw up a big one. For Bradford and Reading, playing each other to get to Wembley

LIVERPOOL v Blackburn
Bradford v Reading
MAN UTD v ARSENAL
A VILLA v WEST BROM

The new venue for the Welsh Open is like a "shopping mall", according to defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan, who won twice on the opening day.

Click to see full-size image.

still watching this market:

LMA Manager of the Year: Mourinho EVS Koeman 2/1 Allardyce 6/1 Pellegrini 8/1 Dyche 20/1

tonight sees the champions league back with Chelsea at PSG

Peterborough are at Bristol C in league one

any thoughts welcome

[exstream]

Spurs 4/5 v WHU
Everton 4/5 v Leicester
Soton v Liverpool 2/1

All these prices seem a touch too big. All have Europa league matches the previous Thursday so i imagine that may affect the price. The questions are, do teams really struggle in their next game after a Euro tie or is it a media driven myth? Does anyone have any stats on teams league form after Europa league matches? Am I just wrong about the prices being too big?

not sure of the answer but eg look at this

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/does-a-europa-league-hangover-exist

obviously we are in low sample sizes etc but iirc this was a narrative for Hull, swansea, everton etc in recent years

doesn't a lot depend on where the thursday game is, and whether there is recovery trime?

eg home on thursday, home on sunday...no issue....in ukraine on thursday, away on the sunday then it has been an issue

I think Spurs europa league hangover was either well documented or just over exaggerated in recent seasons as looking at this season, I think the record is 3 wins 4 losses, one loss to liverpool at start of season. Maybe was worse last season, on phone.
I know someone said about west hams injury problems in the cup last week too?

[TightEnd]

with the Grand national weights out, if anyone sees anything that really stands out, let me know

Click to see full-size image.

"A potential ride for Tony McCoy in what will be his last National, the John Kiely-trained Carlingford Lough has been allotted 11st 10lb by handicapper Phil Smith with a rating of 161, leaving the Irish Hennessy winner 5lb 'well-in' compared to his official mark of 166.

Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last year and also has 11st 10lb to carry, with his trainer Jim Culloty having another candidate in Spring Heeled (10st 12lb), like his stablemate a winner at the Festival last March.

Irish Grand National hero and ante-post favourite Shutthefrontdoor (11st 2lb) forms part of McCoy's options, as does Sunnyhillboy (10st 8lb), and is one of three fancies for Jonjo O'Neill together with Merry King (10st 5lb).

Paul Nicholls has seven entries and chief among them is Unioniste in the colours of John Hales, successful with Neptune Collonges in 2012, when he had Sunnyhillboy a nose back in second. The grey has been given 11st 6lb and is 2lb better off than his British Horseracing Authority figure.

Pineau De Re raced to glory for Dr Richard Newland 12 months ago and has 8lb more to carry this year with 11st, while runner-up Balthazar King has 3lb more on 11st 2lb and third home Alvarado 1lb more on 10st 3lb.

Of the 96 possibles, 25 are Irish-trained and one (River Choice) hails from France."

[arbboy]

why do the weights for the GN have to come out so many weeks before the actual race?  Never understood why this is the case?  Horse finishes 2nd in the Gold cup at Chelt then is incredibly thrown in on it's pre Chelt hcap rating for example.  Rough Quest 1996 for example goes off 4/1 fav and gags up.  Just don't get why they can't wait until after Cheltenham to do the weights.  Anyone know why?

[Tal]

Any merit in backing McCoy's ride at 25/1 and laying some off when all the fivers and tenners inevitably sharpen the price to 14/1?

[Marky147]

Any merit in backing McCoy's ride at 25/1 and laying some off when all the fivers and tenners inevitably sharpen the price to 14/1?

We don't know which one he's on

[TightEnd]

Any merit in backing McCoy's ride at 25/1 and laying some off when all the fivers and tenners inevitably sharpen the price to 14/1?

We don't know which one he's on

the suggestion was that if he rode shutthefrontdoor it would go off at 5/1

then the timeform man said, on the thing i was following this morning "but he'll ride carlingford lough" in his opinion better in at the weights and better form

but tell me which one he will ride and we can back it and lay it off when the housewives money comes on the day!

[Tal]

Any merit in backing McCoy's ride at 25/1 and laying some off when all the fivers and tenners inevitably sharpen the price to 14/1?

We don't know which one he's on

the suggestion was that if he rode shutthefrontdoor it would go off at 5/1

then the timeform man said, on the thing i was following this morning "but he'll ride carlingford lough" in his opinion better in at the weights and better form

but tell me which one he will ride and we can back it and lay it off when the housewives money comes on the day!

Misread the article. Aye, keep an eye out and let's value munch when the opportunity presents.

[Tonibell]

Carlingford Lough is pretty small for a 'chaser. On the basis* he's just in there so JP's live one gets a better weight I've had a nibble at 12s on the favourite (expecting him to go off about 8-1).

*Guesswork, angle-shooting.

[Edit: Wasn't it Phil Smith, the BHA Head handicapper, who said AP should be riding CL and that Shutthefrontdoor's Irish National was crap?]

[TightEnd]

Carlingford Lough is pretty small for a 'chaser. On the basis* he's just in there so JP's live one gets a better weight I've had a nibble at 12s on the favourite (expecting him to go off about 8-1).

*Guesswork, angle-shooting.

[Edit: Wasn't it Phil Smith, the BHA Head handicapper, who said AP should be riding CL and that Shutthefrontdoor's Irish National was crap?]

could be yes. half listening, maybe got the interviewee confused

[Tonibell]

Found it. Here's his 'reasoning'.

Click to see full-size image.

[BigAdz]

If Carlingford Lough wins the Gold Cup, i can't see them going for the National after what happened to Synchronised(died in GN having won GC, in same colours).

Regardless of the Irish national being poor, Shut still came out and looked good in last run, and clearly geared at this for a long time.

Of the two i would defo be on Shut.

Hopefully Jonjo has something to beat them both.

[TightEnd]

are Chelsea a big price at nearly 2/1?

as its a first leg (mourinho tactics, defence key etc) is it a game we should bet on anyway?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/psg-v-chelsea/winner

PSG

- finished as runners up to Barcelona in Group F.

- They led the group from then until the final round of matches where a 3-1 defeat to Barca in Camp Nou cost them top spot.

- third in the Ligue 1 table, with 49 points from 13 wins, 10 draws and two defeats.

- Lucas Moura, Marquinhos, Serge Aurier and Yohan Cabaye will all miss the match through injury. Edinson Cavani was an unused sub in the 2-2 draw with Caen, but is expected to come into the starting XI, as is Thiago Motta and Adrien Rabiot.

Chelsea,

- come into this game following a break at the weekend

- Costa is available. Cuadrado too

- In the Champions League Group G, they only dropped points at home to Schalke and away at Maribor (both 1-1).


- These two sides met in the quarter-finals last season

- PSG won the 1st leg 3-1 in an atypical Chelsea performance, then went out on away goals

19/10 Mourinho gets it tactically right tonight?


over to you

As usual, we don't have to have a bet, but we can discuss