Tips for Tikay

[Woodsey]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

[The Camel]

Do you think this is the best e/w race of the year?  Shortest price I have backed e/w was Novak djokovic 4/6 in a e/w treble.

One of the best ew races since they changed the place payout from 1/4 odds all races about 30 years ago.

[arbboy]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

Stick in one of those Noel Wilson 1000/1 shots as insurance against a nonner and I'd be a great deal less stressed out.

But by saying that you are making ew theives sound like arbers and arbers sound like risk taking degens!  I remember when you said arbers were scum and never took a risk!

I'm a million to ever have this bet, but if I did I wouldn't arb the place, I'd just hedge the win part.

Do you just not bet short odds on then?  If i offered you 1/3 about arsenal finishing in the top 4 would u decline even though it was a 1/5 shot on bf?  I am just interested in your mindset why you can't back a 5/4 shot ew but you can back a 2/1 shot ew that's all.

[The Camel]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

[Larry David]

Placing an e/w treble or greater you are compounding the overbroke.  Big difference in my opinion.  Over the long haul backing bad e/w doubles/trebles will make profit long term compounding the odds.

[The Camel]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

Stick in one of those Noel Wilson 1000/1 shots as insurance against a nonner and I'd be a great deal less stressed out.

But by saying that you are making ew theives sound like arbers and arbers sound like risk taking degens!  I remember when you said arbers were scum and never took a risk!

I'm a million to ever have this bet, but if I did I wouldn't arb the place, I'd just hedge the win part.

Do you just not bet short odds on then?  If i offered you 1/3 about arsenal finishing in the top 4 would u decline even though it was a 1/5 shot on bf?  I am just interested in your mindset why you can't back a 5/4 shot ew but you can back a 2/1 shot ew that's all.

Of course I've bet long odds on.

I've just never really considered betting 5/4 shots ew before. You'd never get laid in a shop and it would be impossible for me to get on online.

When I had a 365 acct on double limits I could have, but like backing fgs ew when their team are 1/12 or shorter to win, I would imagine just one of those would get your acct closed.

[Woodsey]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

[arbboy]

Placing an e/w treble or greater you are compounding the overbroke.  Big difference in my opinion.  Over the long haul backing bad e/w doubles/trebles will make profit long term compounding the odds.

Sure they will but so will my bets as singles.  in a double or a treble you still have the same amount running onto each leg as a single then onto another single then onto another single.  By betting singles you don't multiple the negative ev on the win part of the multiple which you have conveniently forgotten as part of your analysis.

[The Camel]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

Read the last two pages of the thread.

You will be getting 6/16 about the place part which is it 1/5 to win.

Best value bet you'll have.

[Larry David]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Look at southwell ot wolverhampton, usually some kind of sneaky betting coup will be going down whilst all eyes are on the festival.

[Marky147]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

There is lazy, and there is Woodsey

Just read the last 2 pages, and it should go some way to explaining it...

[Larry David]

You would be mad not to take 1/3 on a 1/5 shot as long as you were able to hedge.

[Woodsey]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

There is lazy, and there is Woodsey

Just read the last 2 pages, and it should go some way to explaining it...

Yeah I know and I have, but I have so little understanding about betting on horses that I need an ABC book lol. Anyway I will have a shot ....

[arbboy]

Plus it happens often enough that a horse is kicked at the start and gets withdrawn, or looks like it's about to refuse to race, and gets withdrawn by the starter, to make this all pretty scary. Totally get the logic behind it though.

Stick in one of those Noel Wilson 1000/1 shots as insurance against a nonner and I'd be a great deal less stressed out.

But by saying that you are making ew theives sound like arbers and arbers sound like risk taking degens!  I remember when you said arbers were scum and never took a risk!

I'm a million to ever have this bet, but if I did I wouldn't arb the place, I'd just hedge the win part.

Do you just not bet short odds on then?  If i offered you 1/3 about arsenal finishing in the top 4 would u decline even though it was a 1/5 shot on bf?  I am just interested in your mindset why you can't back a 5/4 shot ew but you can back a 2/1 shot ew that's all.

Of course I've bet long odds on.

I've just never really considered betting 5/4 shots ew before. You'd never get laid in a shop and it would be impossible for me to get on online.

When I had a 365 acct on double limits I could have, but like backing fgs ew when their team are 1/12 or shorter to win, I would imagine just one of those would get your acct closed.

Impossible on a new account or on your accounts which are all restricted to 1%?  365 have the champ hurdle in for £5k liab overnight i would be amazed if it isnt £25k minimum tomorrow morning for a new/unrestricted account.  Do you really think at 125pm tomorrow afternoon just before the supreme the horse racing guys would even notice a £1k or £2k ew on a 5/4 coming through at 365?  They would just assume it was a £2k win bet as 'no one would bet a 5/4 shot ew'.  Do it two or three times at each firm at different times tomorrow online on clean brand new just opened for cheltenham accounts.  Have a go you might surprise yourself.  Welcome to the super high risk world of being an proper high stake/risk 'arber' rather than an ew thief!

[arbboy]

You would be mad not to take 1/3 on a 1/5 shot as long as you were able to hedge.

You would be mad as a serious punter to not take it even if you can't hedge!  The ev edge is massive.  It is the same as being a bookie and laying 3/1 about a 5/1 shot.  It is dream business yet 99% of punters are scared to death to do it.  Baffles me.  Imagine being at Cheltenham in the ring tomorrow and being able to lay Jezki win only at 3/1 instead of 5/1?  It is the same bet.  Would you need to be able to hedge laying Jezki at 3/1 in order to lay it??

Why are people over joyed to take 2/1 about a 13/8 shot but won't take 1/3 about a 1/5 shot?

Proability is a big long line between 0% and 100%. If the bet you have is always the right side of the probability line compared to its true price then why is it deemed risky backing a 1/3 shot which should be 1/5 but not risky backing a 2/1 shot that should be 13/8?

 As long as every bet you have is staked correctly in your own bankroll relative to the ev edge you have on the said bet why is it risky backing a 1/20 shot that should be 1/100?  EV is EV.